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Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil

Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil. Woking LA21 HG Wells Centre 29 September 2010 David Strahan www.odac-info.org. Why they call it peak oil. Source: ASPO. Why oil peaks. UK North Sea oil production by field. Source: UKERC, DECC. Why it matters.

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Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil

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  1. Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil Woking LA21 HG Wells Centre 29 September 2010 David Strahan www.odac-info.org

  2. Why they call it peak oil Source: ASPO

  3. Why oil peaks UK North Sea oil production by field Source: UKERC, DECC

  4. Why it matters • Oil supplies 95% transport energy • Agriculture: producing 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil energy. • Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and lubricants • Oil drives gas and power prices • Oil price spikes cause recessions

  5. Peak oil and climate change CO2 emissions by sector 28bn tCO2 2007 Source data: IEA WEO 2009

  6. The primacy of oil Global primary energy by fuel 12026 Mtoe, 2007 Source data: IEA Renewables Data, 2009

  7. Where the oil goes Oil use by function 85m barrels / day Source data: ITPOES, 2010

  8. Oil producers (98)

  9. Post peak oil producers (64)

  10. Couldn’t we find some more? Source: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell

  11. Non-conventionals slow Tar sands output 2035: 6.3 mb/d ? Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands, IHS CERA 2009 Conventional depletion to 2030: 60 mb/d Global Oil Depletion, UKERC, 2009

  12. We’re all peakists now…. Sadad al-Huseini 2004 Kenneth Deffeyes 2005 Bank Macquarie 2009 Colin Campbell 2010 Petrobras 2010 ITPOES 2014 Total 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2015 PFC Energy 2020 UKERC ‘significant risk’ pre-2020 Shell 2020s IEA 2020-30

  13. Are we there yet? Source: Energyquote

  14. Impacts • Oil price volatility, rising spikes • Serial recessions • Shrinking fuel supply • Short term outages – 2000 revisited? • Sooner than climate change!

  15. Biofuels inadequate • ‘1st generation’: food crops In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20% cropland (IEA) • ‘2nd generation’: woody biomass World transport fuel demand = land area of China (Strahan) • Not low carbon!

  16. Hydrogen wasteful Source: BMW

  17. BEV potential massive Source: SustainAbility

  18. Two birds, one stone CO2 emissions by sector 28bn tCO2 2007 Source data: IEA WEO 2009

  19. Large vehicles - biogas Biomethane could provide 16% UK transport fuel (NSCA, 2006) Public transport consumes <5% Sources: NSCA, DfT

  20. How to reach a world beyond oil • Decarbonize electricity supply • Electrify ground transport and heat • Biogas for heavy transport • Demand reduction • Carbon pricing

  21. “This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess “…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell “This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP “A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes

  22. Is Woking CHP approach the answer?

  23. Is Woking CHP approach the answer?

  24. Impact of Woking approach Gas use efficiency doubled? Gas consumption cut by c30% 82% electricity self generated: 71% gas fired CHP 11% renewables

  25. Drawbacks of Woking CHP approach • Increased gas dependency • Gas shocks, price volatility • Inflexibility: harder to balance renewable generation – Danish example • CHP displaces renewables, locks in emissions • Biogas cannot replace natural gas: all UK arable land would produce less than half the necessary biogas – even if demand cut by 30% (Strahan)

  26. Intermittency is solvable West Denmark wind vs demand, 25% wind energy (Jan 2008) West Denmark wind vs demand, 50% wind energy Source: Danish Technological Institute

  27. 100% renewable supergrid? Source data: Mainstream Renewables

  28. Does it have to cost the earth? Power investment to 2030 European/N Africa supergrid: € 1.5 trn (Czisch) (= €0.047 / kWh) BAU Europe $2.4 trn (IEA WEO 2009) BAU global power sector $13.7 trn (IEA WEO 2009)

  29. “This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess “…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell “This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP “A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes

  30. Aren’t we finding lots more oil? Giant oil find by BP reopens debate about oil supplies Guardian, 2 September 2009 BG's Brazilian oil find will 'dwarf' BP's strike in the US Gulf Coast Guardian, 9 September 2009

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