Foreword Initial Considerations Schedule And Objective Vision for Photovoltaics in 2030

1. Future Vision for PVEmiliano Perezagua – (ISOFOTON S.A.)PV TRAC Chairman“Setting RTD priorities for FP 7”Brussels - 4 November 2004

2. A Vision for Photovoltaic Technology for 2030 and beyond • Foreword • Initial Considerations • Schedule And Objective • Vision for Photovoltaics in 2030 • How to reach the Vision • PV Technology Platform • Strategic plan

3. Foreword • PV TRAC (the Photovoltaics Technology Research Advisory Council) was launched on 4 December 2003 by: • Loyola de Palacio – European Commission Vice-President in charge of Energy and Transport • Philippe Busquin– European Commissioner for Research. • PV TRAC members represents major PV stakeholders: • Industry • Researchers • Utilities • Government Agencies • Construction sector (left the council at the second meeting)

4. Foreword • INITIAL REMARKS: The potential for PV is large, but today its penetration in the electricity market is small. • Why is there a gap? • Can we accelerate the “learning” process? • What initiatives should be taken? • What are the costs and benefits for Europe?

5. Foreword THE MISSION: To contribute to a rapid development of a world-class cost competitive European PV for a sustainable electricity production.

6. Considerations • To develop: • A Vision Report • A Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) in order to optimize the contribution of research. • A Communication Strategy. • Recommendations for the next steps to reach the objectives.

7. A Vision for Photovoltaic Technology for 2030 and beyond 1. Current situation • International agenda, European and national policies • PV in the context of Renewable Energies • Status of PV technology, industry and applications 2. Vision for Photovoltaics in 2030 • Technology, industry, economy and energy issues 3. How to reach the Vision • PV Technology Platform • Strategic Plan (incl. SRA) • Main recommendations

8. Current Situation PV technology : • Wafer-based crystalline silicon: dominant, proven technology, high material costs, energy intensive, but large and concrete potential for improvements; • Thin-films: low materials and energy consumption, lower efficiency, further process development & upscaling will lead to major cost reduction.

9. Current situation • PV Industry (2003) Production (re. PV-NET) Market (re. EPIA)

10. Current situation • Systems and Applications • Grid-Connected systems : 80-200 kWh/m2.year, 0.25-0.65 €/kWh • Decentralised generators (roofs, façades) → building integration • Central power plants • Stand-alone systems : • Consumer and industrial applications • Decentralised Rural Electrification : 1.7 billion people without access to electricity services

11. A Vision for PV in 2030 • 2030 is only an intermediate milestone, robust on-going growth beyond 2030 • PV module efficiency : up to 25 % • Systems lifetime > 40 years • System energy pay-back time < 1 year • PV modules and systems based on abundant and non-toxic materials • Crystalline silicon, thin-films and new concepts all present on the market

12. A Vision for PV in 2030 • Virtually all new buildings fitted with PV, some of them net electricity producers • PV electricity costs : factor 5 reduction (0.05 to 0.12 €/kWh in 2030)competitive with retail electricity prices within ten years in large parts of Europe • Strong European industry with significant exports, 200 to 400 thousand jobs including installation activities

13. A Vision for PV in 2030 • PV in the 2030 energy picture: • EU : 200 GWp installed capacity • World : 1,000 GWp ~ 1,000 TWh/year = 4 % of the world electricity consumption ~ today’s electricity consumption of Germany + France • Large-scale dissemination of PV for rural use in Developing Countries : PV electricity provided to > 100 million families • PV robust and safe supplier of energy on grid and in stand-alone mode.

14. How to reach the Vision • Issues • Increasing RTD efforts • Alignment of strategies and goals • Continuity and long-term action • Addressing the barriers • Improving technology transfer • Emphasising manufacturing issues • Enabling critical mass • Joining forces and competencies • Building sustainable markets • Involving stakeholders and decision makers • Defining adequate policy frameworks

15. How to reach the Vision • Establishment of a PV Technology Platform • Strong connection between the 3 areas needed to accelerate the process • Strategic plan covering : • Research and technology • Industry and market • Policy and instruments

16. PV Platform National Programmes Mirror Group Steering Committee PV Secretariat Information, Promotion, Education & Market Deployment Group Science, Technology & Applications Group Policy & Instruments Group Developing Countries Group

17. PV Platform • KEYWORDS: • Open to all • Flexibility • Communication • Harmonization • DEFINING: • Key areas • Key concepts  Common Vision • Key priorities • VALUE: Process to work for the future

18. PV Platform • Real willingness to work together: • Science • Industry • Policy • Joining efforts and goals. • Same vision: • Policy activities • Dissemination • Roadmap for Europe (European Dimension) • Coordinate an efficient regulatory framework

19. The Strategic Plan • The Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) • Coordination of research programmes • Implementation policies and support actions

20. The Strategic Research AGENDA • Four main directions • Basic research • Applied research and development • Demonstration • Supporting research (socio-economic, etc.) • Areas to be addressed • Current technologies (wafer & thin-film technologies) • New and emerging technologies • Balance-of-systems • Building integration • Systems aspects (storage, grid optimization, buildings, etc.) • Manufacturing issues

21. Co-ordination of RTD programmes • PV Technology Platform in FP 7 • Joint Technology Initiative (to be explored) • Dedicated budget line for PV collaborative RTD • European Research Area instruments • Co-ordination of PV RTD programmes • EU: PV ERA-NET, Mirror Group • International: USA, Japan and IEA Implementing Agreement on Photovoltaics • Networks of Excellence

22. Implementation policies and marketcreation • Policy Framework • Incentives / support schemes • Specificity of PV vs other Renewables • Implementation of RES-e directive • Optimisation, Co-ordination and Consensus building • EU financial instruments (Structural and Cohesion Funds) • Access to the grid, building codes, standards

23. Implementation policies and marketcreation • Developing Countries • Strong partnership between development agencies, NGOs, finance sector • Export and Trade • Barriers to be addressed on global, EU and national levels • Communication

24. Main recommendations • Implement the Strategic Research Agenda • Strongly co-ordinate European PV research activities • Facilitate coherent implementation of deployment measures and overcome barriers • Foster joint initiatives and communication plan • Support export and trade • Strengthen partnership with developing countries

25. PV TRAC TEAM Emiliano PEREZAGUA ISOFOTÓN Chairperson Chief Operations Officer François DEMARCQ ADEME Vice-Chairperson General Manager Zhores I. ALFEROV IOFFE PHYSICO-TECHNICAL INSTITUTE Vice President of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR Physics NOBEL Laureate 2000 Viacheslav ANDREEV IOFFE PHYSICO-TECHNICAL INSTITUTE Director of Research Jean-Louis BAL ADEME Director Karen DE SEGUNDO SHELL INTERNATIONAL RENEWABLES B.V. CEO Bernhard DIMMLER WÜRTH SOLAR GMBH & CO. KG Managing Director

26. PV TRAC TEAM Adolf GÖTZBERGER FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Former director Carlos ITOIZ BEUNZA ENERGÍA HIDROELÉCTRICA DE NAVARRA (EHN) Assistant CEO Witold LOJKOWSKI HIGH PRESSURE RESEARCH CENTRE, POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Associate Professor Stefan NOWAK NET Nowak Energy & Technology Ltd Managing Director Chairman IEA PVPS Wim SINKE ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE OF THE NETHERLANDS (ECN) senior staff member Solar Energy Peter van der VLEUTEN FREE ENERGY INTERNATIONAL BV President Ronald van ZOLINGEN SHELL SOLAR Senior Business Advisor PV-TRAC Secretariat EUROPEAN COMMISSION PV team