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What is the Drought Monitor? Past/Present/Future

Learn about the U.S. Drought Monitor, a comprehensive national drought map integrating various indicators to assess drought intensity, extent, and impacts. Explore the importance of local expert input and the role of the Drought Monitor in providing near real-time drought information.

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What is the Drought Monitor? Past/Present/Future

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  1. What is the Drought Monitor?Past/Present/Future • Mark Svoboda, Climatologist • National Drought Mitigation Center • School of Natural Resources • University of Nebraska-Lincoln Drought Monitor Forum Portland, OR October 10-11, 2007

  2. Paraphrasing Forrest Gump on drought: “My mamma always said drought was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”

  3. 1997: WDCC MAP WCWS Evolution……………… 1998: NDMC Drought Monitoring product

  4. 1999:The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies

  5. Approaches to Drought Assessment Single index or Indicator (parameter) Multiple indices or Indicators Composite Indicator

  6. The Drought Monitor Concept • A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map • Trying to capture these characteristics: • the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) • spatial extent • probability of occurrence • Impacts • Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks

  7. Original Objectives • “Fujita-like” scale • NOT a forecast! • NOT a drought declaration! • Identify impacts (A, H) • Assessment of current conditions • Incorporate local expert input • Be as objective as possible

  8. U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30 %tile) D1 Drought – Moderate (20 %tile) D2 Drought – Severe (10 %tile) D3 Drought – Extreme (5 %tile) D4 Drought – Exceptional (2 %tile)

  9. U.S. Drought Monitor • Integrates Key • Drought Indicators: • - Palmer Drought Index • - SPI • - KBDI • Modeled Soil Moisture • - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow • - Precipitation Anomalies • Growing Season: • - Crop Moisture Index • - Sat. Veg. Health Index • Soil Moisture • Mesonet data • In The West: • - SWSI • - Reservoir levels • Snowpack • Streamflow • Created in ArcGIS

  10. Objective Blends • Short-Term Blend 35% Palmer Z Index 25% 3-Month Precip. 20% 1-Month Precip. 13% CPC Soil Model 7% Palmer Drought Index

  11. Objective Blends • Long-Term Blend 25% Palmer Hydrological Index 20% 24-Month Precip. 20% 12-Month Precip. 15% 6-Month Precip. 10% 60-Month Precip. 10% CPC Soil Model

  12. Reservoir Storage Cle Elum Reservoir Vs 1950-2003 2004 2005 2006 Historical Percentiles Current Storage

  13. The Importance of Local Expert Input • The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & “Ground Truth” • Listserver (250 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.) Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices State Climate Offices State Drought Task Forces Regional Climate Centers

  14. USDM Listserve Participants (as of July 2007)

  15. drought.unl.edu/dm

  16. Moving toward state-level trend analysis capabilities (left) and providing more county-level drought assessment information (right).

  17. NDMC has gone mobile! http://drought.unl.edu/mobile

  18. Any Questions? Enhancing near real-time delivery ofdrought information: “Rapid Response”

  19. Thank You Any Questions ? Any Questions? Please contact me at: Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center 402-472-8238 msvoboda2@unl.edu

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