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Presented by Thomas J. Duesterberg President and Chief North American Steel Trade Committee

THE FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REMARKS ON U.S. STIMULUS PROGRAMS REBALANCING THE ECONOMY SO MORE GROWTH COMES FROM INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS. Presented by Thomas J. Duesterberg President and Chief North American Steel Trade Committee Executive Officer November 19, 2010

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Presented by Thomas J. Duesterberg President and Chief North American Steel Trade Committee

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  1. THE FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REMARKS ON U.S. STIMULUS PROGRAMSREBALANCING THE ECONOMY SO MORE GROWTH COMES FROM INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS Presented by Thomas J. Duesterberg President and Chief North American Steel Trade Committee Executive Officer November 19, 2010 Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI

  2. Consumers Have A Balance Sheet Problem That Only Repaying Debt Will Resolve • U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding and Housing Prices Source(s): Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Federal Housing Administration and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI

  3. Credit Loosens For Small Commercial Borrowers • Credit Conditions for Commercial and Industrial Borrowers Source(s): Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Survey, October 2010

  4. Even the Loan Demand Picture Appears to Stabilize • Commercial Loan Demand Source(s): Federal Reserve, Senior Loan Officer Survey, October 2010

  5. Future Consumer Spending Depends on Wage and Job Growth • Wage and Job Growth Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

  6. Rebalancing Growth With More Investment and Exports and Unwinding Federal Stimulus • Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Economic Forecast Source: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

  7. The Pace of Recovery Is Expected to Be Below Average • Inflation-Adjusted GDP Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

  8. Maximum Fiscal and Monetary Policy Stimulus Now; Exit Strategy to Be Determined • Federal Budget and Policy Interest Rate Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

  9. Low, but Accelerating, Inflation; High Unemployment; Massive Public Debt; and Moderate Manufacturing Rebound • Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Economic Forecast Source: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

  10. Manufacturing Recovery Complete in First Quarter 2013; High Tech Recovers in Fourth Quarter 2010, Traditional Manufacturing in Second Quarter 2014 • Manufacturing Industrial Production Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

  11. Moderate Manufacturing Growth • Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Manufacturing Production Forecast Source: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the HIS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

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