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John A. McKinsey Stoel Rives, LLP

Energy in Alaska 2008. Renewable Portfolio Standards and Energy Policy. John A. McKinsey Stoel Rives, LLP. RPS and Alaska. Two Key Questions Should Alaska have an RPS? What effects with RPS trends in the lower 48 have on the Alaskan energy industry.

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John A. McKinsey Stoel Rives, LLP

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  1. Energy in Alaska 2008 Renewable Portfolio Standards and Energy Policy John A. McKinsey Stoel Rives, LLP

  2. RPS and Alaska Two Key Questions • Should Alaska have an RPS? • What effects with RPS trends in the lower 48 have on the Alaskan energy industry

  3. A Perfect Storm: Renewable Energy and Carbon Reduction • What started in the 1970’s as an energy independence movement has evolved intoa full scale re-invention of energy policy and energy culture. • Core Values: • Energy independence • Greenness • Sustainability

  4. Four Energy Policy Ideas • Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS): Require utilities to meet a certain percentage of their demand with renewable energy. • Carbon Regulation: limit, cap or regulate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted. • Bio-Fuel Requirements: Mandate or incentivize blended or pure bio-fuel use • Efficiency Standards: Impose strict standards on buildings efficiency and on transportation efficiency

  5. Renewable Portfolio Standards • Three purposes of RPS • National energy independence • “Greenness” of renewable energy • Sustainability • Status of RPS • Very extensive deployment in the west • Not all state RPS programs the same • Federal RPS?

  6. Renewable Portfolio Standards • So far, really just about electricity: No requirements on the heating or transportation sector • Three purposes of RPS • National energy independence (But, this is misleading) • “Greenness” of renewable energy (But, RPS is not, on-its-face, about green energy and it is not always consistent with this purpose) • Sustainability (This is what RPS is supposed to be about) • Status of RPS • Very extensive deployment in the west • Not all state RPS programs the same • Federal RPS?

  7. Status of RPS • Most western states have something they call a “Renewable Portfolio Standard” • But, they vary by how truly mandatory they are and how enforceable they are • They also vary by what they recognize as “renewable” and by what actual numbers they hold up.

  8. RPS Deployment ME: 30% by 2000 10% by 2017 - new RE MN: 25% by 2025 (Xcel: 30% by 2020) VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% by 2017 *WA: 15% by 2020 • NH: 23.8% in 2025 ND: 10% by 2015 WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal • MA: 15% by 2020 +1% annual increase(Class I Renewables) MT: 15% by 2015 OR: 25% by 2025(large utilities) 5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities) MI: 10% by 2015 RI: 16% by 2020 SD: 10% by 2015 CT: 23% by 2020 • *NV: 20% by 2015 • OH: 25%** by 2025 *UT: 20% by 2025 IA: 105 MW • NY: 24% by 2013 IL: 25% by 2025 • NJ: 22.5% by 2021 • CO: 20% by 2020(IOUs) *10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis) CA: 20% by 2010 • PA: 18%** by 2020 MO: 11% by 2020 • MD: 20% by 2022 • NC: 12.5% by 2021(IOUs) 10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis) • AZ: 15% by 2025 • *DE: 20% by 2019 • DC: 20% by 2020 • NM: 20% by 2020(IOUs) • 10% by 2020 (co-ops) *VA: 12% by 2022 TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 HI: 20% by 2020 State RPS State Goal • Minimum solar or customer-sited RE requirement * Increased credit for solar or customer-sited RE • **Includes separate tier of non-renewable “alternative” energy resources Solar water heating eligible Source: DSIRE (www.dsireusa.org)

  9. RPS and Alaska • RPS is not very well matched, policy-wise, with Alaskan electricity needs. • Alaskan grid characteristics • Spread out grid with many remote points of distribution • Lower maximum demand compared to most lower states • RPS in Alaska: A Policy Mismatch? • Many renewable sources have intermittency issues • RPS imposed in densely populated states primarily because state has significantly outgrown its energy resources

  10. What does RPS mean for Alaska? • Implication of lower 48 State RPS? • Mostly an electricity market issue • But pressure for federal RPS could impose RPS on Alaska as well

  11. Renewable Energy Systems • Wind- sporadic, non-dispatchable and low capacity factor • Biomass- dispatchable, can be baseload • Solar- weather and seasons make for low capacity factor in Alaska • Geothermal- dispatchable baseload, high capacity factor: can be used in remote locations. But Cost and Location limits

  12. What does RPS mean for Alaska? • Trends in Western States • Wind has been the primary new renewable source in most states • Some geothermal • Solar-PV facing key test in California right now • Solar-Thermal testing price limits and encountering significant environmental permitting hurdles

  13. What does RPS mean for Alaska?- continued • Implications to Alaska • Geothermal technology advancing significantly (thanks in part to Alaska and Chena Hot Springs) • Demand for Natural Gas is not threatened by RPS right now since RPS is mostly either filling a portion of growth or offsetting coal, oil or less-efficient gas generators. • Carbon laws and policy may lead to national RPS laws.

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