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The dynamics of correlated novelties

The dynamics of correlated novelties. with V. Servedio S. Strogatz F. Tria. Vittorio Loreto Sapienza University of Rome ISI Foundation, Turin. Bio-techno-social systems. community level. social, interactive. infrastructure level. user level. ICT, networks, physical-digital.

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The dynamics of correlated novelties

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  1. The dynamics of correlated novelties with V. Servedio S. Strogatz F. Tria Vittorio Loreto Sapienza University of Rome ISI Foundation, Turin

  2. Bio-techno-social systems community level social, interactive infrastructure level user level ICT, networks, physical-digital cognitive, behavioural, biologic

  3. A new platform for web-gaming and social computation http://www.xtribe.eu/

  4. Social systems Biology Technology Arts, Science, Architecture, Urbanism, ....

  5. Tinkering Diffusion Serendipity Success Exaptation Ahead of time Trial and Error Mutation / Fixation Multiples

  6. Our lives are spiced with little novelties... a new song a new book a new person a new word a new web page ... ... and often one thing leads to another one innovation sets the stage for another

  7. Consists of all those things (depending on the context, these could be ideas, molecules, genomes, technological products, etc.) that are one step away from what actually exists, and hence can arise from incremental modifications and recombinations of existing material. Adjacent possible The strange and beautiful truth about the adjacent possible is that its boundaries grow as you explore those boundaries. S. A. Kauffman, Investigations (Oxford University Press, New York/Oxford, 2000).

  8. A mathematical framework for the adjacent possible

  9. Is the adjacent possible for real ? Can we find its signature in reality ? Can we model it ?

  10. natural texts

  11. frequency of words rank natural texts Let us imagine a language ...The language is meant to serve for communication between a builder A and an assistant B. A is building with building-stones; there are blocks, pillars, slabs and beams. B has to pass the stones, and that in the order in which A needs them. For this purpose they use a language consisting of the words 'block', 'pillar', 'slab', 'beam'. A calls them out; --B brings the stone which he has learnt to bring at such-and-such a call. -- Conceive of this as a complete primitive language. (L. Wittgenstein) Let us imagine a language ...The language is meant to serve for communication between a builder A and an assistant B. A is building with building-stones; there are blocks, pillars, slabs and beams. B has to pass the stones, and that in the order in which A needs them. For this purpose they use a language consisting of the words 'block', 'pillar', 'slab', 'beam'. A calls them out; --B brings the stone which he has learnt to bring at such-and-such a call. -- Conceive of this as a complete primitive language. (L. Wittgenstein)

  12. Zipf's law in city populations Zipf's law in ecological systems Zipf's law in Web Access Statistics and Internet Traffic Zipf's law in earthquake? Zipf's law in bibliometrics, informetrics, scientometrics, and library science Zipf's law in finance and business Zipf’s law (frequency rank plot) http://www.nslij-genetics.org/wli/zipf/

  13. Gutenberg Project ebook collection documents words distinct words Zipf’s law in texts Zipf’s law

  14. number of distinct words number of words innovation in natural texts Let us imagine a language ...The language is meant to serve for communication between a builder A and an assistant B. A is building with building-stones; there are blocks, pillars, slabs and beams. B has to pass the stones, and that in the order in which A needs them. For this purpose they use a language consistingof the words 'block', 'pillar', 'slab', 'beam'. A callsthem out; --B brings the stone which he has learnt to bringatsuch-and-such a call. -- Conceive of this as a complete primitive language. (L. Wittgenstein) Let us imagine a language ...The language is meant to serve for communication between a builder A and an assistant B. A is building with building-stones; there are blocks, pillars, slabs and beams. B has to pass the stones, and that in the order in which A needs them. For this purpose they use a language consisting of the words 'block', 'pillar', 'slab', 'beam'. A calls them out; --B brings the stone which he has learnt to bring at such-and-such a call. -- Conceive of this as a complete primitive language. (L. Wittgenstein)

  15. Gutenberg Project ebook collection documents words distinct words Heaps’ law in texts

  16. # of new words frequency of words

  17. social annotation

  18. resource user { tags } http://del.icio.us post

  19. high rank Zipf’s law Heaps’ law

  20. English Wikipedia 20 TB (downloaded on March the 7th 2012)

  21. Mother page Red Link Mother page Wikipedia dump 20 TBbytes (3/2012)

  22. # of new edits frequency of edits

  23. Last.fm 1000 users; listened tracks user, time stamp, artist, track-id and track name

  24. Modeling the adjacent possible Everything Should Be Made as Simple as Possible, But Not Simpler. A. Einstein

  25. Polya Urn model with triggering Reinforcement Adjacent possible t t+1 t t+1 Actual history

  26. Urn model with triggering (results) Generalized Zipf’s law + Heaps’ Zipf’s law like Yule-Simon model

  27. First conclusion: Reinforcement + Adjacent possible Zipf’s AND Heaps’ laws

  28. Grounding the notion of “one thing leads to another”

  29. Semantics Mother page Artists Words

  30. Quantifying triggering effects number of occurrences of the label A in number of occurrences of the label A in the interval i Distribution of time intervals between two successive appearances of events belonging to the same semantic group

  31. Results Wikipedia Last.fm Model

  32. Conclusions • Human activities feature strong correlations in their innovation processes • Reinforcement and adjacent possible help explaining how one innovation sets the stage for another.

  33. Relevant fields biology (pangenome, influenza, etc.) • social sciences (opinions, languages, norms, cultural traits, • policy making, marketing, etc.) technology Challenges individual vs. collective behaviors early adoption vs. large-scale spreading multiples and competition of several innovations innovations too far ahead of their time best environments and strategies

  34. Thank you Recent publications C. Cattuto, VL and L. Pietronero, Semiotic Dynamics and Collaborative Tagging, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA (PNAS), 104, 1461-1464 (2007). C. Cattuto, A. Barrat, A. Baldassarri, G. Schehr and VL, Collective dynamics of social annotation, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA (PNAS), 106, 10511-10515 (2009). C. Castellano, S. Fortunato and VL, Statistical physics of social dynamics Rev. Mod. Phys., 81, 591-645 (2009). F. Tria, V.D.P. Servedio, S. Strogatz and VL The dynamics of correlated novelties submitted (2013). Vito D.P. Servedio Steven Strogatz Francesca Tria http://samarcanda.phys.uniroma1.it/vittorioloreto/ http://www.everyaware.eu/ http://www.xtribe.eu/

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