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Year 2003 Model Validation and Summary Report

Year 2003 Model Validation and Summary Report. Deng Bang Lee Manager, Modeling Division Southern California Association of Governments May 22, 2007. Presentation Overview. Input to Model Development New Model Highlights Summary Report. Input to Model Development. Acknowledgement

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Year 2003 Model Validation and Summary Report

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  1. Year 2003 Model Validation and Summary Report Deng Bang Lee Manager, Modeling Division Southern California Association of Governments May 22, 2007

  2. Presentation Overview • Input to Model Development • New Model Highlights • Summary Report

  3. Input to Model Development • Acknowledgement • Validation Working Group Members • Consultant Team • Model Peer Review

  4. Acknowledgement The development of the new SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model would not be possible without significant contribution from various agencies, the consultant team, and SCAG Model Validation Working Group on this project.

  5. Validation Working Group Members • Caltrans – Districts 7, 8 & 12 • Transportation Commissions - • MTA • OCTA • Sanbag • ARB • AQMD • City of Los Angeles, DOT • Consultant team • SCAG Modeling Staff

  6. Consultant Team: • NuStats – Year 2001 Travel Survey • Cambridge Systematics – Model Development & model calibration • Caliper Corp. – Software Conversion & model validation • Dowling Associates – Model’s speed function • Vanasse Hangen Brustlin – Peer Reviews • Ed Granzow – Software enhancement • Hong Kim – Survey interpretation and model calibration

  7. Model Peer Review Purpose of Peer Review: • Assess SCAG’s travel demand modeling practice, • Review/comment on SCAG’s Model Improvement Program • Recommend future model enhancements Three Model Peer Reviews: • November, 2003 – Review Work Plan • April , 2004 – Validation targets and initial review of model components • January, 2006 – Final review and recommendations

  8. New Model Highlights • Trip Based Convergence Model • Covers Entire SCAG Region • Integrated Highway and Transit Networks on GIS Geography • Developed on PC TransCAD Software • Updated Major Model Components • Calibrated to Year 2000 Travel Behavior • Validated to Year 2003 Travel Statistics

  9. Expanded Model Boundary 6 Counties 4 Air Basins 4109 Internal Zones 31 Ports Nodes 12 Airport Nodes 40 Cordon Stations

  10. New Highway Network

  11. New Transit Network

  12. Households by Workers, Age, Size, Vehicles, Income Peak and Off-Peak Highway Networks Additional Zonal and Cost Data Household Classification Model TransitNetworks Truck Model Socioeconomic Data by Zone Airport Trips External Model Trip Assignment Model Time of Day Model Trip Distribution Model Mode ChoiceModel Vehicle Availability Model Trip Generation Model Home-Based Work Strategic Trips by 3 Income Groups Work Logsums Trip Tables by Trip type and mode of travel Households by Vehicles Available Trip Ends by 9 trip purposes and 14 trip types Peak and Off -Peak Trip Tables by 14 trip types Intermediate StopModel Legend Input Files Updated Models Data Output Files SCAG Regional Transportation Modeling Process

  13. 2003 Socioeconomic Data Source: SCAG growth forecast

  14. Population Density

  15. Employment Density

  16. Median Household Income

  17. Summary Report Auto Travel Demand Model • Trip Generation • Detailed Socioeconomic Data • New Vehicle Availability Models • Household Classification Models • Trip Production and Attraction Models • Trip Distribution • Intermediate Stops Model for HBWS • Mode Choice • New Mode Choice Models • Assignment • External Trips Model • Akcelik Volume Delay Functions Heavy-Duty Truck Model • New Port Trips • New External Model • New Enhanced Generation and Distribution Model (on going)

  18. Trip Generation Model • 14 trip types. • Vehicle Availability Model • Census Household Classification Model • Cross-classification Trip Production Models • Multiple Regression Trip Attraction Models

  19. Vehicle Availability Model

  20. Vehicle Availability By County2000 Census & 2000 Model

  21. Comparison Of Vehicle Availability Estimates By RSA(2000 Model vs. 2000 Census)

  22. Trip Generation Trip Types • Home Based Work • Direct (by 3 income categories) • Strategic (by 3 income categories) • Non Home Based • Work-Other • Other-Other • Home Based Non-Work • Shopping • School (K-12) • College • Social/Recreational • Serving Passenger • Other

  23. Trip Production Model

  24. Trip Production Model (cont.)

  25. Trip Production Model (cont.)

  26. Trip Production Model (cont.)

  27. Trip Production Model (cont.)

  28. Trip Production Model (cont.)

  29. Trip Production Model (cont.)

  30. Trip Production Model (cont.)

  31. Trip Attraction Model

  32. 2003 Trip Generation Results

  33. Comparison Of Trip Productions By RSA(2000 Model vs. 2001 Survey) Total Trips

  34. Comparison Of Trip Attractions By RSA(2000 Model vs. 2001 Survey) Total Trips

  35. Trip Distribution • Calibrated friction factors by trip purpose, income group (for work trips), and time period (peak, off-peak), 28 curves in total. • Logsum from mode choice used in trip distribution for home-based work direct trips • Intermediate stop choice models allocate home-based work strategic trips to intermediate stops after mode choice

  36. 2003 Home-Based Work Trip Distribution

  37. 2003 Home-Based Non-Work Trip Distribution

  38. 2003 Non-Home Based Trip Distribution

  39. 2003 Total Trip Distribution

  40. 2003 Trip Length Distribution

  41. Home-Based Work Person Trip Distribution (RSA To RSA)(2000 Model vs. 2000 CTPP)

  42. Home-Based Work Person Trip Distribution (RSA To RSA)(2000 Model vs. 2001 Survey)

  43. Home-Based Non-Work Person Trip Distribution (RSA To RSA)(2000 Model vs. 2001 Survey)

  44. Non-Home Based Person Trip Distribution (RSA To RSA)(2000 Model vs. 2001 Survey)

  45. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  46. Trip Length Frequency Distribution Home-Based Serving Passenger Home-Based School Home-Based Shopping Home-Based College/University

  47. Trip Length Frequency Distribution Home-Based Social/Recreation Home-Based Other Work-Based Other Other-Based Other

  48. Mode Choice Model • Nested Logit models • Separate models for each trip purpose, stratified by peak and off-peak periods • Include non-motorized trips • Model transit trips by mode and access/egress types

  49. In-Vehicle Time (Auto, Transit) HOV time saved (shared ride modes) Distance (bike, walk) Out-of-Vehicle Time (shared ride modes) Transit Time Walk Access Time Wait Time Transfer Time Travel Cost by Household Income Group (all modes) Number of Autos per Person (all modes) CBD Dummy (transit, shared ride modes) Peak Dummy (transit, shared ride modes) Mode Choice Utility Independent Variables

  50. Person Trips Auto Non-Motorized Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy DA SR2 SR3+ Walk Bike Commuter Rail Transit Urban Rail Local Bus Express Bus Walk/Auto Auto/Walk Auto/Auto Walk/Walk Walk Auto Walk Auto Walk Auto Mode Choice Model Nesting StructureHome-Based Work Direct Trips

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