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Gerald Cecil cecil@physics.unc

21 st century energy options: assumptions & complications. Gerald Cecil cecil@physics.unc.edu. Overcoming “spin”. 2 MW. 600 W. The world is changing I feel it in the earth, I feel it in the water, I smell it in the air. Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970,

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Gerald Cecil cecil@physics.unc

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  1. 21st century energy options: assumptions & complications Gerald Cecil cecil@physics.unc.edu

  2. Overcoming “spin” 2 MW 600 W

  3. The world is changing I feel it in the earth, I feel it in the water, I smell it in the air.

  4. Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970, population has doubled since 80% consume less than 10 kWh ($1) daily

  5. <= Constrained by our obsolete energy systems

  6. Petroleum consumed per capita Almost entirely fossil fuels

  7. 2008 BP gulf spill

  8. Combined flow from oil producing countries … Tar sands By 1/2011 78% world oil production from countries past peak For oil flow to increase as in 1980s, rest must double to compensate for this decline.

  9. Remaining conventional oil is still easier Totals from ASPO corrections for over-reporting

  10. DAILY WORLDWIDE Geology MAKES ~400 gallons of crude oil WE CONSUME 9 MILLION times more!

  11. Bracket Oil ProductionDecline

  12. Peak oil means … • World petroleum is a “zero sum” => any new user will displace someone • Our economic development paradigm “send us your resources to develop” is a LIE • Countries cannot develop using existing fuels • New fuels need costly infrastructure, can be weaponized (Iran’s nuclear power)

  13. Pyramid of Supply (energy), NOT Flow (power)

  14. 2025 US energy flow 2005

  15. DOE / QTR 9/11 Rapid electrification of light-vehicle fleet

  16. US Travel: In 2008 … • Drove 5.5 trillionpassenger-miles (22% nearest *) • 176 billion gallons (7trillion kWh) • C-neutral replacement for oil by 2035 • Biomass & biodiesel … small fraction • Electrification … some combination of • < 180 million3 kWesolar tracker modules • < 100,000 wind turbines, each 20 stories high (intermittent) • < 150new 1.2 GWenuclear (+104 now) / CSS-coal plants (400,000 cars/night for each plant) • (Assume EV is 4x ICE efficiency, 1/3 now available for nightly charge)

  17. Tofill gap in US liquid fuel supply + 5 new nukes & plug-in hybrids Biofuels 21% annual growth to 1 Gb/yr by 2020

  18. Addressing liquid fuel crisisis Huge • WW II-scaleenergy/services industry mobilization to build alternatives • Coal-to-liquids for cars, shale gas for electricity • Boost electrification for heating & transport • Better batteries (range) + ultracapacitors (accel.) • Better (hotter, thorium-fueled, passive safety) nuclear reactors for electricity & eventually H fuel cells • Modest contribution but grand-scale deployment of wind turbines (industrial landscape), biofuels • Continued, long-term research on solar cells & fusion

  19. Run your transition @ powerdown.us $4.5 trillion out of US

  20. www.moller.com Prospects for Energy Equity WHO/P.Virot

  21. Thank you! USA Converge to one person : one share of global CO2 emission by target date. Contract to X ppm for 50:50 chance that T change is 2 oC. Clear Process! What to cut?

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