Korean Problem and Northeast Asian Security

1. Korean Problem and Northeast Asian Security Sung Chull Kim

2. Preliminary questions • What does Korea, specifically speaking two Koreas, mean for the Northeast Asian security and peace? • What is the impact of division of Korea and the Korean War on the developmental processes of two Koreas?

3. Korea in Northeast Asia

4. Flags of ROK and DPRK

5. Two Koreas in Northeast Asia: Facts (2003)

6. Development of Korean Problem • “Division of Korea” • “Korean peninsula as the last remaining Cold War zone” • Division of Korea and Korean War - division by international agreement (Germany, Korea, and Vietnam) - experience of war (Korea and Vietnam) • Divergent development path and competition in the Cold War era - North: socialist and autarchic economy, father-son monolithic power - South: export-oriented market economy, dependence on US, democratization • WMD development by North Korea in the Post-Cold War era - end of regime competition between two Koreas - two nuclear developments (1994-1994 and 2002-present)

7. Some points related to the film • See separate sheet

8. Celebration of Independence (1945)

9. State Building in the North • Soviet influence for the early establishment of leadership - Selection of the leader: Kim Il Sung - Why Kim? (1) no experience of engagement in the factional division in communist movement in Korea in 1920s and 1930s; (2) Soviet’s familiarity with Kim who served in the Far Eastern Russia army - Soviet helped Kim by blocking of entry of armed forces from foreign territory, especially from China • In addition to Soviet influence, there were other factors for the rapid formation of state, centered around Kim Il Sung - existence of segments of communists in Korea during the Japanese colonial rule - ideological similarity among the factions after arrest of nationalists

10. North Korean leader, Kim Il Sung (1945)

11. State Building in the North, continue • The development of communist party or worker’s party was, first, to establish a northern branch of the Korean Communist Party of Seoul, and, then, to merge and absorb the center by the northern branch. • Oct. 10-3, 1945: Northern Branch of Korean Communist Party (center was in Seoul) • Feb. 8, 1946: North Korean Provisional People’s Committee (first government body) • Jun. 22, 1946: North Korean Communist Party • Aug. 28-30, 1946: North Korean Worker’s Party (merge between North Korean Communist Party and New Democratic Party) • Aug. 25, 1948: general election for representatives of Supreme People’s Committee (legislature body) • Sep. 9, 1948: establishment of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

12. State Building in the South • Strong US influence and support for Rhee Syngman, but relatively confrontational process in the state formation - Despite no allowance of political organizations by the Military Government led by US forces, there were severe confrontations among political factions of different ideological orientations. - The factions included communists, nationalists, Shanghai interim government leaders, and social democrats. - With the oppression made by the Military Government, the communist escaped to the North, and interim government faction and social democrats were driven out from the political scene. - In the end, Rhee Syngman prevailed in politics.

13. Political Factions in the South

14. State Building in the South, continue • Sep. 9, 1945: Entry of US forces in the southern part; establishment of Military Government • Oct. 16, 1945: arrival of Rhee Syngman in Seoul • Jun. 3, 1945: Rhee Syngman’s advocacy for a separate government in the South • Nov. 14, 1947: UN’s decision for general election in the South alone • May 10, 1948: general election for the constitutional national assembly • Aug. 15, 1948: establishment of Republic of Korea and the First Republic, with president Rhee Syngman

15. South Korean leader, Rhee Syngman (1948)

16. Origins of Korean War (1950-53) • Theories on the origin of the war - Kim Il Sung’s initiative - Stalin’s rollback strategy - internal war between two conflicting communities (North and South Koreas) • The Korean War, mixture of domestic and international factors. - Rhee Syngman's “unification through marching to the North” vs. Kim Il Sung’s “complete domination based on democratic base in the North” - Severe military conflicts around the 38th parallel since June 1949. - It was not all-out struggle, but the war started a year ago. - international support by the Soviet union and China, on the one hand, and the United States, on the other hand.

17. Atcheson Line (January 1950) and exclusion of Korean peninsula from American security umbrella

18. Consequences of the Korean War • Total death toll reached around 2,959,000 - 1,316,579 North Korean soldiers and civilians - 595,000 South Korean soldiers and civilians - 36,940 US soldiers - 500,000 Chinese soldiers • The human disaster of the Korean War outnumbered that of the Vietnam War (death toll 1,900,000). • Unlike the nominal goal of “unification,” presented by the two Koreas, the Korean War contributed to the consolidation of the division. - increase in armed forces: 600,000 in the South vs. 1,100,000 in the North - emergence of dictatorship: Rhee and Park in the South vs. Kim and his son, Kim Jong-il, in the North - divergent path of development: South’s reliance on the United States vs. North’s self-reliance

19. Korean War (1950-53)

20. Autocratic Rule in the South • Rhee Syngman’s autocratic rule - In the midst of Korean War, Rhee adopted the direct presidential election in 1952. - Two years later, he illicitly passed a constitutional amendment permitting lifelong presidency. - In 1960, the election fraud connected with his campaign for a fourth presidential term brought about a massive demonstration. He resigned and fled to Hawaii, where he lived in exile.

21. Autocratic rule in the South, continue • Park Chung-hee’s authoritarian rule - Park took power through military coup in May 1961. - During the period of military government between 1961 and 1963, Park introduced the law banning political activities of the old politicians and established Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) and the Economic Planning Board. These two organizations became the pillars of power and legitimacy. - After promulgation of Yushin in October 1972, Park strengthened the authoritarian rule over the society through presidential measures, weakening of power of the legislative body, and press censorship. - Yushin collapsed with the assassination of president Park by his associate, KCIA director, Kim Jae-kyu on October 26, 1979.

22. Park Chung-hee after military coup (1961)

23. Monolithic rule in the North • The Korean War (1950-1953) and its aftermath contributed to Kim Il Sung’s consolidation of power base. - Kim defeated South-origin communists right after the war broke out. - He expelled Soviet and Chinese factions from the party in the mid-1950s. • The tool for the monolithic rule was Juche ideology. Juche means self-reliance or independence. • The emergence of Kim Jong-il is attributable to his political skills as well as the preparation of power succession for twenty years. - Kim Jong-il successfully presented himself as the authoritative interpreter of the Juche ideology. He promulgated his father Kim Il Sung’ idea as Kimilsungism. Also he publicized Ten Principles for the Establishment of the Monolithic Idea in 1974. - Kim Jong-il became a party secretary in charge of the Organization Department as well as of Department of Propaganda and Agitation in 1973. He began to be deeply involved in the personnel affairs.

24. Power Structure after Kim Il Sung’s death • president - In the preface of the new constitution of 1998, Kim Il Sung is named as “eternal president” of North Korea. - The office of state president was abolished. • National Defense Committee (NDC) - The NDC became “the highest guiding organ of the military and the managing organ of the military affairs.” - The Chairman of the NDC, Kim Jong-il, is in firm control of all the armed forces and in charge of all political economic matters as well. • status of military - Kim, in December 1996, was quoted as saying that: “The party’s morale is so degraded that party cadres would benefit from getting an ideological education from political officers of the military.” - Also military’s role in the economic affairs is distinctive, especially in the fields of construction and agriculture, as well as in military industry.

25. Inter-Korean relations: from confrontation to engagement • Confrontation, 1950s-1960s - anti-communism vs. military adventurism • Competition, 1970s-1980s - July 4th Joint Declaration - regime competition accompanied by several conflicts • Gradual engagement, 1990s-present - Basic Agreement in 1991 - 1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4 - Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy for engagement with the North - 2nd nuclear crisis since 2002

26. Inter-Korean relations: confrontation in 1950s-1960s South Korea • The military regime, led by ex-general Park Chung-hee, took an intense anti-communism policy for obtaining legitimacy from the United States. - Law for Anti-Communism passed in 1961 - The law prohibits not only association with communists but also aids to them. This is a kind of special law of the existing National Security Law that defines general anti-national activities. North Korea • In the process of the consolidation of Kim’s power and the implementation of self-reliance policy, the status of military rose, and in turn, this resulted in an adventurism provoking to the South. - North Korean armed spy (special forces) infiltrations in 1968 targeting Blue House, South Korean presidential house.

27. Pueblo Incident (1968) • Inter-Korean confrontation heightened by the abduction of US spy ship, Pueblo, in January 1968 - The crew members were detained in North Korea for 11 months and returned in December 1968.

28. Inter-Korean relations: competition in 1970s-1980s • regime competition instead of confrontation, because of changes in international environment and domestic needs - July 4th Joint Declaration for inter-Korean reconciliation • Background (1): international environment changes - changes in security environment in East Asia, particularly because of rapprochement of US-China and Japan-China relations - Feb. 1972, president Nixon visited China, Shanghai Joint Communiqué - Sept. 1972, Prime Minister Tanaka visited China, Tanaka-Cho Enlai Joint Declaration • Background (2): domestic power consolidation and stability - in North Korea, preparation for father-to-son power transfer - “Kimilsungism” by Kim Jong-il in 1974 - in South Korea, Park’s ambition of prolonging his power - Yushin (literally meaning renovation) in October 1972

29. July 4th Joint Declaration in 1972 • The declaration was the culmination of inter-Korean reconciliatory gestures in this phase of regime competition. • Main points 1. principle of unification: independence, peace, grand national integration 2. end of denunciation and military provocation, and attempts for prevention of military conflict 3. multi-dimensional exchanges between two Koreas 4. facilitating of Red Cross meetings 5. establishment of hot line between Pyongyang and Seoul 6. operation of North-South Coordination Committee 7. swear for the full implementation of the agreements in front of all nation people

30. Inter-Korean regime competition accompanied by severe conflicts

31. Gradual engagement, 1990-present • Two Koreas joined UN at the same time in Sept. 1991. - The first formal international recognition of two states in Korean Peninsula. - This was one of the most meaningful events that happened in the post-Cold War era. • Basic Agreement between two Koreas in Dec. 1991 - This agreement was followed by Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in Feb. 1992. • 1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4 - Despite the two agreements between two Koreas, the disclosure of North Korea’s nuclear weapon development represented that Korean peninsula was still in the age of Cold War. - Geneva Agreed Framework, signed by US and North Korea in Oct. 1994, for freezing the nuclear facilities ended the crisis.

32. Inter-Korean relations, 1989-1992

33. 1994 and 2000

34. Gradual engagement, 1990-present, continue • Kim Dae-jung’s engagement policy 1998-2003 - “buying peace with economy,” or “investment in the peace” - collusive coalition between government and Hyundai cooperation for the 2000 summit • 2nd nuclear crisis in 2002-present - North Korea’s confession of developing of HEU project to US Assistant Secretary of the State Department James Kelly in Oct. 2002

35. Increasing trend of interaction between two Koreas Trend of inter-Korean trade volume (million US dollars) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 187 195 287 252 308 222 333 425 403 641 724 Trend of inter-Korean visits 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Total 24 12 536 146 1,015 3,317 5,661 7,986 8,742 13,877 16,303 S to N 18 12 536 146 1,015 3,317 5,599 7,280 8,551 12,825 15,280 N to S 6 0 0 0 0 0 62 706 191 1,052 1,023

36. Conclusion • The division has been a centrality of contradiction in the NEA region, as well as long competition between two Koreas. - The on-going trend of the expansion of inter-Korean relations is irreversible. - It is necessary to find a solution to the division by, at least, peaceful coexistence between two Koreas. - There is a vision for regional cooperation through Korea in transportation (Trans-Siberian and Trans-Korean linkage to Japan) and energy (oil and gas: Eastern Pipeline). • Elimination of North Korea’s WMD is a necessary condition for the furthering regional cooperation. - US-NK talks in the framework of multilateral approach (Six Party Talks) - NK takes the US as the key for the solution of all the diplomatic issues, including adduction issue. • Fostering the value of regional cooperation, instead of contention - cooperation among nongovernmental organizations, as well as governments (ex. Japan-South Korea-China history textbook cooperation)