Korean Problem and Northeast Asian Security

1. Korean Problem and Northeast Asian Security Sung Chull Kim

2. Preliminary questions • What does Korea, specifically speaking two Koreas, mean for the Northeast Asian security and peace? • What is the origin of North Korea’s provocative security postures? • What is the implication of the inter-Korean relations for the peace in Northeast Asia?

3. Two Koreas in Northeast Asia: Facts (2003)

4. Development of Korean Problem • “The divided Korea is the most innocent but worst victim of WWII, after the end of Japanese colonialism, and the Cold War.” • “The Korean peninsula is the last remaining Cold War zone in the world.” • Division of Korea and Korean War - one of the three countries divided by international agreement after WWII (Germany, Korea, and Vietnam) - of the three, one of the two countries having experienced war (Korea and Vietnam) • Divergent of development path and competition in the Cold War era - North: socialist and autarchic economy, father-son monolithic power - South: export-oriented market economy, dependence on US, democratization, • WMD development by North Korea in the Post-Cold War era - end of regime competition between two Koreas and increasing interdependence between two Koreas - two nuclear developments (1994-1994 and 2002-present)

5. Division of Korea: Why 38th parallel? • On August 10-11, 1945, Dean Rusk, a colonel at that time and later a key US figure in Asian diplomacy, drew a line across Korea at the session of the State-War-Navy Coordinating Committee in Washington, D.C.. • Why 38th parallel? - includes Seoul in the US zone - further north than could be realistically reached - US government worried the event of Soviet disagreement, because at that time, the Soviet could easily already advance into the northern part of Korea.

6. Division by military forces of US and the Soviet Union • “General Order No. 1” on September 2, 1945 by General Douglas MacArthur - Disarmament of Japanese army by American force in the South and Soviet force in the North, along the line divided by 38th parallel - US forces launched at Incheon starting on September 6, 1945 • Soviet forces entered into the northern part of Korea, even before the Japanese defeat on August 15. They began to overwhelm the area of Manchuria, right after the declaration of war on August 8, 1945. - Soviet forces already launched into the northern part of Korea before the end of World War II.

7. State Building in the North • Soviet influence for the early establishment of leadership - Selection of the leader: Kim Il Sung - Why Kim? (1) no experience of engagement in the factional division in communist movement in Korea in 1920s and 1930s; (2) Soviet’s familiarity with Kim who served in the Far Eastern Russia army - Soviet helped Kim by blocking of entry of armed forces from foreign territory, especially from China • In addition to Soviet influence, there were other factors for the rapid formation of state, centered around Kim Il Sung - existence of segments of communists in Korea during the Japanese colonial rule - ideological similarity among the factions after arrest of nationalists

8. State Building in the North, continue • The development of communist party or worker’s party was, first, to establish a northern branch of the Korean Communist Party of Seoul, and, then, to merge and absorb the center by the northern branch. • Oct. 10-3, 1945: Northern Branch of Korean Communist Party (center was in Seoul) • Feb. 8, 1946: North Korean Provisional People’s Committee (first government body) • Jun. 22, 1946: North Korean Communist Party • Aug. 28-30, 1946: North Korean Worker’s Party (merge between North Korean Communist Party and New Democratic Party) • Aug. 25, 1948: general election for representatives of Supreme People’s Committee (legislature body) • Sep. 9, 1948: establishment of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

9. State Building in the South • Strong US influence and support for Rhee Syngman, but relatively confrontational process in the state formation - Despite no allowance of political organizations by the Military Government led by US forces, there were severe confrontations among political factions of different ideological orientations. - The factions included communists, nationalists, Shanghai interim government leaders, and social democrats. - With the oppression made by the Military Government, the communist escaped to the North, and interim government faction and social democrats were driven out from the political scene. - In the end, Rhee Syngman prevailed in politics.

10. Political Factions in the South

11. State Building in the South, continue • Sep. 9, 1945: Entry of US forces in the southern part; establishment of Military Government • Oct. 16, 1945: arrival of Rhee Syngman in Seoul • Jun. 3, 1945: Rhee Syngman’s advocacy for a separate government in the South • Nov. 14, 1947: UN’s decision for general election in the South alone • May 10, 1948: general election for the constitutional national assembly • Aug. 15, 1948: establishment of Republic of Korea and the First Republic, with president Rhee Syngman

12. Origins of Korean War (1950-53) • Theories on the origin of the war - Kim Il Sung’s initiative - Stalin’s rollback strategy - internal war between two conflicting communities (North and South Koreas) • The Korean War was a result of inter-Korean confrontation boosted by two camps of the Cold War. - Rhee Syngman's “unification through marching to the North” vs. Kim Il Sung’s “complete domination based on democratic base in the North” - There was severe confrontation between two divergent regimes. Severe military conflicts occurred around the 38th parallel since June 1949. Even if it was not an all-out struggle, the war started a year before the day of June 25, 1950 that we recorded it as the starting date of the war. - The confrontation was fostered by international support by the Soviet union and China, on the one hand, and the United States, on the other hand. In this regard, the war is an international war also.

13. Consequences of the Korean War • Total death toll reached around 2,959,000 - 1,316,579 North Korean soldiers and civilians - 595,000 South Korean soldiers and civilians - 36,940 US soldiers - 500,000 Chinese soldiers • The human disaster of the Korean War outnumbered that of the Vietnam War (death tall 1,900,000). • Unlike the nominal goal of “unification,” presented by the two Koreas, the Korean War contributed to the consolidation of the division. - increase in armed forces: 600,000 in the South vs. 1,100,000 in the North - emergence of dictatorship: Rhee and Park in the South vs. Kim and his son, Kim Jong-il, in the North - divergent path of development: South’s reliance on the United States vs. North’s self-reliance

14. Autocratic Rule in the South • Rhee Syngman’s autocratic rule - In the midst of Korean War, Rhee adopted the direct presidential election in 1952. - Two years later, he illicitly passed a constitutional amendment permitting lifelong presidency. - In 1960, the election fraud connected with his campaign for a fourth presidential term brought about a massive demonstration. He resigned and fled to Hawaii, where he lived in exile.

15. Autocratic rule in the South, continue • Park Chung-hee’s authoritarian rule - Park took power through military coup in May 1961. - During the period of military government between 1961 and 1963, Park introduced the law banning political activities of the old politicians and established Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) and the Economic Planning Board. These two organizations became the pillars of power and legitimacy. - After promulgation of Yushin in October 1972, Park strengthened the authoritarian rule over the society through presidential measures, weakening of power of the legislative body, and press censorship. - Yushin collapsed with the assassination of president Park by his associate, KCIA director, Kim Jae-kyu on October 26, 1979.

16. Monolithic rule in the North • The Korean War (1950-1953) and its aftermath contributed to Kim Il Sung’s consolidation of power base. - Kim defeated South-origin communists right after the war broke out. - He expelled Soviet and Chinese factions from the party in the mid-1950s. • The tool for the monolithic rule was Juche ideology. Juche means self-reliance or independence. • The emergence of Kim Jong-il is attributable to his political skills as well as the preparation of power succession for twenty years. - Kim Jong-il successfully presented himself as the authoritative interpreter of the Juche ideology. He promulgated his father Kim Il Sung’ idea as Kimilsungism. Also he publicized Ten Principles for the Establishment of the Monolithic Idea in 1974. - Kim Jong-il became a party secretary in charge of the Organization Department as well as of Department of Propaganda and Agitation in 1973. He began to be deeply involved in the personnel affairs.

17. Power Structure after Kim Il Sung’s death • president - In the preface of the new constitution of 1998, Kim Il Sung is named as “eternal president” of North Korea. - The office of state president was abolished. • National Defense Committee (NDC) - The NDC became “the highest guiding organ of the military and the managing organ of the military affairs.” - The Chairman of the NDC, Kim Jong-il, is in firm control of all the armed forces and in charge of all political economic matters as well. • status of military - Kim, in December 1996, was quoted as saying that: “The party’s morale is so degraded that party cadres would benefit from getting an ideological education from political officers of the military.” - Also military’s role in the economic affairs is distinctive, especially in the fields of construction and agriculture, as well as in military industry.

18. Inter-Korean relations: from confrontation to engagement • Confrontation, 1950s-1960s - anti-communism vs. military adventurism • Competition, 1970s-1980s - July 4th Joint Declaration - regime competition accompanied by several conflicts • Gradual engagement, 1990s-present - Basic Agreement in 1991 - 1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4 - Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy for engagement with the North - 2nd nuclear crisis since 2002

19. Inter-Korean relations: confrontation in 1950s-1960s South Korea • The military regime, led by ex-general Park Chung-hee, took an intense anti-communism policy for obtaining legitimacy from the United States. - Law for Anti-Communism passed in 1961 - The law prohibits not only association with communists but also aids to them. This is a kind of special law of the existing National Security Law that defines general anti-national activities. North Korea • In the process of the consolidation of Kim’s power and the implementation of self-reliance policy, the status of military rose, and in turn, this resulted in an adventurism provoking to the South. - North Korean armed spy (special forces) infiltrations in 1968 targeting Blue House, South Korean presidential house.

20. Inter-Korean relations: competition in 1970s-1980s • regime competition instead of confrontation, because of changes in international environment and domestic needs - July 4th Joint Declaration for inter-Korean reconciliation • Background (1): international environment changes - changes in security environment in East Asia, particularly because of rapprochement of US-China and Japan-China relations - Feb. 1972, president Nixon visited China, Shanghai Joint Communiqué - Sept. 1972, Prime Minister Tanaka visited China, Tanaka-Cho Enlai Joint Declaration • Background (2): domestic power consolidation and stability - in North Korea, preparation for father-to-son power transfer - “Kimilsungism” by Kim Jong-il in 1974 - in South Korea, Park’s ambition of prolonging his power - Yushin (literally meaning renovation) in October 1972

21. July 4th Joint Declaration • The declaration was the culmination of inter-Korean reconciliatory gestures in this phase of regime competition. • Main points 1. principle of unification: independence, peace, grand national integration 2. end of denunciation and military provocation, and attempts for prevention of military conflict 3. multi-dimensional exchanges between two Koreas 4. facilitating of Red Cross meetings 5. establishment of hot line between Pyongyang and Seoul 6. operation of North-South Coordination Committee 7. swear for the full implementation of the agreements in front of all nation people

22. Gradual engagement, 1990-present • Two Koreas joined UN at the same time in Sept. 1991. - The first formal international recognition of two states in Korean Peninsula. - This was one of the most meaningful events that happened in the post-Cold War era. • Basic Agreement between two Koreas in Dec. 1991 - This agreement was followed by Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in Feb. 1992. • 1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4 - Despite the two agreements between two Koreas, the disclosure of North Korea’s nuclear weapon development represented that Korean peninsula was still in the age of Cold War. - Geneva Agreed Framework, signed by US and North Korea in Oct. 1994, for freezing the nuclear facilities ended the crisis.

23. Gradual engagement, 1990-present, continue • Kim Dae-jung’s engagement policy 1998-2003 - “buying peace with economy,” or “investment in the peace” - collusive coalition between government and Hyundai cooperation for the 2000 summit • 2nd nuclear crisis in 2002-present - North Korea’s confession of developing of HEU project to US Assistant Secretary of the State Department James Kelly in Oct. 2002

24. Increasing trend of interaction between two Koreas Trend of inter-Korean trade volume (million US dollars) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 187 195 287 252 308 222 333 425 403 641 724 Trend of inter-Korean visits 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Total 24 12 536 146 1,015 3,317 5,661 7,986 8,742 13,877 16,303 S to N 18 12 536 146 1,015 3,317 5,599 7,280 8,551 12,825 15,280 N to S 6 0 0 0 0 0 62 706 191 1,052 1,023

25. Chronology of North Korea’s nuclear development • 1962: North Korea sets up an atomic energy research center with Soviet help. • 1974: North Korea joins International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). • 1975: North Korea produces first plutonium -- a few grams. • 1985: Signs the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), promising not to produce a bomb and to open all nuclear sites to inspection. In return, Soviets promise North Korea several large power reactors. • 1989: Begins to process plutonium into nuclear-ready form. • 1991: Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula • 1992: IAEA inspects nuclear facility at Yongbyon and concludes there are inconsistencies in North Korea's nuclear declaration. • 1993: Bars inspectors from undeclared sites and says that it will drop out of nonproliferation treaty. Inspectors declare North Korea has violated its obligations to open undeclared sites. • 1994: CIA Director says he believes North Korea may have produced one or two nuclear bombs.

26. Chronology of North Korea’s nuclear development, continue • 1994: North Korea begins removing spent fuel from the 5 Mwt. reactor, in "serious violation" of North Korea's safeguard agreement with IAEA. • 1994: Former President Carter visits North Korea; Kim Il Sung offers to freeze North Korea's nuclear program in return for high-level talks between the U.S. and North Korea. • 1994: U.S. and North Korea conclude the Geneva Agreed Framework. • 1995: Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) is established for the construction of two light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea. • 1997: Hwang Jang-yop, a North Korean defector, says that North Korea has nuclear weapons. • 1998: North Korea launches a missile across the Japanese territory. • 2000: North Korea warns the possibility of breakdown of the Geneva Agreed Framework. • 2002: North Korea confesses its nuclear project based on highly enriched uranium (HEU) to James Kelly, special envoy from the United States. • 2002: KEDO decides the stop of sending of heavy oil to North Korea. • 2002: North Korea expels IAEA inspection teams. • 2003: North Korea declares the exit from NPT.

27. What made North Korea armed with WMD? • Mixture of Threat and Phobia - Threat is the best strategy for self-preservation. • Threat aspect - “Economic sanction by the UN equals to the declaration of war.” - “We want peaceful solution but do not beg peace. We are ready for war.” - “military-first politics”: Kim Jong-il’s phrase of military’s spirit of loyalty and enhanced status of military in political affairs • Phobia aspect - total destruction of Pyongyang and tremendous casualties during the Korean War - economic sanction by US, particularly no access to IMF and World Bank - emphasis on ideological education: anti-Americanism, hostility, antagonism, hatred

28. What made North Korea armed with WMD? continue There are also comparison effect and instrumental aspects • Instrumental aspect for both integrity and domestic reform - In the midst of the spread of domestic discontent since the famine in the mid-1990s, the party needs integration of society through symbolization of military strength and external threat. - July economic adjustment measure in 2002 brought about decrease of the power of party-state. This brought about desperate need for reform, which needs external resources. • Comparison effect aspect - unbalance of economic power between SK and NK - SK’s ideological penetration and economic influence - collapse of East European block, market transition in China

29. Conclusion: Korea for regional security and peace • Solution of division issue - facilitation for inter-Korean relations - reconciliation toward unification • End of North Korea WMD by eliminating its fear and phobia - peaceful solution based on multilateral approach - engagement with North Korea, instead of containment of the regime • Fostering the value of regional cooperation, instead of contention - cooperation among nongovernmental organizations, as well as governments - exploration of cooperation and interdependence in nonpolitical spheres