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Alessia Amighini, Marinella Leone and Roberta Rabellotti Università del Piemonte Orientale

Concentration, diversification or decline? How do Italian local economic systems perform in international markets?. Alessia Amighini, Marinella Leone and Roberta Rabellotti Università del Piemonte Orientale III Workshop PRIN - Novara. Motivation.

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Alessia Amighini, Marinella Leone and Roberta Rabellotti Università del Piemonte Orientale

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  1. Concentration, diversification or decline?How do Italian local economic systems perform in international markets? Alessia Amighini, Marinella Leone and Roberta Rabellotti Università del Piemonte Orientale III Workshop PRIN - Novara

  2. Motivation Contrasting evidence on the dynamics of comparative advantages at local level, especially for IDs provinces: • District effect: persistence of RCA positively correlated with the presence of IDs (De Benedictis, 2005; De Benedictis and Padoan, 1999; Epifani, 1999) • Growing evidence on IDs changing specialisation both across and within sectors (De Arcangelis and Ferri, 2005; Rabellotti, 2005)

  3. The theoretical background Trade integration among economies at different levels of technological development within imperfectly competitive markets (Grossman and Helpman, 1991): • Two sectors; • Differentiated final goods: F • Capital goods to produce final goods: K (De Arcangelis and Ferri, 2005)

  4. More advanced economies tend to specialise in K and despecialise in F(Ricardo effect or Heckscher-Ohlin effect) More advanced economies tend to despecialise in K because of higher competition in K Two opposite predictions

  5. Research questions • Are there changes in specialisation across and within sectors? • with a special focus on provinces with IDs. • Different scenarios: • concentration on core competencies • diversification out of core competencies • overall decline.

  6. Data • Export flows from 103 Italian provinces to the world in 1995 and 2005 in CPAteco 2002 13 manufacturing sectors at 5 digits (95 sub-sectors) (ISTAT); • Sector reaggregation according to end-use categories: intermediate, final and capital goods following RPI classification (ISTAT).

  7. Methodology • Symmetric Balassa index of RCA for each province on n sectors by end-use relative to the world (Comtrade); • Analyisis of the dynamics of overall distribution of RCA for each province by comparing the median of RCA and a Spearman rank correlation coefficient between 1995 and 2005; • Analysis of the dynamics of across and within sector specialisation; • Scenarios.

  8. Overall RCA distribution

  9. Overall RCA dbu: provinces with IDs by area

  10. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients

  11. Dynamics of RSCA: Textile

  12. Dynamics of RSCA: Clothing

  13. Dynamics of RSCA: Footwear

  14. Dynamics of RSCA: Machinery

  15. Dynamics of RSCA: Textile (IDs vs non-IDs)

  16. Dynamics of RSCA: Clothing (IDs vs non-IDs)

  17. Dynamics of RSCA: Footwear (IDs vs non-IDs)

  18. Dynamics of RSCA: Machinery (IDs vs non-IDs)

  19. Four different scenarios dMedian STRENGTHENING DIVERSIFICATION dRSCA WEAKENING CONCENTRATION

  20. IDs textile provinces

  21. IDs clothing provinces

  22. IDs footwear provinces

  23. IDs machinery provinces

  24. Scenarios: Machinery (provinces without IDs)

  25. Provinces with IDs: Clothing vs Textiles

  26. Provinces with IDs : Clothing vs Machinery

  27. Provinces with IDs: Textile vs Machinery

  28. Provinces with IDs: Footwear vs Machinery

  29. Main preliminary findings • Provinces with IDs overall are more persistent but several changes across and within sectors; • Tendences towards increasing CA in machinery and intermediate goods and decreasing CA in final goods in some IDs provinces specialised in clothing and footwear; • Prima facie evidence on linkages between delocalisation and verticalisation.

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