ALMA Update: October 2004-October 2005

ALMA Update: October 2004-October 2005 Bob Dickman ALMA Staff Associate Division of Astronomical Sciences

Events Reviewed • Antenna procurement • Rebaselining • Cost Review • Near Future

Rebaselining • Fall 2004: Rebaselining begins • March 2002 project baseline antedates formal project agreements and Japanese participation • September 2005: “Final” re-baseline cost estimate (JAO) • Assumptions • Common antenna type, ESO maintains procurement schedule, and 50-element array starting point • Increase in cost: • Antennas • Other areas • List of possible changes/descopes/scrubs • NSF working hard to buttress overruns: descopes, considering deferrable work, additional partnerships • November 2005 goal: New Project Baseline (Scope, Cost and Schedule) in place

Rebaselining: Cost Escalation Sources • Antennas • Delay for coordinated procurement • Commodity price increases: oil, steel, nickel • Site • Booming Chilean economy • Dollar/peso exchange rates • Management • Joint ALMA Office, including Project Management & Control System (PMCS) • Costs of partnership • Systems Engineering and Integration • Complexity of project • Other (e.g., missing scope, etc.)

Cost Review • Lehman-style cost review • Review requested by ALMA Board • Report will be passed on to NSF and ESO Council • 4 days: October 13-16, 2005 • Detailed assessment of • Cost • Schedule • Management • Initial assessment of integrating Japan Enhanced ALMA; early operations; operations • Panel: • Chair: Steve Beckwith • Vice-Chair: Thijs de Graauw • 20-member panel • 7 members each nominated by NA and ESO • 4 members nominated by Japan • 2 members nominated by Chile • Report timed to fit needs of ALMA Board, NSF

Antenna Procurement: I • Parallel procurement required by different legal regimes and practices of partners • Each partner provides half the total number of antennas • Highly coordinated, based on purchase of two prototypes • Goal is manufacture of a single design • Start: December 2003. Bumps in the road: • Prototype performance: • Late questions about (mainly) one prototype arose Summer-Fall 2004 • Extended testing program given to JAO; settled in early 2005 (both prototypes are excellent) • Coordinated procurement broke down in June 2005 with the interruption of the ESO procurement

Antenna Procurement: II • In June 2005, ALMA Board urged NSF/AUI/NRAO to proceed with a unilateral NA procurement • This approach was supported by ESO Council • NRAO signed antenna contract July 11, 2005 • Significantly higher costs than even 1 year earlier: • Commodity cost increases • Assume all NRE (recoverable) • Loss of quantity discount (recoverable)

Antenna Procurement: III • ESO making rapid progress on procurement • NSF action has accelerated process • On schedule to complete by end of October • ESO Council endorsed a 50-element array • Both prototype designs still in the running in Europe

Immediate Future: Milestones • ALMA Cost review: October 13-16 • ALMA Board acts on ESO antenna choice: November 1 • NSF-USG decision process to select and authorize new baseline: • October 2005 - March 2006 • New Baseline put in place

Challenges • Operations Costs • U.S. Cost increase  Non-Defense discretionary budgetary climate

ALMA Update: October 2004-October 2005