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Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives

Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives. Eric Kaufmann e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk Twitter: @ epkaufm. Data. Understanding Society (UKHLS) – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. 1,188 UKIP supporters or voters

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Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives

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  1. Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives Eric Kaufmann e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk Twitter: @epkaufm

  2. Data • Understanding Society (UKHLS) – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. • 1,188 UKIP supporters or voters • Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward • Longitudinal • LA and ward census data appended • Local Election Data, 2010-12 • UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 • Ward and LA census data appended

  3. …. • British Election Study Internet Panel 2015, Wave 1– Feb-March 2014; Wave 2 May-June 2014 (Fieldhouse et. al) • 35,000 sample size • LA is lowest geographic identifier • Panel study, with second wave to come • LA level electoral data appended

  4. Method: Logistic, clustered on LA; also multilevel

  5. Source: Local Election Data 2010-12 (Plymouth Elections Centre)

  6. DV: Labour-Tory vote ratio UKIP-Tory vote ratio UKIP-Labour vote ratio

  7. UKIP harms Tories….but also hurts the Left? • UKIP damaging Tories, but: • Right-wing parties gain in combined share over time as UKIP share rises • Canadian example ??

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