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STATUS REPORT

19 th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting NOAA Silver Spring, MD May 3-5, 2006. STATUS REPORT. Paul Poli (CNRM/GMAP) replacing Bruno Lacroix (DPrévi/COMPAS) With contributions from CNRM/GMAP and CNRM/COMPAS. Outline. Introduction Operational suite(s)

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STATUS REPORT

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  1. 19th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting NOAA Silver Spring, MD May 3-5,2006 STATUS REPORT Paul Poli (CNRM/GMAP) replacing Bruno Lacroix (DPrévi/COMPAS) With contributions from CNRM/GMAP and CNRM/COMPAS

  2. Outline • Introduction • Operational suite(s) • Update on current configurations • New: 3DVAR assimilation in LAM, chemical transport model • Test suite • NOAA-18 AMSU-A+MHS • Aqua/Terra MODIS winds • GOES/MTSAT cloud-track winds BUFR • Issues under development • SSM/I • GPS ZTD • Future Plans

  3. Introduction : Ballpark Figures • Total number of observation counts assimilated every 6 hours in Meteo France global model: 260,000~325,000 (Out of total rcvd) • SYNOP&BUOY (95%) • TEMP (82%) • AIREP (55%) • Wind Profilers (21%) • Geostat. Winds (7%) • ATOVS (4%) • Quikscat (28%) “Conventional” Satellite40% to 60% of total obs used 00,12 UTC 06,18 UTC

  4. Assimilation/Forecast Suites • Computing platform • Since mid-2003: Fujitsu VPP 5000, 124 PE • 2 machines: operations (60 PEs) and research/backup (64 PEs) • Replacement expected 2006 Q4 • Operational suites: • Global stretched • Global stretched, very short cutoff (00 UTC only) • Global uniform • Limited-Area • Ensemble Forecast • Data monitoring http://www.meteo.fr/special/minisites/monitoring/menu.html User/password available upon request herve.benichou@meteo.fr

  5. Each Assimilation/Forecast Suite • Two cycles running in parallel • ‘Production cycle’: • Short cutoff • Long forecasts • ‘Assimilation cycle’: • Longer cutoff • Forecast only +6 hours (first-guess for production cycle) • Keeps the “memory” of the assimilation system

  6. Stretched Global Model Horizontal Resolution 23km 133km 133km

  7. Supercomputer Platform Machine Load due to Operations only Global stretched model: 4DVAR analysis in 30 minutes, 24H forecast in 20 minutes

  8. Modifications in Operational Suites since Last Data Exchange Meeting (April 2005) • June 2005: Start of a chemical transport suite to issue air quality forecasts • July 2005: Start of a 3DVAR assimilation for Limited-Area Model (LAM) over Europe • January 2006: RS bias correction in global model

  9. Chemical Transport Model Operational since 27/06/2005 • 3 domains: • Global/Europe/France • Horz. resolutions: 4°x4°, 0.5°x0.5°, 0.1°x0.1° • Observations • Observations currently only used for validation • Plans to move to assimilation • Forecasts of air quality up to 96H

  10. 3DVAR Limited Area Model Operational since 25/07/2005 • Assimilates same observations as operational global model • With the addition of • Meteosat-8 clear-sky IR radiances from instrument SEVIRI • T2m and q2m • Without: • Quikscat • Only over Europe • Using 3DVAR T. Montmerle

  11. 72H Forecast RMS Error of Global Models over Europe as Compared to RS Uniform Stretched HIRS, high frequency SATOB Aqua AMSU-A AMSU-B, Quikscat, EARS NOAA-16 NOAA-17 NCEP SST, sea-ice mask from SSM/I

  12. Ocean Wave Models • 4 models: • Global stretched & uniform, Europe, France • Horz. resolutions: 1°, 1°, 0.25°, 0.1° • Global stretched & uniform models assimilate Jason-1 and Envisat altimeter wave height data • Forecasts up to 102H, 72H, 54H, 54H J.M. Lefevre

  13. Observations Usage Summary N15,16,17,Aqua N18 GOES,MeteoSat, MTSAT Aqua,Terra

  14. Passive Sounders Usage Summary

  15. Current Test Suite Changes as compared to operational suite: • 46 model levels instead of 41 • Model top 0.1hPa instead of 1hPa • New radiation scheme • New physics scheme; now includes following prognostic variables • Cloud liquid water: in suspension, and falling • Cloud ice water: in suspension, and falling • Addition of NOAA-18 AMSU-A and MHS • Cloud-track winds from GOES and MTSAT now in BUFR • Addition of GPS ZTD monitoring over Europe

  16. Current Coverage in Operations of NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Production cycle

  17. Current Coverage in Operations of NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Assimilation cycle

  18. Test suite Coverage for NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Assimilation cycle Addition of NOAA-18

  19. Current Coverage in Operational suite of Cloud-track Winds

  20. Test Suite Coverage for Cloud-track Winds Addition of Aqua/Terra MODIS winds GOES&MTSAT-1R winds now BUFR

  21. SSM/I Tests with only F13, F15 • Over oceans only • 250 km thinning • SSM/I-specific quality control: • Cloudy areas (CLWP > 0.1 kg.m-2) • Rainy areas (BT37V - BT37H < 40 K) E. Gérard

  22. SSM/I Tests: Impact on AnalysisTotal Column Water Vapor With SSM/I First guess Analysis Without SSM/I  SSM/I assimilation adds water in the tropics – but later increments stable E. Gérard

  23. SSM/I Tests: Impact on AnalysisTotal Column Water Vapor Analysis with SSM/I Increments in SSM/I experiment Increments in control experiment Difference (analysis with SSM/I) minus (control analysis) E. Gérard

  24. SSM/I Tests: Impact on Analysis Low Cloud Cover Difference More clouds with SSM/I Less clouds with SSM/I E. Gérard

  25. SSM/I Tests: Impact on Forecast Geopotential Scores w.r.t. RS RMS Std. Dev. Bias Blue = Improvement Red = Degradation E. Gérard

  26. GPS ZTD Tests GPSTransmitter radio link ground-based GPS receiver Atmospheric refractive index More than 500 stations over Europe, 11 processing centers more than 900 distinct data sources 1 mm ZTD approx. 0.5 hPa surface pressure 1 mm ZTD approx. 0.15 mm integrated water content

  27. GPS ZTD Tests Station selection process

  28. GPS ZTD Tests: Fit of ZTD Data by Processing Center w.r.t. Global Model Processing center with stations located in mountaineous area

  29. GPS ZTD Tests: 4DVAR Assimilation Predicted model trajectory (forecast) Observations Analysis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Timeslots time -3H00 -2H30 +0H30 +1H30 +2H30 +3H00 -1H30 -0H30

  30. GPS ZTD Tests • Fixed station selection • Fixed bias correction Blue = Improvement Red = Degradation • Automatic station selection • Sliding average bias correction Blue = Improvement Red = Degradation

  31. GPS ZTD Tests: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over France (36H-12H) Frequency Bias Index WITHOUT GPS WITH GPS Equitable Threat Score WITH GPS WITHOUT GPS Probability of Detection False Alarm Rate

  32. Radiosonde Minus Analysis Temperature Bias [contour = 1K] Switch to raw radiances ~1K at 150hPa

  33. Plans for the Coming Year • 4DVAR assimilation in chemical transport model in test suite • GPS ZTD assimilation in operations (global model) • SSM/I assimilation in operations • AIRS assimilation in operations • GPS RO in test suite • Limited-area model over La Réunion • Transition of all suites to new platform

  34. 19th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting NOAA Silver Spring, MD May 3-5,2006 ! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

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