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The Living City

The Living City. Mike Bennett & Vinay Gupta. city as rain forest. biodiversity complexity synergy. the great fires. Chicago London Edo / Tokyo. how we beat fire. changed behavior building better public fire brigades building codes. fire took systems level changes.

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The Living City

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  1. The Living City • Mike Bennett & Vinay Gupta

  2. city as rain forest • biodiversity • complexity • synergy

  3. the great fires • Chicago • London • Edo / Tokyo

  4. how we beat fire • changed behavior • building better • public fire brigades • building codes

  5. fire took systems level changes • individual, group, organization, state • all buildings / code • brigades / business

  6. risks: new, point and systemic • climate: new and systemic • earthquakes: point • pandemic: systemic

  7. defining risks • six ways to die • hot, cold, hunger, thirst, illness, injury • economic risk • population leaves

  8. scenario onepandemic • H1N1 2009 / 1918 • not if but when • quarantine / supply chains

  9. the unexpected • how do you move supplies? • what about food? • what about insulin? http://diabetes.niddk.nih.gov/dm/pubs/America/pdf/chapter3.pdf

  10. six ways to die revisited • flu hits people and supply chains • interdependencies are the hardest part

  11. mitigating risks • stockpile / backup • plan to do without • training • change systems

  12. who handles risks? • FEMA, CDC, FDA, EPA do their risks • local responders • including citizens!

  13. rational response is cross-level • individual, group, organization, state • good individual choices help a lot

  14. scenario twocold katrina • fragile grid “brittle power” • terrorist engineers • prolonged winter grid failure http://www.natcapsolutions.org/publications_files/brittlepower.htm http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/users/gambetta/Engineers%20of%20Jihad.pdf

  15. beyond resilience • CK requires change • change our models • unmake the risk • not just hardening

  16. how the mind understands risk • probability/impact • risk estimation • complex scenarios • UNDER REACTION

  17. change the system one brick at a time • everything changes • like beating fire • buildings and cars • we make, they buy

  18. imagine if we had not fixed fire • 6.5 bn, half urban • the environment is like fire once was • policy backs tech

  19. it is an engineer’s future • we made this mess • buildings and cars • and now we fix it

  20. recommendations • investigate systems transformation • resilience now! plans • pilot project: Arup?

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