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Mod 7 VALUATION USING RESIDUAL ENTERPRISE INCOME. SPECIALTY RETAIL - AMAZON Sophie Yu Section 2. Beta. OTHER beta ESTIMATES. 1.86 0.71 0.91 0.79 0.9 0.71 0.9 0.63 0.9 0.91 0.52 1. http://www.nasdaq.com http://investing.money.msn.com http://www.reuters.com
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Mod 7VALUATIONUSINGRESIDUALENTERPRISEINCOME SPECIALTY RETAIL - AMAZON Sophie Yu Section 2
OTHER beta ESTIMATES • 1.86 • 0.71 • 0.91 • 0.79 • 0.9 • 0.71 • 0.9 • 0.63 • 0.9 • 0.91 • 0.52 • 1 • http://www.nasdaq.com • http://investing.money.msn.com • http://www.reuters.com • http://finance.yahoo.com • http://research.scottrade.com • http://www.google.com • http://research.tdameritrade.com • http://www.firstrade.com • http://www.etrade.wallst.com • http://finance.comcast.net • http://www.zacks.com • http://www3.valueline.com
Beta regression Conclusion: β=0.903
Cost of equity capital using capm • Estimated β=0.903 • Treasury Long-term rate=3.42% • Market return ratePremium=11.75% • For Amazon: • Cost of Equity = 3.42%+0.903*(11.75%-3.42%)=10.94%
Cost of debt capital • Interest Expense= $141 million • Average amount of interest-bearing debt=(3191+3084)/2=$3137.5million • Cost of Debt=(141/3137.5)*(1-0.37)=2.8% • On the Financial Statements: • “…hadaweightedaverageinterestrateof5.5%and6.4%asofDecember31,2013and2012…” • Astheweightedaverageinterestrateisdeclining,Iassumeinthefutureinterestwillalsodecreasegradually. • Conclusion:Costofdebt=4.5%
Cost of enterprise capital • Market value of equity $164,252.66 million • Net financial obligations $(3,778.14) million • Market value of net operating assets $160,474.52 million • CostofEnterpriseCapital= • (164,252.66/160,474.52)*10.94%+(-3,778.14/160,474.52)*4.5% • =11.09%
ASSUMPTIONS • Currently,Amazonhasa20%growthrate • However,itisnotgoingtogrowat20%forever • Accordingtoanalyst’sreport,Amazonisfacingproblemssuchasheavyinvestmentsinwarehouses,R&Dindeliverydrone,andincreasingcostintransportation • Nevertheless,mostoftheanalystsarestilloptimisticaboutAmazon’sfuture • Thus,Iassumethatinthenext20years,thesalesgrowthwillgraduallydropto10%andstayat10%foralongtime
Valuing amazon-DCF Market Value = $357.35*454 = $162, 236.9
Valuing amazon–Residualenterpriseincome Same Enterprise Value!