Progress Report on Projection System

1. Progress Report on Projection System Keith Moser, Projections Team Leader

2. Northern Forest Futures • Operates at a scale intermediate between states and the nation • Consistent methodology applied to the 20 States within the North, individually and collectively • Projection component estimates • Forest area, volume, composition and structure under alternative scenarios • 2010 to 2060 Introduction

3. Imputation method • Use FIA data generated in 2003 – 2008 for a particular state. • For Harvested plots in next 5-year interval • replace with a duplicate copy of a recently harvested FIA plot drawn from a pool of plots with matching ecological conditions. • Harvest probability estimates based on empirical models of historical harvest choices for each forest type group • For Unharvested plots in next 5-year interval • replace each of those with a copy of a plot that is 5 years older but otherwise of the same forest type and found on similar site conditions. • Use Land Use Change Model to estimate increases or decreases in forest area for the projection period • Model the change in forest area by proportionally increasing or decreasing the area that each FIA plot represents on the forest landscape (i.e., adjust the plot area expansion factor). • Forest changes resulting from climate change are modeled by modifying the general methodology to replace plots representing forest growing under one historical climate regime with corresponding plots representing forest growing under a different historical climate regime that reflects the mapped changes in climate for future decades from a specific Coupled Global Climate Model.

4. IPCC storylines Introduction

5. Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators • Conservation of biological diversity • Maintenance of productive capacity of forest ecosystems • Maintenance of forest ecosystem health and vitality • Conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources • Maintenance of forest contributions to global carbon cycles • Maintenance and enhancement of long-term multiple socioeconomic benefits to meet the needs of societies • Legal, institutional and economic framework for forest conservation and sustainable management • Urban and community forests Sustainable Forest Criteria and Indicators

6. The North’s forests are changing Current (using the 2009 EVALIDs). Map by Ty Wilson, NRS-FIA Northern forest land area changes

7. The North’s forests are changing A1B 2060 forest. Map by Ty Wilson, NRS-FIA Northern forest land area changes

8. The North’s forests are changing Change in forests 2010 – 2060. Map by Ty Wilson, NRS-FIA Northern forest land area changes

9. Decreasing area over time Criterion 2: Productive capacity

10. Decreasing area over time Criterion 2: Productive capacity

11. Some changes between forest type groups Criterion 2: Productive capacity

12. Volume increase then stable Criterion 2: Productive capacity

13. Volume by forest type group Criterion 2: Productive capacity

14. Removals • Product-based • Probability of harvest based on tree size and harvest patterns for that tree size 2003 – 2008. • Removals numbers include a calculated number for growing stock volumes on land cleared and converted to non-forest • Land clearing portion of removals a small proportion of overall removals

15. Hardwood removalsTimber harvest and land clearing A2 storyline – standard projection and enhanced biomass utilization Criterion 2: Productive capacity

16. Softwood removalsTimber harvest and land clearing A2 storyline – standard projection and enhanced biomass utilization Criterion 2: Productive capacity

17. Northern Forest Futures Projections • Decreasing area – not climate driven • Increasing volume per acre driving stable overall volume. • Removals are largely flat, except for scenarios with increased biomass use. • Not a lot of difference between IPCC storylines • 50 year time line; greater changes later? Summary

18. Northern Forest Futures Projections • Northern Forests Future Assessment • State reports • Right now: graph “catalogs” • Examined number of trees/diameter distributions, volumes, removals by stand size class • Future reports – web based? • How to balance detailed information with a product that is readable and portable • All analyses at state level Summary