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Advisory Board Comments

Advisory Board Comments. Scott Denning Roger Francey Neil Turner Dennis Baldocchi. Kudos!. Huge and comprehensive database on many aspects of European carbon cycle Progress toward synthesis ! Very strong showing by young scientists. Generational shift is occurring.

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Advisory Board Comments

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  1. Advisory Board Comments Scott Denning Roger Francey Neil Turner Dennis Baldocchi

  2. Kudos! • Huge and comprehensive database on many aspects of European carbon cycle • Progress toward synthesis! • Very strong showing by young scientists. Generational shift is occurring. • Natural experiment provided by climate anomalies in 2003, 2005. Great opportunistic analysis has yielded impressive results. • IAV attribution to processes, cross-component analysis (TD-BU, towers, RS, atmos)! • Strong community. Shared purpose. Highly coordinated.

  3. Cross-Component Synthesis • Facilitated by the improved databases • Thurs PM talk by Reichstein/Papale: • Site-by-site IAV used to evaluate multiple models (LPJ, ORCH, B-BGC, MODIS) • Model intercomparison of same models at continental scale • Evaluation of IAV of continental GPP, TER, and NEP to neural net: Process-based integrated analysis • Rödenbeck/Peylin: • Propagation of same model IAV through transport • Comparison to atmos obs (“bottom all-the-way up”) • Quantitative comparison to inversion flux anomalies

  4. Progress on Management Effects • Enhanced model analysis (Greengrass, ORCHIDEE-STICS) • Impressive analysis of agricultural management (Belelli talk) • Forest management and age (Lousteau talk) • Fossil fuel attribution (Gamnitzer, Karstens, Levin talk) • Designed mitigation (Freibauer talk)

  5. Concerns: IAV is great, but … • CE-IP is committed to analysis of time-mean budget? • Are transient responses to clivar due to same processes as long-term responses? • Euro-budget reflects FF and mgmt of crops, pastures, urban landscape, & forests, not climate • Is observing network optimally structured to quantify these mgmt effects? Or rather to “cover veg and climate space?” • Inversions only presented for anomalies, with mean budget subtracted!

  6. Tick-Tock! • Two years left … still big questions to answer! • Carbon budget over 5 years (not IAV) • Process attribution (not LAI, drought) • Kyoto detection/validation • Uncertainty • Does CE-IP have a contractual obligation to the EU to answer these questions? • Task forces targeted on these, but work is not finished (still “assessing”)

  7. Synthesis in < 2 Years • Process understanding, budget, and uncertainty cannot be separated! • Uncertainty must be quantitatively propagated from sites -> models -> parameterization -> spatial data sets -> bottom up flux maps (full covariance!) • Comparison to top-down to take advantage of covariance info from inversions

  8. Mandated Synthesis? • Whose job is synthesis? Integration component? Task forces? • When and how? • Reallocation of resources may be required • “Lock key players in a room, and don’t let them out until they’ve written synthesis report”

  9. The Future • FP7: life beyond CE-IP? • Importance of ongoing obs to distinguish long-term from transient responses • ICOS sounds good, but is all “operations.” (“crossing the valley of death”) • Need to maintain balance • Research will still be needed!

  10. Thanks for asking! And thanks for listening

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