International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme

1. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme IGBP Sybil Seitzinger, IGBP Executive Director IGFA Meeting, Mexico City, October 2008

2. IGBP The Vision of IGBP is to provide scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth. • Interactions among biological, chemical, and physical processes and human systems • Issues relevant to society • Interdisciplinary and integration • Earth System context

3. IGBP Core Projects

4. Joint Projects w/ Other GEC Programs

5. Contribution of IGBP Science to Assessments IPCC AR4 84 IGBP Scientists coauthors MEA 7 IGBP Scientists coauthors

6. Ongoing Contributions to Future Assessments

7. Lessons Learned from AR4 Post AR4 Workshop Sydney, Australia 4-6 Oct 2007 66 IPCC authors + http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=222 Plus: Doherty, et al., submitted. Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: Future scientific developments needed to understand, predict and respond to climate change. BAMS GCOS

8. Map areas most vulnerable to climate change Refine and improve predictions for the most vulnerable areas Climate Research & Observations – New Framework

9. Surface temperature Socio-economic variables Emissions Concentrations Climate Models: New Scenarios Approach Traditional Approach: starting from socioeconomic development Hibbard et al. 2007 Meehl & Hibbard 2007 WGCM

10. Climate Models: New Scenarios Approach Traditional Approach: starting from socioeconomic development Socio-economic variables Surface Temperature Emissions Concentrations Reverse approach: starting w/ stabilization scenario concentrations Socio-economic variables Concentrations Surface Temperature Emissions WGCM

11. Climate Models: New Scenarios Approach Traditional Approach: starting from socioeconomic development Socio-economic variables Surface Temperature Emissions Concentrations Reverse Approach: starting w/ stabilization scenario concentrations Socio-economic variables Concentrations Surface Temperature Emissions IPCC-XXVIII/Doc.8,19.III.2008 Adopted by IPCC

12. ICED Integrating Climate & Ecosystem Dynamics in the Southern Ocean

13. Fall 2001 Chlorophyll a Fall 2002 Chlorophyll a ICED Chlorophyll & Krill Distributions Differ Black dots indicate vertically-integrated Krill biomass (g m-2)

14. Biological Hot Spots (Density 2001-2) Crabeater Seal Fish Seabird Whale (Costa et al., 2007) Not all parts of the shelf are biologically similar

15. Alternative Food Web Pathways High Krill Low Krill Need better quantification of alternative pathways

16. Not All Global Change is Climate Change

17. Production of Foodand Energy have >2x input of fixed N to terrestrial ecosystems

18. Impacts of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition on the Ocean 2000 1860 Low level ocean fertilization ~1/3 of ocean’s external nitrogen ~10% of anthropogenic CO2 drawdown Increased N2O emissions Duce et al. 2008 Science

19. Cape Town, South Africa 380 partipants 65 countries

20. AfricaNESS www.igbp.net/documents/AFRICANESS-REPORT.pdf

21. 2009 IGBP Mid-term Synthesis • 2012IGBP Open Science Conference • looking for venue & support

22. Financial Information

23. IGBP Secretariat Budget National Contributions 1,214,910 Euro (estimated)