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Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain

Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain Michaela Kreyenfeld and Cordula Zabel. ”One of the most consistent findings …is a negative relationship between women’s education and fertility.".

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Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain

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  1. Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain Michaela Kreyenfeld and Cordula Zabel

  2. ”One of the most consistent findings …is a negative relationship between women’s education and fertility." ”The growth in the earning power of women …is the major cause of ….the large decline in fertility. " Gary S. Becker 1993 A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge Charles Hirschman 1994 Annual Review of Sociology Education and Fertility

  3. Education and Fertility • Empirical Research on Macro Level • Evidence that negative macro level correlation between female employment and fertility has weakened (Ahn and Mira 2002). • Empirical Evidence on Micro Level • Consistent evidence that highly educated women have higher second and third birth risks: • Germany: Huinink (1995) • Sweden: Berinde (1999) or Hoem (1996) • Norway: Kravdal (1992), (2001) • Austria: Hoem et al. (2001) • Hungary: Olah (2003) • France: Köppen (2004) • UK: Smallwood (2004) • Denmark: Harhoff et al. (2007)

  4. Structure • Theoretical Considerations • Is the high fertility of highly educated women a statistical artefact? • Britain and West Germany • 2.1 Two contrasting welfare states • 2.2 General fertility development • Empirical Results • 3.1 Data, variables, method • 3.2 Event history models on higher order birth risks

  5. Is the high fertility of highly educated women a statistical artefact?

  6. Theoretical Considerations • Empirical Evidence • There is consistent evidence that highly educated women have higher second and third birth risks: • Huinink (1995),Berinde (1999), Hoem (1996), Kravdal (1992, 2001), Hoem et al. (2001), Olah 2003, Smallwood (2004), Köppen (2004), Harhoff et al. (2007) • All these studies have in common that they relied on an event history framework.

  7. Theoretical Considerations • # 1: Time-Squeeze Hypothesis • Highly educated women have higher birth risks, because they space their children close together. • Reasons for the close spacing are: • - an age-related „time-squeeze“ • - „work-accelerated childbearing“ (Ni Brochain) •  The birth rates are higher for highly educated women. However, the final progression to the next child is the same as for other women.

  8. Theoretical Considerations • # 2: Work-Characteristics Hypothesis • Highly educated often work in jobs that offer better possibilities to combine work and family life. • They are often employed in the public sector, which is more conducive to the compatibility of work and family life than the private sector. •  The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of work-characteristics in the models.

  9. Theoretical Considerations • # 3: Partner Hypothesis • Assortative mating is common in many countries. • Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family. •  The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of partner characteristics.

  10. Theoretical Considerations • # 4: Selection Hypothesis • Women at risk of second birth have already given birth to a first child. • Highly educated women who choose to have one child are a selective group of people who are • - particularly family orientated • - particularly good at arranging day care •  Highly educated women are a select group of people with special (unobserved) characteristics. These (unobserved) characteristics explain their high second and third birth rates.

  11. Theoretical Considerations • Hypotheses • 1. Time-squeeze: Highly educated women need to accelerate the transition to the second/third child. • 2. Work Characteristics: Highly educated women more often have secure jobs in the public sector. • 3. Partner Effect: Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family. • 4. Selectivity: Highly educated women at risk of second or third birth are a select group of people. ….or a “true” income effect?

  12. Great Britain and West Germany Welfare States and Fertility Development

  13. Liberal-Market Regime Child care market Conservative- Familialistic Regime Incompatibility

  14. Fertility Development Total Period Fertility Rate Total Cohort Fertility Rate Great Britain Great Britain 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 West Germany West Germany Source: Council of Europe 2005, Statistisches Bundesamt 2007

  15. 100% 8% 10% 24% 20% 75% 50% 42% 46% 25% 14% 12% 14% 10% 0% 1940-49 1950-59 Fertility Development Family Size Distribution by Birth Cohort West Germany Great Britain 4+ children 3 children 2 children 1 child Childless Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations

  16. Fertility Development Transition to First Birth by Age of Woman (Life Table Estimates) West Germany Great Britain 100% 25 30 25 27 50% Cohort 1960-69 Cohort 1950-59 Cohort 1940-49 0% 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations

  17. Fertility Development Transition to Second and Third Birth (Cohorts 1950-1969) 2nd Birth 3rd Birth West Germany West Germany Great Britain Great Britain Age of first child Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations

  18. Empirical Results

  19. Data, Method and Variables • Data • German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2005) • British Household Panel Survey (1991-2004) • Method • Piecewise-constant event history model • Dependent Variable • Second pregnancy (duration in months since last birth) • Third pregnancy (duration in months since last birth)

  20. Data, Method and Variables • Independent Variables • Age of previous child Age 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 etc. • Age at first birth Age 16-20, 20-25 etc. • Calendar period 1984-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000 etc. • Marital Status Married, cohabiting, single, divorced/widowed • Ethnicity/Nationality Foreigner/German (SOEP), Foreign born/native (BHPS) • Sex of previous children Girl(s), boy(s), mixed • Employment status Full-time, Part-time employed, not employed

  21. Data, Method and Variables • Independent Variables • Education No degree (no vocational or university degree) • Vocational degree • University degree • Partner Education No degree (no vocational or university degree) • Vocational degree • University degree • Sector Public sector • Private sector • Income Gross labor market income, deflated and categorized

  22. Data, Method and Variables • Sample Size • BHPS SOEP • Second Births • Respondents 903 2,763 • Events (second births) 455 1,195 • Third Births • Respondents 1,131 3,609 • Events (third births) 205 488

  23. Results Age of Previous Child (Absolute Risks in 1,000) 2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks Great Britain Great Britain West Germany West Germany

  24. Results Age at First Birth (Relative Risks) 2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks Great Britain Great Britain West Germany West Germany Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  25. Results Sex Composition of Previous Children (Relative Risks) 2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks Great Britain West Germany West Germany Great Britain Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child

  26. Results Marital Status (Relative Risks) 2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks Great Britain Great Britain West Germany West Germany Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child

  27. Results Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.88 0.85 Vocational 1 1 University 1.52*** 1.48 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.98 1.29** Vocational 1 1 University 1.42*** 1.58*** Time Squeeze? Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  28. Results Second Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze? West Germany Great Britain University University Vocational Vocational No degree No degree Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children.

  29. Results Third Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze? West Germany Great Britain University Vocational No degree University Vocational No degree Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children.

  30. Work Conditions? Results Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.88 0.85 Vocational 1 1 University 1.52*** 1.48 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.98 1.29** Vocational 1 1 University 1.42*** 1.58*** Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  31. Results Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.87 0.76* Vocational 1 1 University 1.49*** 1.79** Employment Status Full-time 0.72** 0.42*** Part-time 0.91 0.55*** Not employed 1 1 Sector Public 1.29* 0.73 Private 1 1 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.95 1.26* Vocational 1 1 University 1.47*** 1.70*** Employment Status Full-time 0.68* 0.45* Part-time 1.15 0.70 Not employed 1 1 Sector Public 1.14 0.97 Private 1 1 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  32. Partner Effect? Results Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.88 0.85 Vocational 1 1 University 1.52*** 1.48 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.98 1.29** Vocational 1 1 University 1.42*** 1.58*** Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  33. Results Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.87 0.83 Vocational 1 1 University 1.42** 1.67** Male Education No degree 1.04 1.10 Vocational 1 1 University 1.16 0.68 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.80 1. 28* Vocational 1 1 University 1.30* 1.21 Male Education No degree 0.98 1.21 Vocational 1 1 University 1.36*** 1.98*** Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  34. Selectivity? Results Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.88 0.85 Vocational 1 1 University 1.52*** 1.48 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.98 1.29** Vocational 1 1 University 1.42*** 1.58*** Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  35. Results Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany 2nd birth 3rd birth Female Education No degree 0.97 1.26** Vocational 1 1 University 1.38** 1.53*** Place lived at age 15 Small town 1 1 Medium town 0.82** 0.84 Big city 0.88 0.69** Father religious? Protestant 1 1 Catholic 0.89 1.33 Not religious 0.62 0.97 Other 1.01 1.62

  36. Results Female Income and the Next Child 2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks Great Britain Great Britain West Germany Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

  37. Conclusion • West Germany • Strong effect of partner‘s education on higher order birth risks. • Great Britain • Elevated second and third birth risks for university educated women can partially be explained by “time squeeze” • Work conditions matter (public/private sector) • Very high female income matters for higher order birth risks.

  38. Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung www.demogr.mpg.de

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