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Seasonal Climate Forecast Verification March – May 2014 (Issued: June 16, 2014)

Seasonal Climate Forecast Verification March – May 2014 (Issued: June 16, 2014). Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist

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Seasonal Climate Forecast Verification March – May 2014 (Issued: June 16, 2014)

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  1. Seasonal Climate ForecastVerificationMarch – May 2014(Issued: June 16, 2014) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us ODA Production support from Diana Walker and Andy Zimmerman

  2. Format and Purpose: • A side-by-side comparison of the “Seasonal Climate Forecast” vs. what (Actually Occurred) is done for both the 1-month & 3-month forecasts. • To assess the utility of this forecast and form a basis for adjustments to the forecast method*. • Note: 1981-2010 long-term averages are used. * See “Forecasting Methods…” at: http://cms.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/pages/weather.aspx

  3. Verification Updates: • This forecast method verifies best during El Niño (warm) or La Niña (cold) events. ENSO-neutral winters are more varied and usually have more “extreme” weather events. • A return to the “cool phase” of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which occurred no later than 2007, appears to be significantly influencing Oregon’s weather. • Using analog years from other “cool phase”periods should help to limit forecast error. However, most of those years are prior to 1977, which adds another element of error (adjustments are not made for any large-scale changes in climate between then and now).

  4. March 2014(Forecast Issued February 20, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  5. March 2014(Forecast Issued February 20, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  6. March 2014(Forecast Issued February 20, 2014)/(Actual) • Below average temperatures. (Temperatures were above average. A colder than average 1962 analog year led the forecast astray. That year was replaced with 1957 in subsequent forecasts.) • Precipitation near average…ranging from slightly above average NW to slightly below average SW and east. (Precipitation ranged from well above average west to slightly above average east. Mountain snowpacks increased, relative to average; ranging from slightly below average extreme north to well below average south.)

  7. April 2014(Forecast Issued March 20, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  8. April 2014(Forecast Issued March 20, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  9. April 2014(Forecast Issued March 20, 2014)/(Actual) • Below average temperatures likely. (Temperatures were warmer than average statewide.) • Near to below normal precipitation. (Precipitation was generally near to slightly below normal.)

  10. May 2014(Forecast Issued April 17, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  11. May 2014(Forecast Issued April 17, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  12. May 2014(Forecast Issued April 17, 2014)/(Actual) • Temperatures close to average…ranging from slightly cool west to slightly warm east. (Above average temperatures statewide.) • Precipitation ranging from slightly above average NW to slightly below average south and east.(Precipitation was slightly above average in the northern Cascades and below average elsewhere.)

  13. March – May 2014(Forecast Issued February 20, 2014) Forecast Temperatures Actual Temperatures Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  14. March – May 2014(Forecast Issued February 20, 2014) Forecast Precipitation Actual Precipitation Data courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  15. March – May 2014(Forecast Issued February 20, 2014)/(Actual) • Temperatures cooler than average. (Temperatures were above average for all three months statewide…in contrast to what was predicted by the analog years.) • Precipitation likely near average…ranging from slightly above average NW to slightly below average in the SW and east. (Precipitation ranged from above average west and central to slightly below average SE…close to what was predicted by the analog years.)

  16. Updated Monthly(Around the 20th) Your Feedback is Welcome! Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us

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