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Severe and Extreme Events 1998-2013

Severe and Extreme Events 1998-2013. Random thoughts. A total of 43 events since 1998 meet one of the criteria of Kp >=8m, Ap >=100, Dst <=-150. Avg Dst = -214; Ap = 121 15 of these meet only one of the criteria 7 of these are Kp =8m. Seems to make sense to remove these

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Severe and Extreme Events 1998-2013

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  1. Severe and Extreme Events1998-2013

  2. Random thoughts • A total of 43 events since 1998 meet one of the criteria of Kp>=8m, Ap>=100, Dst<=-150. • AvgDst= -214; Ap = 121 • 15 of these meet only one of the criteria • 7 of these are Kp=8m. • Seems to make sense to remove these • AvgDst = -100; Ap=74 • 1 is Kp=8z, 2 are Kp=8p, 1 is Ap=108, 4 are Dst=[-157,-159,-166,-181] • 7 meet only two of the criteria • 3 meet Ap & Kp; 3 meet Kp & Dst; 1 meets Ap & Dst • 21 meet all three of the criteria • 3 of these have Kp=9z (extreme)

  3. Paper OutlineHow will DSCOVR perform during extremes of SWx? • Intro: How will DSCOVR perform and where it improves on what we had previously. • How we define severe/extreme • DSCOVR would have provided perfect data for 40/41 severe/extreme geomagnetic storms: Velocity: Only 2 events with velocity > 1238 km/s • We’ll know it’s >1238km/s (and ~24 hours out of 15 years) • I need to pin down the speed during the 41 events • For events with no ACE or WIND, check SOHO, but also, use difference between Shock Arrival and SI • Comment on average time between L1 and beginning of significant storm intensities • Proton contamination during severe events • Independent of geomagnetic storm size • Proton contamination alone can still cause issues • An additional 14 periods of ACE data contaminated by protons also had data gaps in SWEPAM. • in modeling, situational awareness… • Do we have separate statistics for severe and extreme? • Plot peak Dst, Kp, Ap against peak solar wind values, Bt, Bz, V • Plot time to severe and/or extreme level from shock at ACE • Plot time to severe and/or extreme level from turn of Bz to negative

  4. Points to rebut • ‘DSCOVR…will not be capable of measuring the solar wind velocities of severe and extreme storms.’ • Speed doesn’t correlate very well with geomagnetic storm intensity • ‘It seems unlikely that far-reaching decisions, such as those involving dramatic protective measures applied to the power grid, will be possible based on observations with such a short lead time.’ • May have already been rebutted (consider dropping) • ‘Therefore, there are no and there won’t be reliable (i.e., operational) short term warnings of severe geomagnetic storms available.’ (See previous) • In discussing the use of the magnetic field signature, as in the Halloween Storm period…’For example, quasi-parallel shock geometry would not generate any shock-signature in the magnetic field during shock passage.’

  5. The seven Kp=8- events

  6. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = 01:23; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 1998-11-07 Kp=8-; Ap=74; Dst=-149 Have good data

  7. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 1999-07-30 Kp=8-; Ap=62; Dst=-53 Have good data

  8. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2005-01-07 Kp=8-; Ap=69; Dst=-93 Have good data

  9. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2005-01-16 Kp=8-; Ap=91; Dst=-103 Have good data

  10. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2005-05-29 Kp=8-; Ap=93; Dst=-113

  11. L1 - =0:30; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = 2:00; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2010-04-04 Kp=8-; Ap=63; Dst=-81

  12. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2011-08-05 Kp=8-; Ap=65; Dst=-107

  13. The rest of the only 1 criteria events

  14. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2000-11-05 Kp=7; Ap=78; Dst=-159

  15. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2001-10-27 Kp=7-; Ap=44; Dst=-157

  16. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2002-05-22 Kp=8+; Ap=77; Dst=-109

  17. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2002-09-07 Kp=7+; Ap=81; Dst=-181

  18. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2005-05-07 Kp=8+; Ap=93; Dst=-110

  19. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2012-03-07 Kp=8; Ap=90; Dst=-143

  20. Meet only 2 event criteria

  21. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 1999-09-22 Kp=8; Ap=70; Dst=-173

  22. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 1999-10-21 Kp=8; Ap=93;Dst=-237

  23. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2000-05-23 Kp=8; Ap=100; Dst=-147

  24. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2002-09-30 Kp=7+; Ap=103; Dst=-176

  25. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2003-05-28 Kp=8+; Ap=129; Dst=-144

  26. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2005-05-14 Kp=8+; Ap=87; Dst=-247

  27. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2005-09-10 Kp=8-; Ap=101; Dst=-139

  28. Meet all 3 event criteria

  29. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 1998-05-02 Kp=9-; Ap=120; Dst=-205

  30. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 1998-08-26 Kp=8; Ap=144; Dst=-155

  31. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 1998-09-24 Kp=8+; Ap=126; Dst=-207

  32. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2000-09-17 Kp=8+; Ap=103; Dst=-201

  33. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2000-10-04 Kp=8-; Ap=126; Dst=-182

  34. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2001-04-11 Kp=8+; Ap=124; Dst=-271

  35. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2001-10-21 Kp=8-; Ap=105; Dst=-187

  36. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2001-11-23 Kp=8+; Ap=103; Dst=-221

  37. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2006-12-14 Kp=8+; Ap=120; Dst=-162

  38. Events meeting extreme criteria

  39. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2000-04-06 Kp=9-; Ap=137; Dst=-288

  40. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2000-07-14 Kp=9; Ap=192; Dst=-301

  41. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2001-03-30 Kp=9-; Ap=191; Dst=-387

  42. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2001-11-04 Kp=9-; Ap=141; Dst=-292

  43. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2004-07-24 Kp=9-; Ap=195; Dst=-170

  44. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2004-07-26 Kp=9-; Ap=195; Dst=-170

  45. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2004-11-07 Kp=9-; Ap=206; Dst=-374

  46. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2004-11-09 Kp=9-; Ap=206; Dst=-263

  47. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2005-08-23 Kp=9-; Ap=105; Dst=-184

  48. WIND is inside the magnetosphere

  49. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2000-08-11 Kp=8-; Ap=128; Dst=-235

  50. L1 - =?; L1 - Dst150 = ; L1 – Dstp= ; L1 – Ap100 = ; L1 – App = ; L1 – Kb=8 = ; L1 – Kb=9 = ; 2001-10-01 Kp=7-; Ap=82; Dst=-166

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