The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: Taking the Next Steps

1. The Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment:Taking the Next Steps Michael MacCracken Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs Climate Institute, Washington DC, and Member, ACIA Synthesis Team

3. “Global Warming” will be experienced in distinct ways in each region. • We must look at impacts regionally to gain a sense of their influences on both the region’s and the world’s environment and society. • The Arctic is one of the most vulnerable regions!

4. With the climate changing so rapidly, the people of the Arctic wanted and needed more information about the changes and how best to prepare and adapt

6. The Foundation volume with 18 technical chapters will be published in early summer 2005, and is currently available on the Web at http://www.acia.uaf.edu/ pages/scientific.html The Overview volume was published in November 2004, and is available from Cambridge University Press and on the Web at http://amap.no/workdocs/

7. ACIA’s Ten Key Findings • Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger changes are projected; • Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications; • Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing wide-ranging impacts; • Animal species' diversity, ranges, and distribution will change; • Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing exposure to storms; • Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources; • Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and other infrastructure; • Indigenous communities are facing major economic and cultural impacts; • Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, plants, and animals; and • Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and ecosystems.

8. The ACIA Report Is Just a Beginning • The Assessment Reports of the IPCC make clear that global climate is changing and that changes will continue for at least a century • The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) confirms that change is underway and provides an initial evaluation and projection of impacts • An on-going assessment process (or dialogue) will be essential to helping those in the Arctic to adapt--the next steps need to be taken

9. “Global Warming” is evident over both the land and the oceans

10. The Briffa et al. Scaled Record is Mainly from NH Land Records, so Similar to Arctic Land Records

11. Warming in the Arctic is twice as large as for the world

12. Trends in Mean Temperature Annual (1900-1945) (1946-1965) (1966-2003)

14. Winter Spring (1966-2003) Summer Fall

15. Over the Past 30 Years, the Arctic Region Has Experienced Major Changes in its Climate • Increases in surface and oceanic temperatures, • Large reductions in sea ice and glacier volume, • Increases in river runoff and sea level, • Overall increases in precipitation, • The thawing of permafrost, • Shifts in the ranges of plant and animal species, and • Major impacts on the residents of the circumpolar Arctic region.

17. --Global average from 1990 ACIA’s analysis focused mostly on the relatively conservative B2 emissions scenario <A2

18. B2 Emissions Scenario Arctic Global

19. For most analyses, results from the 5 ACIA Models were averaged

21. Average of Results from the 5 ACIA Models

26. Climatic and ecological changes in the Arctic will also affect the habitats of birds, fish, and marine mammals that breed and grow in the Arctic during summer

32. Sea ice retreat allows storm waves to grow in size and increase coastal damage

45. What ACIA Has Done is Only a Beginning • The report is based on understanding through (roughly) 2003; more is being and will be learned. • The report’s findings tend to be general, with significant uncertainties remaining and a number of questions not addressed. • The Arctic region and its communities are changing, generating needs for new information. • The Arctic’s environmental and economic connections to the rest of the world are changing, changing the intensity and types of stresses. Assessment must be an on-going process, with continuing synergy between progress in research and exchange of information with decision-makers and stakeholders, using periodic reports to forge region-wide synthesis.

46. For this to happen, structures and processes need to be created to make assessment into an on-going process • The assessment process needs to encompass: • Summarization of existing knowledge and understanding; • Analysis of the region’s vulnerability, including its exposure and sensitivity to change and its adaptive capacity; and • Development, application and evaluation of coping strategies that build resilience and reduce deleterious consequences. • The assessment process needs to involve: • The region’s residents, Indigenous and non-indigenous; • The region’s governmental and institutional leaders; • Those who interact with the region through commercial linkages, including extraction and use of the region’s resources; and • The scientific and expert community that studies, analyzes, and projects Arctic conditions.

47. Designing the science component of the on-going research and assessment program has already begun With financial support, structures are in place to promote the needed scientific advances ACIA’s seventeen technical chapters, each describing findings & needed research Scientific knowledge & understanding ACIA chapter 18 summarizes research needs Scientific program design, including ICARP-II International and regional research programs, including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.

48. A complementary structure thatincludes the region’s peoples is needed Individual, community, national, and international activities aimed at facilitating regional adaptation (and global mitigation) ACIA’s seventeen technical chapters, each describing findings & needed research ACIA’s seventeen technical chapters, each describing findings & needed research Indigenous perspectives and resident expertise ACIA Overview's ten key findings Stakeholder evaluation and needs Scientific knowledge & understanding ACIA chapter 18 summarizes research needs Scientific program design, including ICARP-II International and regional research programs, including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.

49. The Set of Future Activities Must Include Both Loops--Interacting Together Individual, community, national, and international activities aimed at facilitating regional adaptation (and global mitigation) ACIA’s seventeen technical chapters, each describing findings & needed research ACIA’s seventeen technical chapters, each describing findings & needed research Indigenous perspectives and resident expertise ACIA Overview's ten key findings Stakeholder evaluation and needs Scientific knowledge & understanding ACIA chapter 18 summarizes research needs Scientific program design, including ICARP-II International and regional research programs, including WCRP, IGBP, IPY, AMAP, CAFF, etc.

50. The Scientific Loop Already Includes Many Activities--Linking Them is the Challenge • Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) • Working Group on the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) and other Arctic Council working groups • Research projects of the International Arctic Sciences Committee (IASC) • International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP II) • International programs such as International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC) • World Climate Research Programme’s Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project and Climate Variations (CLIVAR) project • Time-focused efforts such as the International Polar Year (IPY) • Global Environment Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) • Programmatic interests of the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA) • Regional and national programs (e.g., EU, NOAA, and many more)