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Dr. Elena Mateescu, Daniel Alexandru National Meteorological Administration, ROMANIA

FP6: Central and Eastern European Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment – CECILIA, 2006-2009. WP6/Climate change impacts on agriculture and forestry sectors. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT IN ROMANIAN AGRICULTURAL CROP PRODUCTION AND SPECIFIC MEASURES FOR ADAPTATION.

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Dr. Elena Mateescu, Daniel Alexandru National Meteorological Administration, ROMANIA

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  1. FP6: Central and Eastern European Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment – CECILIA, 2006-2009. WP6/Climate change impacts on agriculture and forestry sectors CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT IN ROMANIAN AGRICULTURAL CROP PRODUCTION AND SPECIFIC MEASURES FOR ADAPTATION Energy efficiency and Renewable Energy December 10, 2009 Dr. Elena Mateescu, Daniel Alexandru National Meteorological Administration, ROMANIA

  2. Introduction  Climate is one of the most important factors determining the productivity of agricultural production systems.  Future climate projections show that the South-East Romania agricultural areas may be affected in a negative way by a number of climate changes that are predicted by regional climate models. Adapting to climate change through a better crop system management will benefit mainly from the knowledge given by our responses to severe climate events, when plans to adapt to and mitigate predictable climate change risks are implemented.  The aim of this paper is to analyze possible climate change effects on winter wheat and maize growth, development and yielding, using the results and conclusions provided by six agrometeorological stations from S-E Romania and applying the simulation models CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize in combination with the RegCM3 climatic predictions at a very fine resolution (10 km) over 2020-2050.

  3. Climate change effects on crop production • depend on: • genetic type of crop (C3 or C4) • severity of climate change scenarios • levels of CO2 concentration • local climate conditions (drought/humid conditions) • and • can be: • positive:because increased CO2 improves growth by enhancing photosynthesis and tends to close stomata and slow down the rate of water loss • negative:because drought stress caused by higher evapotranspiration and reduced summer rainfallwill result in decreasing yield and WUE

  4.  Reasons for choosing winter wheat and maize crop: • - winter wheat and maize crop are strategic crops cultivated in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania; • - winter wheat and maize crop are different plants from the genetic point of view, so their response to increased CO2 level is different; • - maize crop is sensitive to water availability, especially in the silking/grain-filling phases, while winter wheat crop is a less water consumptive crop, but is sensitive to water stress in the anthesis phase. •  Climate change scenarios used in this paper are based on the outputs from regional climate models - RegCM3/2020-2050/SRES A1B (by MihaelaCaian) and HadCM3/2020-2050/SRES A2 (by AristitaBusuioc).

  5. Meteorological stationswith agrometeorological activity covering the whole range of agro-pedoclimatic conditions across the project-related area TARGET AREA

  6. Projected changes in monthly means of min and max temperature and precipitation for decades 2020-2050 According to this scenario, climate predictions indicate lows higher by 2.4C- 6.9C, mostly in the warm season. Monthly mean highs are 2-5C lower than in current climate conditions. Changes in monthly precipitation range from -33.8 mm to +29.7 mm. Precipitation amounts increase on the whole about 6-29.7 mm in the cold season (October-April) and decrease during the warm season (May-September) by 4-33.8 mm in comparison with the current clime conditions.

  7. Winter wheat growing season duration RegCM3/2020-2050/A1Bscenario 1961-1990 / 270 – 284 days 2020-2050 / 254 – 268 days / - 11…-17 days 13

  8. Winter Wheat water use efficiency (WUE) RegCM3/2020-2050/A1Bscenario 1961-1990 / 0,76…1,06 kg/mc 2020-2050 / 1,09…2,03 kg/mc/+43.0…+91.7%

  9. Winter wheat grain yield RegCM3/2020-2050/A1Bscenario 1961-1990 / 3599…5016 kg/ha 2020-2050 / 4389…7969 kg/ha/+8,5…+58,9%

  10. Maize growing season duration RegCM3/ 2020-2050/SRES A1B scenario 1961-1990 / 138 – 148 days 2020-2050 / 115 – 122 days / - 20…-29 days

  11. Maize water use efficiency (WUE) RegCM3/ 2020-2050/SRES A1B scenario 1961-1990 / 0,94…1,68 kg/mc 2020-2050 / 0,93…1,73 kg/mc/-0,9…-12,0% /+2,0…+34,5%

  12. Maize grain yield RegCM3/ 2020-2050/SRES A1B scenario 1961-1990 / 4463…7005 kg/ha 2020-2050 / 3290…5722 kg/ha/-1,7…-33,4%

  13. Comparison between Winter wheat & Maize Water Use Efficiency WINTER WHEAT / Analyzing the simulated results highlighted that this crop uses more efficiently the available soil water, this parameter (a ratio between production and evapotranspiration) increasing significantly by 43,0 up to 91,7% as against the current clime conditions, due mainly to a higher CO2 assimilation rate. Generally, increased CO2 concentrations result in a higher photosynthetic rate, reducing also water losses in crops. MAIZE / Given the 2020-2050 regional climate predictions, water use efficiency increases at most stations by 2,0…34,5% as against the current climate case, excepting the Buzau and Fundulea stations, where efficiency decreases with about 1,0…12,5%.

  14. Recommendations and options to improve the genotype varieties and yields - a case study for FUNDULEA site RegCM3/2020-2050/SRES-A1B

  15. Projected changes in monthly means of min and max temperature and precipitation for decades 2020-2050 /FUNDULEA

  16. Winter wheat - altered genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D) for genotype selection P1 V / FUNDULEA 4-MED The most suitable genotype - winter wheat varieties with high vernalization requirement / P1V=6.0

  17. P1 D / FUNDULEA 4-MED The most suitable genotype - winter wheat varieties with moderate photoperiod requirement / P1D=3.5

  18. Altered genetic coefficients - P1 V / P1 D FUNDULEA 4-MED The most suitable combinations - winter wheat varieties with high vernalization and moderate photoperiod requirements / P1V =6.0/P1D=2.5

  19. Recommendations to improve effective use of water by crops Had CM3/2020-2050/SRES A2

  20. Projected changes in monthly means of min and max temperature and precipitation for decades 2020-2050 /a case study for Calarasi site HadCM3/2020s /2050s/ SRES A2

  21. Winter wheat and Maize - Using different soil classes /Calarasi Winter wheat WUE shows an increasing trend for all soil classes, but there are not differences between the four soil classes The highest increase of maize WUE, up to 8.2 -17.3% in 2050, can be expected for the medium Cambic Chernozems soils (sandy clay and clay loam)

  22. Winter wheat and Maize – change in sowing date/ Calarasi The predicted WUE of maize crop increases by 6.1-18.2% in both scenarios (2020s and 2050s), with an earlier sowing date (April 1) in comparison with current dates (April 24). In the case of winter wheat, water is used more efficiently with the later sowing date, October 25 and November 5, respectively.

  23. Winter wheat - application of irrigation/Calarasi Winter wheat crop uses the available soil water more efficiently in both scenarios, particularly in the case of 2050 scenario,Taking into account the CO2 effect on both rainfed and irrigated winter wheat, the WUE increases significantly by 10-11% in 2020 and by 32-33% in 2050, compared with the current conditions, due mainly to the increased CO2 assimilation rate

  24. Maize - application of irrigation/ Calarasi In the rainfed conditions, without taking into account the CO2 effect, WUE decreases significantly by 22% in 2020 up to 74% in 2050 By application irrigation, the water use efficiency increases for both scenarios by 1.5-2.5% (without CO2) up to 8-19% (with CO2), compared with the current climate

  25. CONCLUSIONS • Analyzing the results simulated on the grounds of 2020-2050 climate change estimations made by regional climatic models highlighted that the future climate evolutions may he have important effects upon crops and they are conditioned by an interaction between the following factors: current climate changes on a local scale, severity of climate scenario-forecasted parameters, how the increased CO2 concentrations influence photosynthesis, and the genetic nature of plant types. Winter wheat can benefit from the interaction between increased CO2 concentrations and higher air temperatures, while maize is vulnerable to climate change, mainly in the case of a scenario predicting hot and droughty conditions. • As against current climate conditions, the RegCM3 scenario estimates that air temperature increases will shorten the vegetation season for every analyzed station and both crop types. • If climate changes according to the analyzed scenario, the maize yields will decrease at every analyzed station due to higher temperatures that shorten the vegetation season, coupled with a water stress, mainly during the phenological phases of grain formation and filling. In winter wheat, the yields will increase in comparison with the current clime conditions as a consequence of increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere (affecting photosynthesis) and of using water supplies to counter-balance the negative effect of shorter vegetation periods. • The cumulated amounts of water lost to evapotranspiration during the vegetation season in both crop types will decrease in every analyzed case, to a higher degree in maize crops, following an interaction between the two opposite processes: a high temperature-related shortening of the vegetation period and the physiological effect of increased CO2 concentrations upon crops. • Beside maize, wheat is more efficient in using the available soil water reserves given the regional climate predictions over 2020-2050 as against the current conditions due to higher CO2 assimilation rates, though this interaction can be restricted by higher temperatures and smaller amounts of available soil water. • The results shown in this study are very important and they can contribute to laying the grounds of and developing management options to adapt to and mitigate climate change-related negative effects affecting crop systems. These options could include: using irrigation in maize crops, changing the seeding date, using certain wheat genotypes that require a high or moderate vernalization and shorter photoperiods as well as certain maize hybrids with a better resistance to drought, changing the agricultural practices and crop rotation, extending the areas cultivated with autumn crops etc.

  26. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS • Climate change effects on crop water use efficiency can be positive or negative depending on the crop type, severity of climate scenarios, CO2 concentration levels and local climate conditions; • The winter wheat WUE greatly increases under climate change conditions, particularly in the case of increased CO2 levels; • The maize WUE decreases • Winter wheat crop used the soil available water more efficientlythan maize; • High CO2 gives more grain yield for less water consumed; • The irrigation application that increases grain yield and minimizes evapotranspiration is likely to increase more significantly the efficiency of water utilization by the both crops.

  27. THANK YOU! elena.mateescu@meteoromania.ro daniel.alexandru@meteoromania.ro http://www.meteoromania.ro

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