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Climate Change and Health Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School. http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge. TMINS: WINTERS & NIGHTS. HEAT ISLAND EFFECT. RESPIRATORY & CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE. Socioeconomic/emotional factors.
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Climate Change and Health Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge
RESPIRATORY & CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE Socioeconomic/emotional factors Indoor pollutants ASTHMA 2-3fold since1980 FOSSIL FUEL-RELATED Tree & Weed Pollen Diesel PM Ground-level 03 (T-dependant) Floods & Fungi Droughts, Fires & Haze
Global Emergence, Resurgence & Redistribution of Infectious Diseases • 30 DISEASES “NEW” TO MEDICINE SINCE 1976 • HIV/AIDS Ebola • Legionnaires’ E. coli O157:H7 • Multiple Antibiotic-Resistant Agents • Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome • Lyme Disease Nipah Virus • Vibrio cholerae O139Arenaviruses • RESURGENT & REDISTRIBUTING • Malaria, Dengue Fever, West Nile Virus VECTORS Mosquitoes Ticks Rodents Bats Tsetse Flies Fleas Lice Snails Algae
SARS-Severe acute respiratory syndrome CORONAVIRUS • Mutation • Genetic recombination • Mouse hepatitis or chicken virus • (BT) TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM
WEST NILE VIRUS -CDC
WEST NILE VIRUS HUMAN CASES & DEATHS 4161 cases 277 deaths Feb ‘03 1460 62 66 21 1999 2000 2001 2002 (17Sep) -Science 2002:297:1988
WNV: A DISEASE OF WILDLIFE • 230 SPECIES • INFECTED IN 2002 • 134 Bird spp., Raptors • 14,045 Horses • Zoo Penguins & Macaques • Reptiles – Fla. Alligators AVIAN FLYWAYS
LYME DISEASE 1980s 1990s TICK DISTRIBUTION IN SWEDEN -Lindgren & Gustafson. Lancet 2001;358:16
CHANGES IN MONTANE REGIONS
Cryosphere Plants Mosquitoes
Range Expansion of Soybean Cyst Nematode in North America Crop Pests Generations/Year From: Rosenzweig et al., GC & HH 2001;2:90
HURRICANE MITCH 1998 HURRICANE MITCH
HURRICANE MITCH IMPACTS ON HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT DISEASE CLUSTER -- Malaria (>30,000 cases) -- Dengue fever (>1,000) -- Cholera (>30,000) -- Leptospirosis
Poor Communities & Developing Nations Oil-related health consequences Extraction: Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico Refining & benzene Utility plants & mercury Air pollution & inner city truck routes Extreme weather events Economic inequities Vulnerabilities – coping, adaptation, restoration, prevention, public health infrastructure But no nation is immune Mozambique
WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL HAZARDS • and TRAUMA • Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel • Floods & Mudslides • Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches • Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q • HEALTH & ECONOMIC IMPACTS
SST Anomalies October 14 2002 Freshening of the North Atlantic
Deep Ocean Warming Levitus et al. Science 2000; 287: 2225
FRESHENING OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC Hoerling and Kumar, Science 2003 ;299: 691
OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods Spills & Leaks Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport MERCURY Air Pollution Eutrophication NOxs Acid Rain Combustion Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar Ice Climate Change
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASESHumans Wildlife Trees Crops Coral Marine Life
Costs of Extreme Weather Events UNEP Projections $150 Billion/yr w/in the Decade w/ Current Trends
BENEFITS & OPPORTUNITIES • Energy Efficiency (EE) • Renewable Energy (RE) Technologies • “Green Buildings” & Smart Growth • Transport and Transit Systems • Ecological Reconstruction • Retrofitting Infrastructure JOB CREATION THE ENGINE OF GROWTH for the 21st CENTURY • FINANCIAL INCENTIVES • & MARKET SIGNALS