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The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios. Nankyoung Moon 1 , Sung-You Hong 2 , Soontae Kim 3 , Jung-Hun Woo 4 1 Korea Environment Institute, 2 Yonsei University, 3 Ajou University, 4 Konkuk University. Contents. 1. Background.
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The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios • Nankyoung Moon1, Sung-You Hong2, SoontaeKim3, Jung-Hun Woo4 • 1 Korea Environment Institute, 2Yonsei University, • 3Ajou University, 4KonkukUniversity
Contents 1 Background 2 Multi-scale Modeling System 3 Climate Change & Air Quality 4 Summary
1. Background • Ozone concentrations are sensitive to temperature, humidity, wind speed, and mixing height, etc. • Changes in climate over the next century are expected to result in changes in many or all of these meteorological parameters, which could have important impacts on air quality. • To project the effects of global climate change on regional air quality in Korea.
Global Scale (~200km)-ECHAM5 Regional Scale (Asian region: 50km)-RSM Local Scale (East Asia region: 27km)-WRF Urban Scale (Korean Peninsula: 9km)-WRF,CMAQ 2. Multi-scale Modeling System Downscaling Method Return
ECHAM5 (Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorology) (Roeckner et al. 2006, J. Climate) RMIP phase III (RCM intercomparison project over Asia, Beijing workshop, May 2008) Global Precipitation & Temperature RMIP domain (171*131(50km)) Global Temperature • GCM forcing : ECHAM5 • For control climate: 1978-2000 • For future climate: 2038-2070 • Participants : 11 RCM group including • YonseiUniv, RSM (Korea, China, Japan, • Russia, Austrailia, USA)
Future climate (2000~2100) Current climate Precipitation Anomaly during 1979-2006 over the East Asia region (105E-150E, 25N-45N) 2055 1995 2055 : Median year during the RMIP III period (2038~2070) 1995 summer : near normal summer
Experimental Setup 1994~1996 JJA: Current summer climate simulations 2054~2056 JJA: Future summer climate simulations ECHAM5 WRF (27km) WRF (9km) RSM (50km) BC by 1-way nesting WRF (27km) WRF (9km) RSM (50km) BC & IC BC & IC ECHAM5 Global Asia East Asia Korea Global Asia East Asia Korea
3. Climate Change & Air Quality Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA Accumulated Precipitation (mm) Present (1994-1996) Observation (CMAP) Future (2054-2056) Future - Present Precipitation will be increase except for the eastern part of Tibetan Plateau and the north pacific area in the future climate.
Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA 500 hPageopotential height (m) Future (2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Future - Present The north pacific cyclonic will strengthen in the future
Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1) Future(2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Future – Present The marine water vapor in the future diverse well compare to the present climate over the north Pacific area. The specific humidity increase in the future climate.
Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA 850 hPageopotential height (m) and temperature (℃) Future (2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Future – Present The mean temperature in Korea, Japan and the north pacific area will increase by approximately 2℃.
Kangwon Sudo Chungcheong Youngnam Honam Analysis Area
Wind & Specific Humidity • JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1) Future (2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Difference (Future-Present) • Future Climate • Flow changes sounthwest from west • Increasing of specific humidity
Surface Maximum Mean Temperature 1994 1995 1996 2054 2056 2055
Surface Maximum Mean Temperature 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Maximum temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.54 ℃)
Surface Minimum Mean Temperature 1996 1994 1995 2054 2056 2055
Surface Minimum Mean Temperature 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Minimum temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.44 ℃)
Surface Mean Temperature 1995 1994 1996 2056 2055 2054
Surface Mean Temperature 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.51 ℃)
Surface Temperature - JJA Diff. ( Future – Current) Daily Mean Min. Temp. Daily Mean Max. Temp. Daily Mean Temp. (Unit:℃)
Accumulated Precipitation 1994 1995 1996 2054 2056 2055
Accumulated Precipitation 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Accumulated precipitation difference (Future – Current : 76.7mm)
Maximum Mean PBL height 1994 1996 1995 2055 2054 2056
Maximum Mean PBL height 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Maximum PBL height difference (Future – Current : -11m)
Mean PBL height 1995 1996 1994 2054 2055 2056
Mean PBL height 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean PBL height difference (Future – Current :-24m)
Mean PBL height (m)
Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ Community Multi-pollutant Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System
SMOKE processing KEI-EIPS Input data • Format conversion • DB/ASCII IDA • SCC mapping • Split factors for • chemical speciation • Temporal profiles • Surrogates • Spatial allocation for • county-based emissions Spatial allocation ; domain-specific Temporal allocation ; hourly resolved emissions Chemical speciation ; CB4, SAPRC99, RADM2 Plume rise ; Point Sources Area AQF Annual Nonroad Annual Mobile MIMS Spatial Allocator Annual Emissions Shape files Point Annual, Monthly Emissions processing with SMOKE
Non-road Area NO (ex.) Point Point Mobile
Kangwon Sudo Chungcheong Youngnam Honam Model Domain MCIP & CMAQ 27 – 9km Regional Scale ℃
Simulation Case Emissions Case Run Climate Change X ○ Met_only ○ A1B ○ • Met_only : Considered only meteorology change due to climate change with the same • level of present emissions • A1B : Considered both meteorology change and emissions change in the future
Future Emissions NO2 SO2 CO Present Future (Unit : moles/s)
Surface Mean O3 Concentration(met_only) 1995 1994 1996 2054 2056 2055
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only) 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference (Future – Current)
Surface Mean O3 Concentration(A1B) 1994 1995 1996 2054 2056 2055
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B) 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference (Future – Current)
Process Analysis - IPR (Integrated Process Rate) : can be used to determine the relative contributions of individual physical and chemical process