Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models

1. Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

2. Presentation Agenda • Why Integrated Environment Assessment? • What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change • What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component Models? Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis • What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment provide? Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change • Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated Assessment in developing countries?

3. Why Integrated Environment Assessment?

4. Atmospheric Chemistry Geophysics Meteorology Economics Biology Policy sciences Hydraulics Climatology Ecology Geochemistry Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment Policymaking Process Models and Frameworks Integrated Assessment Knowledge disciplines

5. What to Integrate? • Diverse Scientific Disciplines • Diverse socio-economic scenarios • Macro and micro-economies • Local and regional boundaries • Short and long time horizons • Local and global environmental concerns • Rural and urban perspectives • Regional emissions and impact assessment • Probability and Decision under uncertainty • Technology

6. Why Integrated Assessment? • To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile pieces of existing knowledge • To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge) • To develop full range of policy outcomes • To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and policy formulation

7. Why Integrated Assessment Models? • Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency pointing to areas where more information is required • IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools • Communications tools between different sciences and between science and policy • Insights from investigations in the domains of the sub-components

8. What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

9. Climate Issues Understanding “Climate” versus “Climate Change”

10. Atmospheric Composition Climate & Sea Level Ecosystems Human Activities Integrated Climate Change Dimensions

11. Integrated Framework for Climate Change

12. What are Integrated Assessment Models? Example Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis

13. AIM/Trend AIM/Energy/Technology/Country AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact Korea A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model Temperature China Precipitation India Sunshine Thailand Japan Land use Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM Family AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Top-down A bottom-up technology & land use model for Asia-Pacific region A general-equilibrium-type world economic model Environmental burden Future economic trend Environ- mental Burden AIM/Material Environmental Industry Green Purchase Industry Future environmental trend Consumer A environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Environment Fund Recycle Wastes Environmental Burden Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Technology assessment 　　　　　　　 　　　　　　　　 Technology needs Research on new technologies AIM Model System

14. Innovational Work System Outputs Outputs Outputs AIM-Trend AIM-Top-down AIM-Energy Monitoring & Processing Data from IEM Common Database Policy making Statistics AIM-Ecosystem AIM-Material Outputs Outputs Strategic Database

15. Climate & Sea Level SCENGEN Atmospheric Composition MAGICC Ecosystems AGLU & MERGE Human Activities ERB-AGLU MiniCAM An Integrated Modelling Framework

16. ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL MAGICC MAGICC Atmospheric Chemistry Climate MAGICC MAGICC--Ocean Ocean Carbon · temperature Cycle · sea level HUMAN ACTIVITIES ECOSYSTEMS ERB ERB MAGICC Un-managed Energy Other Human Terrestrial Eco-system System Systems Carbon Cyc. & Animals ALU (none) ALU ALU Ag., L'stock Coastal Crops & Hydrology & Forestry System Forestry MiniCAMCOMPONENTS

17. What are Component Models?

18. GDP and CO2 Emissions: AIM/Trend Model

19. 2000 2030 SO2 EmissionAIM/Emission Model

20. 2030 Market Force Water Consumption: AIM/Ecosystem Model

21. 26 region – 36 sector Computable General Equilibrium Model (AIM/Top-down) Bottom-up technology & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) Bottom-up technology & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) Bottom-up technology & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) AIM/Top-down & AIM/Bottom-up Model World level Country level ・・・

22. Insights from Integrated Climate Change Assessment

23. IS92a IS92a Emissions and Concentrations

24. 50 Renewables 40 Biomass Nuclear 30 Hydro Gas Exa Joules 20 Oil 10 Coal 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Energy Consumption Energy and Carbon Emissions for India: AIMENDUSE Model Carbon Emissions 800 600 Carbon (MT) 400 200 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year

25. 7 800 6 600 5 Million Tonnes 4 Carbon (MT) 400 3 2 200 1 0 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year GHG versus Local Emissions in India Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions

26. Global Carbon Mitigation Scenarios (2000 - 2100)

27. 550 ppmv Technology, Energy & Climate: MINICAM

28. Base Case Energy System Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case MTC 550 ppmv Indian Energy System Transformation Under 550 ppmv Stabilization

29. Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation 2000 1600 1200 800 550 PPMV 400 Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv

30. Regional Energy Market Development

31. Emissions Reduction (2015) 10.5 9.0 7.5 6.0 Reduction (%) 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 Carbon SOX Year Grid Integration Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation Impact of Regional Energy Market Developments in South-Asia

32. Why and What kind of Capacity Building for Integrated Environment Assessment in Developing Countries?

33. Integrated Environment Assessment: Developing Country Problems • Assessment and modeling capabilities • Inadequate database • Structural changes in the economy • Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns • Weak regional and international linkages • Lack of sustained funding

34. Limitations of Present Approaches • Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment • Assumptions derived from developed world perspective • Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events • Weak behavioral interfaces • Distance between analysts and policy makers

35. Capacity Building Needs for Developing Countries • Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences • Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams • Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts • Sustained funding • Institutionalize integrated assessment activities