CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA’S ENERGY POLICY

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA’S ENERGY POLICY Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj Center For Study Of Science, Technology & Policy, Bangalore ASIAN CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY : TRENDS AND POLICY JULY 22, 2011

2. India’s primary energy consumption : a snapshot In 2010 alone, India’s primary energy consumption grew by 9.2% CSTEP July 2011 Source : BP statistical review of world energy, 2011; CSTEP

3. India's energy aspirations • Annual GDP growth projection : 8 – 9% • Elasticity of electricity : GDP ~ 0.95 • Net electricity generation required in 2020 : 1850 billion units • per capita electricity consumption in 2020 : ~ 1200 kWh • Still, well below world average of 2800 kWh • India has announced intent to reduce CO2 intensity: GDP by 20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020 • Multiple objectives for Indian energy policy • Access for all • Reliability • Low cost • Low carbon • Energy Security CSTEP July 2011

4. Electric Power • Current Capacity : 173,855 MW (utility) • 5th largest in the world • Low per capita electricity consumption • India 717 kWh • US 14,000 kWh • China 2500 kWh • World 2800 kWh • Peak shortage ~ 15% • 800,000 MW in 2030 – 40 • ~ 25,000 MW per year • Environmental concerns • India 3rd largest emitter of CO2 behind China and US • 38% of emissions from power sector • Energy security concerns • 67% power from coal-based thermal plants - need to depend on imports • Prototype breeder reactors to exploit thorium reserves CSTEP July 2011

5. Environmental concerns : ghg emissions in India (2007) CSTEP July 2011

6. Energy resource availability in India Source : BP statistical review report, NHPC,NTPC CSTEP July 2011

7. Energy security concerns Source : Telegraph, FT CSTEP July 2011

8. Projected fuel mix in 2020 • Required capacity in 2020 assuming 8% growth = 387,280 MW in BAU scenario CSTEP July 2011 Source : Interim report, Planning commission 2011

9. How to Grow and be Sustainable? • How do we grow to ~ 2,000 billion kWh by 2020 • How do we get 3,00 billion kWh of low-carbon power? • What fuel options & technologies? • Wind • Nuclear, • Solar • Hydro • Bio-fuels • Carbon Sequestration • Hydrogen & fuel cells • Hybrid cars • Investments, research, policies? CSTEP July 2011

10. Wind power • India - 5th in wind capacity • Power proportional to V 3 • Cost of generation reasonable: ~ Rs 3 per kWh • Economics sensitive to wind speeds • World total installed 194,000 MW • India: • Potential: 50,000 MW based on hub height of 50 m and 2% land usage • Recent studies offer reassessed potential at 80m 6-7% land usage • Onshore - 676, 000 MW • Offshore - 214,000 MW • Intermittent; grid stability is a concern CSTEP July 2011

11. solar power • JNNSM launched in 2010 targets 22,000 MW by 2022 • Phase 1 ( until March 2013) • Target of 1300 MW : 800 MW PV and 500 MW CSP • 25 years of guaranteed feed in tariff • Off-grid PV • Target of 2000 MW by 2022 • Rural applications where grid is unviable or unreachable • Challenges • High nominal cost of generation : ~ Rs 15 per kWh • Water scarcity issues for CSP • Requirement of skilled personnel CSTEP July 2011

12. Nuclear Power • Installed Capacity 4780 MW • Generation ~ 23 Billion kWh (2.5 % of total) • Domestic Uranium reserves ~ 61,000 Tons • Poor quality ore (0.01% - 0.05% Uranium) • Large Thorium deposits • But, Thorium is fertile and has to be converted to fissile U233 in a reactor • Phase Nuclear Program • Phase I Build Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors using domestic Uranium • Phase II Reprocess spent fuel from Phase I to get Plutonium for Breeder Reactors • Phase III Use U233 (obtained from Thorium) and use it with Plutonium • Domestic Uranium reserves can sustain 10,000 MW PHWR for 40 years • Low capacity factors due to Uranium mining constraints CSTEP July 2011

13. Indian nuclear power program Nuclear capacity presently under construction : 5300 MW CSTEP June 2011

14. Electricity generation costs : comparison CSTEP July 2011 Source : LBNL, CERC , CSTEP & NPCIL

15. Demand-side measures : smart grids • Indian Institute of Science & CSTEP • “Smart grid” test bed in IISc campus • Consortium of technology provider companies • Ministry of Power (under R-APDRP)

16. Biofuel Potential • India’s total land area 328 million hectares (mha) • Cultivated 142 mha • Cultivable wasteland 30 mha • Rice 40 mha • Wheat 26 mha • Hazardous to divert agricultural area for bio-fuels. • If entire wasteland used for growing bio-fuels, • Produce about 30 million tons of bio-oil • 10% of oil demand by 2031. • Advisable to cultivate on such a large area? CSTEP July 2011

17. Ethanol Opportunities • Increase yield of sugarcane using drip irrigation & fertigation • Present average yield ~ 80 tons per ha • Using drip irrigation & fertigation 150 tons per ha • Sweet sorghum: • Less water intensive than sugarcane • Two crops a year • Cellulosic ethanol from agro-forest residues such as bagasse, rice husk, wood chips, crop residues. • Technology needs to be developed CSTEP July 2011

18. What can 1 Hectare Do? Bio-Fuels indirectly use solar energy Why not do it directly? Solar CSTEP July 2011

19. Land required(ha/1000 MW) Source : NPCIL & CSTEP CSTEP July 2011

20. potential R&D domains • New and affordable materials for photovoltaic • Clean coal technologies; carbon capture and sequestration • Low-speed wind power • Cellulosic ethanol • Efficient and affordable hybrids, electric vehicles • Energy storage – efficient batteries and condensers • Demand side management of power • Trained human resource CSTEP July 2011