Recent implementations in LPJmL

1. CIRCE WP 7.4 Integration of Ecosystem Services at the Regional Scale Recent implementations in LPJmL river routing, irrigation (Rost et al)‏ new land use / crop distribution (Fader et al)‏ biofuel feedstock functional types (Behringer et al)‏ soon: reservoir management & water transfers (Biemans et al)‏ Holger Hoff Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

2. Recent implementations in LPJmL river routing, irrigation (Rost et al)‏

3. Recent implementations in LPJmL new land use / crop distribution (Fader et al, according to Ramankutty et al 2008)‏

4. LPJ simulation of runoff generation

5. LPJ simulation of river routing

6. LPJ simulation of discharge at river mouth

7. Po Danube Rhone Ebro Seyhan/Ceyhan Moulouya Nile selected Mediterranean river basins Biemans et al 2009

8. Po Rhone Ebro Biemans et al 2009 Moulouya Ceyhan Nile GRDC stations co-registered to STN network

9. Po Rhone Ebro Po - trend Rhone - trend Ebro - trend normalized observed annual runoff (GRDC) and linear trend Ebro observed flow decreased by 64% from 1960 – 2000 (Ludwig et al 2009) Rhone and Po observed flows show little trend

10. mean monthly discharge (1979-1999) GRDC vs LPJmL simulations (different precipitation input data sets for LPJmL simulations)‏ Ebro Ebro: LPJmL does not fully capture the flow reduction from dam building (128 dams) and withdrawals Po Rhone Rhone & Po LPJmL captures total flows better, but not the seasonal modifications from dam building Biemans et al 2009

11. km3 yr-1 total annual runoff into the Black Sea (BS) LPJmL simulation vs observations (Ludwig et al 2009)

12. km3 yr-1 LPJml without Nile (Nile observations added) trend observations (Ludwig) trend total annual runoff into the Mediterranean LPJmL simulation (without Nile) vs observations similar trend in simulation and observations

13. km3 yr-1 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 total runoff into the Black Sea (BS) and Mediterranean (Med) scenarios: ECHAM5 / HadCM3, SRES A2 / B1

14. km3 yr-1 600 500 400 300 200 100 Black Sea Mediterranean Med 5yr running mean BS 5 yr running mean BS trend Med trend total runoff into the Black Sea (BS) and Mediterranean (Med) scenario: „mean climate model“, SRES A2

15. km3 yr-1 total runoff into the Mediterranean for “mean climate model” (SRES A2) without / with irrigation (on current cropland and current area equipped for irrigation)

16. Crop yields LPJmL simulation vs FAO yields (avg 1999-2003 in t DM ha–1) a) for wheat, b) for maize size of the harvested area indicated after FAO calibrated „management“ against FAO Fader et al 2009

17. Crop yields under climate change irrigated wheat rainfed wheat yields in t / ha change between now and 2041-2070 (mean HadCM3 + ECHAM5) no changes in management current climate change southern & eastern Mediterranean countries with low current yields are projected to be more negatively affected, northern Mediterranean countries more positively affected climate & CO2 change

18. Crop yields rainfed maize irrigated maize yields in t / ha change between now and 2041-2070 (mean HadCM3 + ECHAM5) no changes in management current climate change significant decrease without CO2 effect projected across the Mediterranean climate & CO2 change

19. Crop Virtual Water Contents under Climate Change wheat current green virtual water contents in m3 kg-1 change between now and 2041-2070 (mean HadCM3 + ECHAM5) no changes in management climate change climate & CO2 change