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Crop Outlook for 2011

This presentation discusses the outlook for crop prices in 2011 and beyond, considering factors such as general economic conditions, supply and demand concerns, and the impact of biofuels. It provides information on the projected average prices for corn and soybeans, as well as insights on crop futures price movements.

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Crop Outlook for 2011

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  1. Crop Outlook for 2011 Iowa Institute for Cooperatives 2010 Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa November 23, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  5. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  6. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  7. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  8. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  9. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  10. Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  11. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  12. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  13. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  14. States with Room to Grow

  15. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  16. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Fears of Chinese inflation and credit tightening have hit the markets • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.20, Soy $11.45 Futures (as of 11/22/2010): Corn $4.91, Soy $11.33 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 11/22/2010): Corn $4.67, Soy $10.95

  17. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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