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CEdMA Europe Workshop The Future of Learning

CEdMA Europe Workshop The Future of Learning. January 30, 2007 London, UK. Wayne Hodgins. 0. President & Co-Founder Learnativity.org. Chair, IEEE Learning Technology Standards Committee Learning Object Metadata. wayne.hodgins@autodesk.com. Strategic Futurist. Strategic Advisor.

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CEdMA Europe Workshop The Future of Learning

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  1. CEdMA Europe Workshop The Future of Learning January 30, 2007 London, UK Wayne Hodgins

  2. 0 President & Co-Founder Learnativity.org Chair, IEEE Learning Technology Standards Committee Learning Object Metadata wayne.hodgins@autodesk.com Strategic Futurist Strategic Advisor

  3. AGENDA 0930  Coffee and Networking 1000  Introduction 1015  Readiness for the Unexpected: There’s no future if the past is present 1200  Lunch and Networking 1300  "C-ing the Future":  the convergence of Content, Competencies and Context 1430  Break and Networking 1500  Collaborative Session 1630  Summary 1645  Close

  4. Today’s Goals & Outcomes: • New perspectives • We don’t need to think more, we need to think differently! - Albert Einstein • New patterns, trends, directions • Decision support • New ideas to design your own future DIY Goals and Outcomes: • ??

  5. It’s ALL Yours! For Questions & Comments please contact: wayne.hodgins@autodesk.com For slides, blogs, podcasts and more: www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins

  6. www.creativecommons.org

  7. CEdMA Europe Workshop Readiness for the UnexpectedThere’s no Future if the Past is Present January 30, 2007 London, UK Wayne Hodgins

  8. Autodesk Confidential Looking but not seeing?

  9. LEADERSHIPbyEXAMPLE Look Around! Psssssst! That’s YOU too!

  10. GRAND VISION … and some GRAND CHALLENGES

  11. EVERY Cada Uno El aprender sérhver einn lærdómur 0 každý jeden učenost 有らゆる 某 伝習 Каждо Одно Учить Cada Um Aprendizagem svaki neki znanje Jedes Ein Lernen каждый один ученость sulum unus eruditio toda um aprendendo cada un aprendizaje 각 1개 배움 あらゆる 1 つ 勉強 ONE Elk Het leren varje en inlärningen Ogni Uno Imparare her bir bilgi joka ainoa oppi 每 一個 學習 fiecare unul Learning mind egy tanulás svaki pojedinac znanje Κάθε Ένας Εκμάθηση al mulig sig indlæring sleherni nedoločni zaimek učenje każdy jeden wiedza bawa't isa mag-aral LEARNING Hver En Å læring Каждый Один Изучение Chaque Un Étude enhver ettall innlæring всеки един наука todos los días un aprendizaje

  12. Grand Vision • In a word? PERSONALIZATION (Or if you insist on a prefix call it..) meLearning! • Personalized Learning Experiences for every person every day • all 6.4 billion of us -- every day!! • Just for me and just right: • Time, place, amount, device, medium, way… • On demand, adaptive • Markets of one: Billions of Markets • Learning in ALL forms: • Formal AND informal • not just online, on computer, on screen, etc, but every where, every time “Captializing on EVERY Teachable Moment”

  13. GRAND VISIONS … … have equally GRAND CHALLENGES

  14. GRAND CHALLENGES: 0 EVERY! ANY

  15. EVERY one online? (in millions as of 2002) Source: NUA Internet Surveys

  16. As of Jan.11, 2007 World population = 6,796,600,937 Internet users = 1,094,000,000 = 16.09% Everyone online?? http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm

  17. Source: Global-Reach.biz

  18. Autodesk Confidential GRAND CHALLENGES: 0 EVERY ONE ANY

  19. Maybe Goldilocks had it right all along?The ideal is “just right”…. UP • Just the right CONTENT, to • Just the right PERSON, with • Just the right PARTNERS, at • Just the right TIME, on • Just the right DEVICE, in • Just the right CONTEXT, and • Just the right WAY ………

  20. Autodesk Confidential Singularity GRAND CHALLENGES: 0 EVERY LEARNING ONE ANY

  21. Learning • Learning is becoming a CORPORATE IMPERATIVE!! • Focus shifting to augmenting our COGNITIVE limitations • Getting better at getting better • Unlearning • Untapped R&D • eg. DARPA, Navy “Science of Learning”

  22. EVERY Cada Uno El aprender sérhver einn lærdómur 0 každý jeden učenost 有らゆる 某 伝習 Каждо Одно Учить Cada Um Aprendizagem svaki neki znanje Jedes Ein Lernen каждый один ученость sulum unus eruditio toda um aprendendo cada un aprendizaje 각 1개 배움 あらゆる 1 つ 勉強 ONE Elk Het leren varje en inlärningen Ogni Uno Imparare her bir bilgi joka ainoa oppi 每 一個 學習 fiecare unul Learning mind egy tanulás svaki pojedinac znanje Κάθε Ένας Εκμάθηση al mulig sig indlæring sleherni nedoločni zaimek učenje każdy jeden wiedza bawa't isa mag-aral LEARNING Hver En Å læring Каждый Один Изучение Chaque Un Étude enhver ettall innlæring всеки един наука todos los días un aprendizaje

  23. INTO the FUTURE: Lessons from the Past?

  24. DisruptiveInnovation! • There’s one in YOUR future!! • And another one right behind it!

  25. Are we all very very very busy doing this??? Perfecting the Irrelevant?!!

  26. Value Propositions What is YOURS???

  27. Your turn:VALUE PROPOSITIONS What is YOUR value proposition? As a company/organization? As a team/department? As in individual?

  28. The Ice Man Cometh With great thanks to Ron Harden, AMEE for these graphics

  29. Disruptive Innovation Arrives With great thanks to Ron Harden, AMEE for these graphics

  30. Value Proposition ≠ Activity With great thanks to Ron Harden, AMEE for these graphics

  31. Value Propositions • Are you confusing your Activities with your Value Proposition? • Rethink the description of your Value Propopsitions: • Company/organization • Team/department • Personal/individual • Competitive threats often help to bring your value propositions into focus.

  32. Today’s Examples: • Kodak • BBC

  33. Your turn:COMPETITIVE THREAT What does the refrigerator in your future look like??

  34. History of the (software) World Part I • Sunset = automating known process • Perfecting the Irrelevant • Context sensitive software functions • And we thought context sensitive help was hard! • Part II of software history will be: • Mashups • Services

  35. C-ing The Future Premature Arrival of the FUTURE Readiness for the Unexpected Getting small Content Object Model Autodesk FUTUREs? Learning Imperative: Mind the Gap Technology Trends The Long Tail MC2 Closing

  36. Autodesk Confidential Underestimation Artisans?! • Why are we consistently “wrong” or poor at predicting the future? • underestimate the time • underestimate the impact, scope, affect • Healthy impatience? • Linear vs exponential projections into the future

  37. Autodesk Confidential source: www.kurzweilai.net

  38. Autodesk Confidential

  39. Autodesk Confidential Understanding Underestimation LEG: Mind the Gap!! Linear Exponential Gap Exponential Amount Linear Time

  40. Autodesk Confidential TAG you’re it!The Learning Imperative Technology Assimilation Gap Rate of New Technology Introduction & Innovation Amount Rate at Which Marketplace and Individuals Assimilate And VALUE!! Time

  41. Worldwide Services Group TAG: Technology Assimilation Gap Technology Assimilation Gap Rate of New Technology Introduction & Innovation Amount Rate at Which Marketplace and Individuals Assimilate New Time

  42. MC2: Mass Contribution x Mass Customisation 0 • Toffler’s “Pro-Sumer: society coming true! • a la Alvin Toffler “Future Shock” Personalized mass production • Lands End pants • NBA “your highlight film” Think: • DNA • Flexible Manufacturing & Assembly • Pre built Mini-Components & Capabilities Value Proposition is in the DESIGN & ASSEMBLY not the parts! SERVICE-like characteristics! as opposed to “product-like”

  43. The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed! - William Gibson Premature Arrival of the Future The art of the possible in practice today!

  44. Technology trends • MY way! • TiVo effect! • LSA • Latent Semantic Analysis • Digital Ink • Tablet, PDA • Digital Paper • Embedded • Immersive • Unplugged • Always connected

  45. Blog: thelongtail.com

  46. Long Tail • The future of business is selling less for more • The economics of abundance • Creative squandering • Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all • Market of one is the biggest of all? • The “getting small” of business: • Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits! • "The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ • Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books • More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000 • The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are! • Google makes most of its money from small advertisers • eBay the same • Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of print” • Stuck in the physical world for our frame of reference • Transform from mass markets to mass marketing • Finding vs. searching • Collaborative filtering, social recommender systems, pattern recognition

  47. Scarcity Abundance Jan 30, 2007

  48. Anatomy of the Long Tail Courtesy Wired magazine

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