Reinis Ā bolti ņš Centre for Public Policy PROVIDUS

1. ENERGY POLICYFOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH: 20-20-20 Economic Crossroads: From Recovery to Sustainable Growth in the Baltics and EU 24 November 2011 Reinis ĀboltiņšCentre for Public Policy PROVIDUS

2. WHAT DO WE MEAN? • ENERGY POLICY • DEFINING GUIDELINES AND INDICATORS OF WHAT WE WAN TO SEE HAPPENING AT A SET TIME IN THE FUTURE • SUSTAINABLE GROWTH • THE BEST GROWTH WITH THE LEAST NEGATIVE / BEST POSITIVE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

3. EUROPE 2020 TARGETS - 1 • 5 TARGETS • SET PRIORITIES • DOES NOT MEAN NEGLECTING OTHER ISSUES • INTERRELATED AND MUTUALLY REINFORCING • IMPROVEMENTS AND INVESTMENT IN ONE AREA CREATES OPPORTUNITIES IN OTHER AREAS • NO BURDEN-SHARING • COMMON GOALS THAT REQUIRE COMBINED NATIONAL + EU ACTION

4. EUROPE 2020 TARGETS - 2 • EMPLOYMENT • ACHIEVE 75% EMPLOYMENT AMONG 20-64 YEAR-OLDS • RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT • INVEST 3% OF THE EU GDP IN R&D • CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY • CUT GHG EMISSIONS BY 20% (WITH 30% IN MIND) • INCREASE RES SHARE TO 20% • INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY BY 20% • EDUCATION • REDUCE DROP-OUT RATES BELOW 10% • REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION • DECREASE THE NUMBER OF PERSONS AT RISK BY 20M

5. CONTEXT • EU POLICY – 20/20/20 BY 2020 + EVERYTHING STEMMING FROM THAT • REGIONAL APPROACH – F.EX., BEMIP • NATIONAL CHALLENGES – CO2 EMISSIONS, LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TO NAME A FEW • POLICY FRAMEWORK (various strategies, influence of industry lobbies) • INFRASTRUCTURE (f.ex., obstacle to private electric transport) • GRID CAPACITY(ENTSO-E APR 2010 / 10 YEAR NETWORK DEVELOPMENT PLAN) (physical ability of transmission lines to accommodate [unstable] RES electricity) • ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS (coal, lignite, small hydro, wind) • MARKET CONDITIONS (low liquidity, poor interconnectivity, unequal conditions for national incumbents and other participants)

6. SUPPORTIVE FRAMEWORK - 1 • POLITICAL • (BSR EXAMPLE) • BALTIC SEA STRATEGY • ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE • PROSPEROUS • ACCESSIBLE AND ATTRACTIVE • SAFE AND SECURE • ACTION PLAN 2009 – ENERGY • SECURITY • EFFICIENCY • RENEWABLE

7. SUPPORTIVE FRAMEWORK - 2 • PRACTICAL • CONNECTING EUROPE FACILITY • EUR 50BN for transport, energy and digital networks till 2020 • EUR 9.1BN for energy • TRANS-EUROPEAN ENERGY NETWORKS (TEN-E) • Projects of European interest • ENERGY REGIONAL INITIATIVES (ERI) • Towards a single EU electricity market • GAS REGIONAL INITIATIVES (GRI) • A competitive gas market in Europe • BEMIP(COVERS BSR) • Connecting people

8. RES CAPACITY IN THE EU RES in gross final energy consumption (%): current status and targets Proportion of RES in electricity consumption varies significantly across the EU

9. BSR – A VERY RICH “ECOSYSTEM” IN TERMS OF ENERGY SOLUTIONSDEFINITELY A GOOD PLACE FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH Illustration: BALREPA.ORG

10. EXAMPLE - RES POTENTIAL IN THE BSR • EACH COUNTRY HAS ITS SPECIFIC ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES • RES POTENTIAL RATHER TO BE LOOKED AT FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF • POLICY GOALS (industry + environmental policy) • PLANNING STRATEGIES (sustainability) • MARKET CONDITIONS (favourable to RES?) • AVAILABLE INFRASTRUCTURE (possibility to accommodate RES electricity or consume RES heat)

11. RES CAPACITY IN THE BSR Total generation of electricityand generation from renewable energy sources in TWh, 2010 Capacities vary and so does the proportion of RES in electricity production Source: “Developing a Regional Cooperation for Renewables in the Electricity Sector. The Example of the Baltic Sea Region”, FACTWISE, January 2011

12. EXAMPLE - RES POTENTIAL IN THE BSR • DEPENDS ON THE CONTEXT AND WHAT TARGETS THE BSR COUNTRIES HAVE SET FOR THEMSELVES • ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF ELECRICITY GENERATION FROM RES (TWh)

13. CHALLENGES • SUSTAINABILITY = AN OVERARCHING PRINCIPLE • FOSSIL VS RENEWABLE: A MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE DICHOTOMY? (the answer is NO) • DO NOT EXCLUDE, BUT RATHER INCLUDE • STRIKE THE RIGHT BALANCE

14. MAY ENERGY BE WITH YOU!