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Crude Oil Pipelines, Cushing OK and the Market

Crude Oil Pipelines, Cushing OK and the Market. Lipow Oil Associates, LLC Andrew M. Lipow February 17, 2011. Agenda. Supply and Demand Market Impacts Cushing OK Interchange Pipeline Infrastructure Change Summary. Supply and Demand MMBD. 2001 2010 World 75.7 88.0

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Crude Oil Pipelines, Cushing OK and the Market

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  1. Crude Oil Pipelines, Cushing OKand the Market Lipow Oil Associates, LLC Andrew M. Lipow February 17, 2011

  2. Agenda • Supply and Demand • Market Impacts • Cushing OK Interchange • Pipeline Infrastructure Change • Summary Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  3. Supply and DemandMMBD 2001 2010 World 75.7 88.0 United States 19.6 19.2 China 4.6 8.8 Canadian Imports to USA 1.3 2.0 PADD II Production 0.45 0.67 Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  4. Crude Oil Flow • Increased production moving southbound • Less demand moving northbound • No pipeline from Cushing to USGC • Brent more often than not now a premium to WTI • Market driving incentive to get to USGC Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  5. Lockport Crude Oil Flow Enbridge from Canada Enbridge To IN,MI,OH TransCanada Keystone Mustang Marathon, IL,OH Spearhead Capwood Patoka Woodpat Mid Valley To Ohio Ozark Cushing Capline W. Texas Gulf Seaway Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  6. Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  7. Simplified Cushing Pipeline System BP Spearhead Cushing Storage 56 MMB Patoka WhiteCliffs Plains Wood River Osage SemCrude Ozark BlueKnt Cashion Cushing Sunoco Sunoco COP WestTulsa Phillips Red River BKEP Hawthorn Basin Centurion Centurion Seaway Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  8. New Pipeline Infrastructure • Canada to the US Gulf Coast • Bakken takeaway from Montana/N. Dakota • Eagle Ford to US Gulf Coast/Mid Continent • Cushing to Anywhere Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  9. New Pipeline InfrastructureCanada to USA • TransCanada Keystone Pipeline Phase 1 Capacity 435 MBD In service July 2010 • Enbridge Alberta Clipper Capacity 450 MBD, Ultimate Capacity 800 MBD In Service July 2010 • Enbridge Southern Access Extension Flanagan to Patoka : Proposed back in 2006 Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  10. New Pipeline InfrastructureEagle Ford • Enterprise 140 miles new pipeline Karnes County to Austin County Ultimate Capacity 350 MBD In Service Date 4Q2011 • Enterprise Crude Oil Terminal Access to Texas City/Houston area refineries In service Date Mid 2012 Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  11. New Pipeline InfrastructureEagle Ford • Koch 16 Inch Pipeline Karnes County to Corpus Christi Ultimate Capacity 200 MBD In Service Date 4Q2012 • Other Koch Projects Koch/Arrowhead Pipeline Capacity 50 MBD In service Date 2011 Misc Projects to add 90 MBD by end 2011 Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  12. New Pipeline InfrastructureCushing Oklahoma • Centurion Reversal to Holly Pipeline 40 MBD • Plains Red River Reversal 15-20 • Blueknight Energy Eagle Pipeline 17.5 Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  13. Proposed Pipeline InfrastructureCushing Oklahoma • TransCanada Cushing Market Link 155 MBD • Enbridge Project Monarch 350 MBD • Magellan Longhorn Reversal 200 MBD • Six projects with Cushing Takeaway Capacity Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

  14. Summary • Take Away Capacity pressures LLS/WTI spread • Storage Capacity limits deep contango • Improving LS Crude Refining Margin Corpus Lipow Oil Associates, LLC

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