The ESA Climate Change Initiative

1. The ESA Climate Change Initiative Earth System Science 2010 Global Change, Climate and People Edinburgh May 11, 2010

2. Some points picked up yesterday • Roseanna Cunningham, MSP- Minister for Environment • Dialogue Scientists / Politics • Prof. Jacqueline McGlade - European Environment Agency • Quality Assured Data and Traceability • Link to in-situ Data • Prof. Berrien Moore - University of New Hampshire • Compare model with long time series of satellite data

3. Quality Assured Data and Traceability Metrological barriers ?

4. Metrological barriers • The importance of calibration traceably to SI units. • For climate applications, long time-series of data requires records from a series of sensors from separate agencies using different engineering designs and different procedures for characterisation and calibration of the sensors. For climate applications, especially, this can be a major obstacle to acceptance by the user communities of satellite data-records. (Prof. David Llewellyn-Jones – U. Leicester) • Inter-comparison experiments • It is essential for the integrity of their use, that any differences in their measurements are understood, so that any potential biases are removed and are not transferred to satellite sensors. (Evangelos Theocharous – NPL) • talking about Field-deployed infrared radiometers

5. Metrological barriers • A Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation • The QA4EO Initiative has led to a set of guidelines which aims to set out realistic and practical procedures which can be followed in the calibration and validation of earth-observing (satellite) sensors (David Llewelling-Jones)

6. QA4EO Background • The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) must deliver “timely, quality, long-term, global information ” to meet the needs of its nine “societal benefit areas”. • This will be achieved through the synergistic use of data derived from a variety of sources (satellite, airborne and surface-based) and the coordination of resources and efforts of the members. • Accomplishing this vision, starting from a system of disparate systems that were built for a multitude of applications, requires the establishment of an internationally coordinated framework to facilitate interoperability and harmonisation. • The success of this framework is dependent upon the successful implementation of a single key principle: • all EO data and derived products shall have associated with it a documented and fully traceable quality indicator (QI). • Success also necessitates the means to efficiently communicate this attributes to all stakeholders.

7. QA4EOEssential Principle Data and derived products shall have associated with them an indicator of their quality to enable users to assess its suitability for their application. “fitness for purpose” QA4EO Essential Principle Quality Indicators (QIs) should be ascribed to data and Products. A QI should provide sufficient information to allow all users to readily evaluate its “fitness for purpose”. Quality Indicators QI needs to be based on a documented and quantifiable assessment of evidence demonstrating the level of traceability to internationally agreed (where possible SI) reference standards. Traceability

8. Reliability and issues with historical temperature records • Over land measurements are produced at stations. It is important to correct biases caused by changes in station location and to eliminate any individual observations with large errors. Processing of SST observations is more complicated than land because of large instrumental changes. (Dick Reynolds)

9. The Climate Change Initiative Programme The background

10. Climate Change Initiative • The objective of Climate Change Initiative is to realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA together with its Member states have established over the last thirty years, as a significant and timely contribution to the ECV databases required by UNFCCC. • It will ensure that full capital is derived from ongoing and planned ESA missions for climate purposes, including ERS, Envisat, the Earth Explorer missions, relevant ESA-managed archives of Third-Party Mission data and, in due course, the GMES Space Component.

11. Climate Change Initiative • Based on this analysis the following five main activities will be implemented to achieve the overall objective: • Gathering, collating and preserving the long-term time series in ESA’s distributed archives. • (Re-)Processing periodically the basic EO-data sets from each individual mission and applying the most up-to-date algorithms and cal/val corrections. • Integrating the calibrated data sets derived from individual contributing EO mission and sensors to constitute the most comprehensive and well-characterized global long term records possible for each ECV. • Assessing the trends and consistency of the ECV records in the context of climate models and assimilation schemes. • Developing improved algorithms and data models for production of the required variables from emerging data sources, consistent with the long term record

12. Two climate action paths GCOS-82 in 2003 GCOS-92 in 2004 GCOS-107 in 2006 CEOS response 2006 GEOSS 10-year plan in 2005 CEOS IP for GEOSS in 2007

13. GEOSS IP 2005 GCOS IP 2004 ESA CCI: Production of Essential Climate Variables (ECV) according to GCOS requirements Part of GEO task CL-06-01 Precursor example ESA Ministerial Council, Nov 2008: Approval of 75 M€ for a six year programme that will contribute to about twenty satellite-based ECVs. A strong interaction with the scientific community is an essential part of the programme. The CCI initiative will ensure that ESA can play a full role in deriving relevant ECVs specified by GCOS, based on ESA current and archived EO data. ESA will work with CEOS agencies to ensure as complete a coverage of the entire suite of ECVs as possible.

14. Data Access Earth Explorers Envisat / ERS National Missions GMES Sentinels Meteo Missions (Eumetsat) Climate Observations Research and Services Stakeholders, Users, Decision-makers Basic Research Operational Applied Research Climate Services Assessment Products Information Prediction Attribution Modeling Assimilation ESA Climate Change Initiative Observation, Data and Analysis (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008)

15. The Climate Change Initiative Programme The Essential Climate Variables

16. Satellite-based ECVs GCOS – 107 Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Product for Climate Page 81

17. GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)  EVs GCOS – 107 Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Product for Climate Page 12 and 13

18. GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)  EVs CCI First Steps (11 ECVs) GCOS – 107 Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Product for Climate Page 12 and 13

19. Data from each sensor contributes to FCDR of several ECVs FCDR of each ECV requires data from several sensors ESA missions data => FCDRs => ECVs

20. ESA missions data => FCDRs => ECVs The time component – the 3rd dimension

21. The Climate Change Initiative Programme The International Scientific Cooperation

22. International Scientific Cooperation • To succeed, the CCI programme must meet the needs of international Climate Research community and contribute effectively to the collective international response to GCOS, via CEOS and GEO. • ⇒ Each CCI project (the contractor) shall meet the specific needs of a well identified, specialized climate research community by addressing the corresponding GCOS requirements • Key elements of the international framework for this programme are: • GCOS: which represents the scientific and technical requirements of the Global Climate Observing System on behalf of UNFCCC and IPCC. • International Climate Research Programmes, which represent the collective interests and priorities of the worldwide climate research communities • CEOS: which serves as a focal point for Earth Observation related activities of Space Agencies in the GEO framework • Individual Partner Space Agencies with whom ESA cooperates bilaterally • EC and National Research Programmes which establish research priorities and provide resources for climate research community within Europe • Individual end-user organizations in ESA member states and worldwide, climate research, monitoring and modelling practitioners who are active in the IPCC processes • The ESA executive will ensure the necessary international coordination at programme

23. International Scientific Cooperation • Each CCI project team must implement the necessary international scientific coordination at project level. In practice, this means that • Each CCI project team (the contractor): • ⇒ Within Europe: shall take full advantage of existing results, on-going projects, and future funding opportunities from national research programmes, from EUMETSAT and from the EC 7th Framework Programme, when planning, implementing and reviewing the progress of their CCI project. • ⇒ On the international scene: shall coordinate activities with non-European teams, and seek independent scientific review of methods and validation of results, under the auspices of the authoritative international scientific bod(ies), most appropriate for each ECV.

24. The Climate Change Initiative Programme The implementation

25. “baseline” data requirement per ECV

26. CCI Data requestsnot limited to ESA missions

27. International Scientific Cooperation • All proposals have links with independent bodies: • IOCCG, IPCC, WCRP, IGBP, GHRSST, CLIVAR • All proposals are linked to European projects • EUCLIPS, EUGENE, EUCAARI, AMARSI, PASODOBLE • All proposal are linked to international Projects • GEWEX, GAW, IGBP, GCOS, GTOS, GLIMS • All the proposal have IPPC lead or co-authors in their team • Some proposals include non European scientists from US, Japan, etc..)

28. Conclusions • The ESA Climate Change Initiative is positioned at the crossing point between Science and Operation. • On the science side, one finds • Instruments calibration and algorithms  FCDR • Geophysical products Validation and algorithms • Data merging / fusions  ECV • Assimilation in Climate models for product assessment • On the operation side • Multi-sensor products • Long time series • System design • This is certainly a very comprehensive and thorough approach to tackle the development of Essential Climate Variable for Assimilation in Climate models.

29. Science and Politics Some considerations

30. Climate Observations Stakeholders, Users, Decision-makers Basic Research Operational Applied Research Climate Services Assessment Products Information Prediction Attribution Modeling Assimilation Observation, Data and Analysis (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008)

31. Some final considerations • 2 degrees, 350 ppm, zero emission today • Floating houses ?? For whom ?? • Katrina

32. Floating Houses ?? For whom ??

33. Nearly five years later, thousands of displaced residents in Mississippi and Louisiana are still living in trailers. Katrina impact… • The casino shut down in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in August 29th, 2005 but reopened in the midst of Mardi Gras on February 17, 2006. (Wikipedia)