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Global Warming & You

Global Warming & You. Dave Siegel Director, Institute for Computational Earth System Science Professor, Department of Geography March 22, 2007. Recent Focus on Earth System Science…. What is Earth System Science?. The science of global change. Evidence for Global Warming  

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Global Warming & You

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  1. Global Warming & You • Dave Siegel • Director, Institute for Computational Earth System Science • Professor, Department of Geography • March 22, 2007

  2. Recent Focus on Earth System Science…

  3. What is Earth System Science? The science of global change

  4. Evidence for Global Warming   - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (www.ipcc.ch) Role of the Carbon Cycle - Fossil vs. renewable carbon sources Consequences & Predictions   Our options … Global Climate Change  

  5. PNAS 2006;103;14288-14293.

  6. Living foraminifera: Globigerinoides ruber 0.25 mm

  7. PNAS 2006;103;14288-14293.

  8. Qori Kalis ice tongue, Quelccaya Glacier, Peru: 1978 vs. 2000 Source: Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University: http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/glacgone.htm "These glaciers are very much like the canaries once used in coal mines. They're an indicator of massive changes taking place . . .in the tropics."

  9. Portage Glacier, Alaska

  10. IPCC [2007]

  11. http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htmhttp://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm

  12. Nature, 444, 752-755, 2006

  13. Nature, 444, 752-755, 2006

  14. cool ocean warm ocean = low NPP warm ocean Nature, 444, 752-755, 2006

  15. Pre-industrial = 280 ppm & present = 385 ppm Trends are related to fossil fuel releases Annual cycle due to terrestrial biosphere exchanges Atmospheric CO2 Mauna Loa Dave Keeling

  16. Carbon Dioxide Sources Figure 10.29

  17. Carbon Dioxide Sources IPCC [2001]

  18. Predicting Future Climates Need emission scenarios – socioeconomic prediction!! IPCC [2001]

  19. IPCC [2001]

  20. Likely Future Climates IPCC [2007]

  21. “If the scientists are right about an apocalyptic future of floods, droughts, dead coral reefs, rising sea levels and advancing deserts, global warming is an existential threat that should affect our approach to just about every issue. To take it seriously, we would have to change the way we think about transportation, agriculture, development, water resources, natural disasters, foreign relations and more.” Warming to the Inconvenient FactsBy Michael GrunwaldWashington Post, July 23, 2006

  22. Using less energy & increasing efficiency helps Must have zero-emission energy alternatives (no fossil CO2!) - solar, wind, nuclear, advanced biofuels Carbon capture and sequestration - or - Continue “Business As Usual” and rely on adaptation and/or engineering solutions? Options

  23. Thank you for your attention IPCC: www.ipcc.ch Me: www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey

  24. Stott et al., 2000, Science:Annual-mean global mean near-surface temperature anomalies (relative to 1881-1920) for the NATURAL, ANTHRO, and ALL ensembles. Ensemble members are shown as colored lines, and observations are shown as a black line. Atmospheric CO2 levels are 621 ppm in 2100 (scenario B2). HadCM3 model.

  25. An international treaty—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Over a decade ago, many countries joined this treaty to deal with global warming The Kyoto Protocol is an addition to the UNFCCC and the 1992 Rio Accord The UNFCCC

  26. Reduce the intensity of global warming, 38 industrialized nations must lower emissions of 6 greenhouse gases by 2008-2012 Greenhouse gases to be reduced by an average 5.2% below 1990 levels Implemented just last month May not be enough… Kyoto Protocol

  27. ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) El Niño is the abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific – named by Peruvians who noticed that it often occurred around Christmas (”the boy”) - also it came when fish catches were low… southern oscillation - shift in the pressure and trade wind patterns over the Pacific - implications for location of the warm water pool and convection ENSO drives much of interannual weather variations

  28. El Nino & weather southeast US and western S. America are both wetter in winter NH winter much of Alaska and Pacific NW are warmer in winter Australia, Indonesia, and S. Africa are drier NH summer

  29. for period 1999-2004 Nature, 444, 752-755, 2006

  30. Hadley cells intensify as source of heat is now in central equatorial Pacific Jet stream intensifies & takes south path El Niño & Subtropical Jet Stream

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