Climate Change Impacts and Potential Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds in the Philippines

1. Climate Change Impacts and Potential Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds in the Philippines Rodel D. Lasco Professor University of the Philippines

2. 7 Steps of Climate Impacts and Adaptations Assessment (UNEP, 1996) 1 DEFINING PROBLEM SELECT METHOD 2 3 TEST METHOD/SENSITIVITY 4 FORMULATE INPUTS ANDASSUMPTIONS ASSESS BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS 5 6 ASSESS AUTONOMOUS ADJUSTMENT 7 EVALUATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

3. APF Project Example (UNEP, 2003) 1. Scope project design 2. Assess Current Vulnerability Engage Stake- holders Increase Adaptive capacity 3.Characterise Future Climate-related Risks 4. Develop Adaptation Strategy 5. Continue Adaptation Process

4. Water Resources

7. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources • Increase in volume • Decrease in streamflow • Increase severity, frequency and variability • Increase in soil erosion and sedimentation • Increase in the demand for water

8. Table 1. Changes in precipitation, temperature, and runoff for Angat water reservoir from three GCMs (based on 2xCO2) Source: Jose et al., 1996

10. Adaptation Strategies Increase water supply • Modify vegetation • Impoundment • Reduce evaporation • Water importation

11. Adaptation Strategies 2 Decrease water demand • Decrease water demanding activities • Behavioral change • Water reuse • Recycling • Economic instruments

12. Adaptation Strategies 3 Manage supply and demand • Synchronize cropping systems to match water availability • Maximize multiple use of water

13. Table 5 Supply and demand adaptation strategies for the water resources sector of the Philippines Source: Cruz, 2002

18. Forest resources

21. Impacts on Forest Resources in the Philippines • most of the forest resources of the country are in watershed areas • tropical forests will likely expand as temperature and precipitation increase • Increased forest clearing due to: • Droughts and floods • Inc population and dec in arable lands • Increase vulnerability to fires

22. T change may lead to a loss of a few species of plants and animals • changes in T and precipitation may result to the outbreak of pests and diseases

23. Potential Adaptation Options (IPCC, 2001) • Forest management used to long term decisions under uncertain future market and biological conditions • Most adaptation will occur under managed forests • Salvaging dead and dying timber • Replanting with species better suited to new climate • Planting genetically modified species • Intensifying or decreasing management

24. Exotics vs indigenous species?

25. Biodiversity conservation