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2007

Russia -2020: Technological Modernization. XI International Economic Forum in Peterburg. 2007. ЦМАКП. A new stage of development. Today, a new agenda is formed. The focus shifts from stabilization to sustainable growth .

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2007

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  1. Russia-2020: Technological Modernization XI International Economic Forum in Peterburg 2007

  2. ЦМАКП A new stage of development • Today, a new agenda is formed. The focus shifts from stabilization to sustainable growth. • Oil “windfall profit”-based growth opportunities present today are obviously exhausted in the mid-term perspective • In addition, new critical long-term challenges arise: • demography – labor scarceness and ageing population lead to a к быстрому росту пенсионной нагрузки. There is also a range of migration challenges; • technology – a start of a new technology age in developed countries. 2

  3. ЦМАКП Challenges and limitations on growth perspectives Energy: • More capital-intensive extraction meansless return on prospective investments; • A rise in demand for edge-cutting technologies as resource extraction is harder in new fields/deposits. Shipping: • Competition wth China (TRACECA is almost complete, 300-400 km left); • конфликт с другими направлениями использования опорной транспортной сети (Транссиб); Hi-tech capabilities: • Insufficient focus on top research priorities; • Lack of adequate researchers in some areas; • Lack of shared vision of technological development by government, business and research society. Widening rift between fundamental and applied science, and between demand from business and applied science • Need for venture institutions supporting large projects; • Distorted motivation for business innovations 3

  4. ЦМАКП • Technological modernization is a key : • realizing competitive advantages in science and technology • mass industry modernization Research potential • Russia is among top 15 research spenders (PPP-based); • Russia is the third on number employed in science after U.S. and China по численности занятых в этой сфере; • Russian science retained ability to conduct contemporary research in wide range of areas 4

  5. ЦМАКП The scope of research potential Domestic R&D spending (PPP-based USD bn, 2004) R&D employment (thousands, 2004) 5

  6. ЦМАКП Research potential: resource concentration R&D spending on a person employed (PPP USD ‘000, 2004) 6

  7. ЦМАКП Research potential: cost and result Hi-tech exports and R&D spending (as % of GDP, 2001) Loss from cost-result disparity in innovations is estimated at 23-25 USD bn. per year. Unrealized technology export gains account for 22-24 USD bn. per year, while undervalued exports account for another 1 USD bn. 7

  8. ЦМАКП Research potential: goals for Russia • To secure developed markets position: • products should conform to quality and technology standards; • customer needs should be a priority; • life-long service and maintenance for production. • 2. To provide sustainable growth • 3-5% yearly energy intensity decrease; • 6-7% yearly labor productivity increase; • energy industry development measures – new APP development, extraction under unfavorable natural conditions; gas transit from arctic zone. • 3. To realize national technological achievements and advantages: • aerospace industry (WIG craft, supersonic passenger aircraft, гиперзвуковые ЛА); • nuclear energy (fast neutron reactors) 8

  9. ЦМАКП Research potential: internal goals Required efficiency growth (%) 9

  10. ЦМАКП Research potential: development strategies • Catching-up scenario • Provide the needs of business, energy industry and national defense with minimum risk: • intensive research on a limited scope of technologies needed by energy industry and Ministry of Defense; • development of innovation system to select and adapt imported technologies. • 2. Local leadership scenario • Emergence of a strong national R&D system. Active participation in hi-tech markets based on technological advantages: • edge-cutting technological achievements realizing competitive advantage in research and emergence of new markets; • launching global projects lead by Russian enterprises; • developing R&D institutions to match ongoing R&D to business demand. 10

  11. ЦМАКП National competitiveness New R&D policy • Combining institutional and project approach • new technology monitoring system; • shared vision of future developments by business and government (technology foresight); • focus on a limited number of breakthrough projects with sizeable system impact; • forming national innovation infrastructure. Institutionalization of technology market, including intellectual property protection; • providing incentives for hi-tech upgrade of the industry. 11

  12. ЦМАКП Research potential: probable impact from implementation Capabilities for increasing export of machines and equipment(USD bn) 12

  13. ЦМАКП 13

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