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The 14-19 Agenda

The 14-19 Agenda. Geoff Hayward Associate Director of SKOPE Nuffield 14-19 Review. Learning pays. Old news the more education you have the more you get paid the less likely you are to be unemployed, the healthier you will be

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The 14-19 Agenda

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  1. The 14-19 Agenda Geoff Hayward Associate Director of SKOPE Nuffield 14-19 Review

  2. Learning pays • Old news • the more education you have the more you get paid • the less likely you are to be unemployed, the healthier you will be • you will have better developed social values that underpin active citizenship • It is therefore socially and economically desirable to support continuing participation and qualification post-16

  3. Some caveats • Rates of return analyses indicate • Having a degree really pays • Having A levels provides a good rate of return • Level 3 Vocational Qualifications provide a reasonable return • GCSEs a lower but still significant return • Level 2 Vocational Qualifications only provide a return for some (men in traditional craft sectors)

  4. We do poorly internationally • One of the lowest participation rates amongst OECD countries • Productivity per worker is higher in OECD countries with more highly skilled work forces • Our qualification rates are now matching or even surpassing those of Germany and France • But we may still have a shortage of vocational skills at Level 3 – technicians and associate professionals

  5. Overall Participation 16-18 • Participation increased sharply between 1986 and 1993 and then stabilised • By the end of 2003 participation rates were • 87% of 16 year-olds • 80% of 17 year-olds • 60% of 18 year-olds • 75% of 16-18 year-olds • Commonest destination for those not staying on is the labour market

  6. Participation in different routes • The vast majority participate via full-time education and training. In 2003 • 72% of 16 year-olds • 60% of 17 year-olds • 37% of 18 year olds • The work-based route has declined in popularity since the mid 1980s but the rate of decline is now slowing. In 2003 • 10% of 16 year-olds • 14% of 17 year-olds • 16% of 18 year-olds

  7. Academic v Vocational Routes • Participation in both academic and vocational full-time routes has increased • At Level 3 75% of learners are taking GCE A/AS levels the majority in school sixth forms • At Level 2 85% are taking vocational courses the majority in FE colleges • The change in participation is driven by increasing GCSE attainment at 16 and an apparent economic rationality, but differs by gender, ethnic group, socio-economic background and geographic region

  8. Challenges • Retention and achievement rates in vocational routes are improving but remain below GCE A level • The progression rate in vocational routes is low – less than 30% who complete Level 1/2 progress to Level 3. • Early progression into the Labour Market for too many 16 and 17 year olds • Drop out into the NEET group – require special measures and a very heterogeneous group.

  9. Leaving early • More likely to do so if you are white, less well qualified (but not unqualified), from poorer backgrounds but 65% live in homes that are owned by parents or carers. • Main destination is a low skill, low wage job – labelled as jobs without training (JWT) • Males are significantly more likely to be in full-time employment than females • 70% say that their jobs are permanent • A significant proportion (46%) receive on-the-job training; a smaller proportion (about 12%) off-the-job training • Generally this training does not lead to qualifications

  10. Type of employment • SOC gives the top five jobs as: • Sales Assistants • Clerks, not otherwise specified • Cleaners and domestics • Counter hands and catering assistants • Waiters and waitresses • SIC gives top five areas as • Wholesale, retail, repair of motor vehicles • Manufacturing • Hotels and Restaurants • Construction • Real estate, renting and business activities

  11. Work and rewards • Median working week is 39 hours • Median wage £100-£125 per week • Those in JWT seem to earn significantly more than those on apprenticeship programmes • Is this a bad news story? • Youth unemployment rate in the UK is at the lower end for the OECD countries

  12. Encouraging staying on • Politically difficult – over 100 pieces of policy in England and Wales in the lat 15 years; participation rate has not increased in the last decade. • Generally reform is focused on changing the qualification system • Real issues are motivational and cognitive – why do some young people not want to try and find it difficult to learn in school?

  13. 14-19 and the regional skills agenda • Some young people don’t see the need to try • there is perceived to be an adequate supply of unskilled jobs to meet the imagined future needs of the young people who leave. • Cultural and family resources do not promote staying on • There is a lack of appropriate progression opportunities • How might the regional agenda focus on meeting the learning needs of these young people?

  14. 14-19 and the regional skills agenda • In European countries social partners – schools/colleges, employers, trade unions - are more closely engaged with each other at a regional level enabling a closer link between vocational qualifications and labour markets. In part this is underpinned by a more regulated labour market and a shared culture of rights and responsibilities. • How might this be achieved in a less regulated UK labour market?

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