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A Cubic Mile of Oil

Realities and Options for Averting the Global Energy Crisis. A Cubic Mile of Oil. Ripudaman Malhotra, Ph.D. SRI International Menlo Park. Energy Challenge: Tough Choices Ahead Time to reframe the debate about energy supply.

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A Cubic Mile of Oil

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  1. Realities and Options for Averting the Global Energy Crisis A Cubic Mile of Oil Ripudaman Malhotra, Ph.D. SRI International Menlo Park

  2. Energy Challenge: Tough Choices AheadTime to reframe the debate about energy supply • Current practices of energy production and consumption are unsustainable • Energy use is central to our way of life, and the consequences of not meeting future energy demands are dire • Tension between protecting the environment and social justice • A comprehensive energy policy must acknowledge the magnitude of the problem

  3. How Much Energy Do We Use?A good question to ask, but we confront a tower of Babel • Different units for different sources • Gallons or barrels for oil • Tons or BTUs for coal • SCFs for natural gas • kWh for electrical energy • Lack of uniform units • Presents a serious impediment to meaningful discussion • Creates confusion: millions, billions, trillions, quadrillions!!!

  4. mile mile A Cubic Mile of Oil – CMOUnderstandable unit: mental image CMO is a unit of energy coined by SRI’s Hew Crane in the 1970s while waiting in line to buy gasoline. His realization: annual global oil consumption was then approaching one cubic mile! Statue of Liberty mile

  5. Annual Global Energy Consumption, 2006 We are living off our inheritance – how long will it last? Total 3.14 CMO

  6. Changes in energy pattern: 2006 to 2012 • Overall energy use increased 13% over the 6 years • There was a marked decline in 2009 and 2010 following the economic crisis, but it rebounded in 2011. • Net increase by 0.41 cmo ➟ 3.55 cmo • Wind and Solar increased 250% • Installed capacity for wind increased almost four-fold: 74 GW ➟ 284 GW • Installed capacity for PV solar: 6.9 GW ➟ 10.0 GW • Total energy from renewables: 0.02 cmo ➟ 0.05 cmo • Most of the energy increase came from fossil sources • Coal: 0.17 cmo • Natural gas: 0.11 cmo • Oil: 0.07 cmo • Global CO2 emissions from energy use: 30.3 Gt ➟ 34.5 Gt • US CO2 emissions from energy use declined by 0.8 Gt

  7. Annual Global Energy Consumption, 2012 Pattern essentially unchanged Total 3.55 CMO

  8. It takes Energy Use to get up on UN HDI scale

  9. What Drives Energy Consumption?Standard of living, not population alone, drives energy use Global Average Additional 1.48 CMO Additional 0.68 CMO

  10. Σ Projected Energy Demand by 2050Energy needed to support the world’s 5.5% GDP growth rate 270 CMO 3.5 CMO/yr today9.0 CMO/yr in 2050? 214 CMO 163 CMO 179 CMO Variable profile

  11. Reserves Depend on Technology and PriceAdditional resources become viable at higher prices

  12. How Much Oil, Gas, and Coal Do We Have Left?We have plenty of fossil fuels, but mostly in unconventional sources Oil Gas Coal Reserves 46 42 66 AdditionalResource 94 AdditionalResource 120 Reserves 1500 Additional Resource 400Unconventional Tar sands, oil shales 5,000 Unconventional Gas hydrates Their continued use increases atmospheric CO2 levels They will be needed while we switch to other sources

  13. Coal-to-Liquids • Uncertainty in supply of petroleum drives the need to develop alternate liquid fuels • Established technology • Used by countries during war time (Japan, Germany) or economic boycott (South Africa) • Sasol in South Africa produces coal-derived liquids commercially with a total capacity of over 150,000 bpd. It has plans for building several other facilities in China and India • Conventional CTL production increases the environmental burden; each barrel of JP-8 • Produces about 680 kg CO2 • Consumes more than 235 kg of water • CTL plants have not been built because of unfavorable economics • Capital cost estimates range from $70,000 to $125,000/daily barrel

  14. DARPA Challenge, 2008 • Devise a CTL process for JP8 that meets the following criteria • Process scalable to 100,000 bbl/day • Production cost of JP8 less than $3.00/gallon • No CO2 emissions during process • Water consumption less than 235 kg/barrel • Capital cost less than $15,000/daily barrel • Assume availability of CO2-free electricity

  15. Disclaimer The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies, either expressly or implied, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or the U.S. Government. Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited

  16. SRI approach to Achieving the DARPA targets Cleanup Gasifier Methanol Reactor Propylene Reactor Diesel Reactor Mercury NH3 Slag Sulfur Recycle gases Coal CH4 Water Co-gasify coal and methane (hydrogen from CH4 avoids water consumption) Process intensification (all C to JP-8) further reduces capital cost Adjust ratio to produce CO + 2H2, ideal for methanol Use efficient COTS technology for methanol to JP-8

  17. Projected Cost Estimate • Total Capex: $32,000 pdb; contributes $0.21/gal to production cost • Production cost: $2.81/gal (PRB coal $14/ton; Nat Gas $4.80/MBtu; Electricity: $100/MWh) Represents a way to store green electricity as tranportation fuel

  18. Sensitivity of Production Cost

  19. Unconventional Resources: Shale Gas and Shale Oil • Since 2005, shale gas and shale oil output in the US has increased markedly • US Resource estimates • Technically recoverable shale gas: 482 tcf (3.1 cmo) • Technically recoverable shale oil: 33.2 billion barrels (1.2 cmo) • Increased use of shale gas has helped the US reduce reduce CO2 emissions • Reduction not just due to economic recession • Lower price of natural gas has spurred switch of electricity production from coal to gas, thereby reducing US CO2emissions by 250 million tonnes

  20. Oil shale is not shale oil! • Oil shale is the sedimentary rock with the precursor to oil, kerogen • Requires heating to liberate the oil • Retorting the mined rock • Underground heating • Commercial production only in Estonia, China, and Brazil • Global resource is huge; exceeds 2.8 trillion barrels of oil (>100 cmo); US resource estimate ≈ 2.0 trillionbarrels (75 cmo) Comparable to Saudi Arabia’s 260 billion barrels of oil reserves

  21. The Surge? Comparing Production and Consumption of Oil US and Saudi Arabia

  22. US Energy Independence?

  23. Plant a TreeUrgent because we are late The great French marshal Lyautey once asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected that the tree was slow growing and would not reach maturity for 100 years. The marshal replied, “In that case, there is no time to lose; plant it this afternoon!”

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