A Cubic Mile of Oil

1. Realities and Options for Averting the Looming Global Energy Crisis A Cubic Mile of Oil Ripudaman Malhotra, Ph.D. SRI International Menlo Park Nov 6, 2012 San Jose State University

2. Energy Challenge: Tough Choices AheadTime to reframe the debate about energy supply • Current practices of energy production and consumption are unsustainable • Energy use is central to our way of life, and the consequences of not meeting future energy demands are dire • Tension between protecting the environment and social justice • A comprehensive energy policy must acknowledge the magnitude of the problem

3. How Much Energy Do We Use?A good question to ask, but we confront a tower of Babel • Different units for different sources • Gallons or barrels for oil • Tons or BTUs for coal • SCFs for natural gas • kWh for electrical energy • Lack of uniform units • Presents a serious impediment to meaningful discussion • Creates confusion: millions, billions, trillions, quadrillions!!!

4. mile mile A Cubic Mile of Oil – CMOUnderstandable unit: mental image CMO is a unit of energy coined by SRI’s Hew Crane in the 1970s while waiting in line to buy gasoline. His realization: annual global oil consumption was then approaching one cubic mile! Statue of Liberty mile

5. CMO: Cubic Mile of Oil EquivalentA unit appropriate for global energy flows • 1 CMO ≅ 1.1 trillion gallons of oil26 Billion (109) bbl oil • 1 CMO ≅ current annual worldwide oil consumption • 1 CMO is equivalent to: • 153 Quadrillion (1015) Btu (Quads) • 6.4 Billion (109) tons of hard coal • 15.3 Trillion (1012) kWh electricity (At 10,000 Btu/kWh; not 3412 Btu/kWh) 1 Btu ≅ the energy from a burning match 8 hours of cardio ≅ 1kWh ≅ 0.1 gal of oil

6. Annual Global Energy Consumption We are living off our inheritance – how long will it last? Total 3.0 CMO/yr 2006 Data

7. How Do We Use Energy?

8. Where Is Energy Produced and Consumed?Asia Pacific and North America producemore energy than the Middle East Region; they also consumemore! 1.0 Hydropower Nuclear Power 0.9 Coal 0.8 Gas Oil 0.7 0.6 0.5 CMO 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 North America Central/South America Europe Russian Group Asian/Pacific Middle East/ North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

9. What Drives Energy Consumption?Standard of living, not population alone, drives energy use Global Average Additional 1.48 CMO Additional 0.68 CMO

10. Current Energy Consumption across Population Unit = cubic kilometer of oil: ¼ CMO Hans Rolfing

11. Projected Future Energy Consumption Unit = cubic kilometer of oil: ¼ CMO Hans Rolfing

12. Σ Projected Energy Demand by 2050Energy needed to support the world’s 5.5% GDP growth rate 270 CMO 3.0 CMO/yr today9.0 CMO/yr in 2050? 214 CMO 163 CMO 179 CMO Variable profile

13. Reserves Depend on Technology and PriceAdditional resources become viable at higher prices

14. How Much Oil, Gas, and Coal Do We Have Left?We have plenty of fossil fuels, but mostly in unconventional sources Oil Gas Coal Reserves 46 42 66 AdditionalResource 94 AdditionalResource • 120 • Reserves • 1500 • Additional Resource • 400Unconventional • Tar sands, oil shales • 5,000 • Unconventional • Gas hydrates Their continued use increases atmospheric CO2 levels They will be needed while we switch to other sources

15. The Sun Offers 23,000 CMO/yrAnd we are looking for just a few CMO per year, but…

16. Questions to Consider • Does the source have CMO-scale potential to supply energy? • What infrastructure is required for large-scale CMO use? • Is it plug-and-play? • New pipelines and transmission structure? • What is its environmental footprint? • Energy return on fossil energy invested? • Competing land use issues? • Biodiversity, habitat destruction? • Can it compete with oil at $50/bbl, the cost of producing deep oil? • If not today, in the foreseeable future? • Competition for green energy comes from cheap fossil sources, not other green sources

17. Changes in Global Energy Mix Have Occurred BeforeTransitions take scores of years

18. Why So Long to Get to Scale?Many roadblocks along the way • Expansion slowed by • Inertia of the incumbent system (sheer size) • Market acceptability (cost) • Infrastructure requirements • Lack of trained personnel • NIMBY, NOPE, and BANANA* • More rapid penetration possible when aided by • Strategic importance to military • High-value products for niche markets Jimmy Margulies, The Record, New Jersey, 2006 * Not in my backyard Not on planet earth Build absolutely nothing, anywhere near anything!

19. Producing 1 CMO Per Year from Various SourcesEnormous task requiring trillions of dollars • Hydro: 200 dams • 1 every quarter for 50 years • 18 GW with 50% availability (3 Gorges Dam) • Nuclear: 2,500 plants • 1 a week for 50 years • 900 MW with 90% av. • Solar CSP: 7,700 solar parks • 3 a week for 50 years • 900 MW with 25% av. • Windmills: 3 million • 1200 a week for 50 years • 1.65 MW with 35% av. • Solar Roofs: 4.2 billion • 250k roofs a day for 50 years • 2.1 kW with 20% av.

20. Efficiency and ConservationLow-hanging fruit • Efficiency: Using less energy to do what we do • Easiest and most economical path • Does not go all the way • Historically, we end up increasing total consumption! • Conservation: Avoid what we need not do • Tough to change lifestyles • Switch to high-density urban living and mass transit anyone? Vegetarian diet? • Can have a substantial impact 1 CMO ≅ 100 billion CFLs!

21. What About Greenhouse Gas Emissions? • Differentiated response • Societies at different stages of development will make different choices • Focus on items that can make the most impact • Minimize natural gas emissions • Replace wood burning with natural gas or LPG: it improves quality of life and reduces GHG emissions • Fewer “Black Carbon” emissions, and • Maintains natural forests • Reduce red-meat from diet • Improve efficiency of fertilizer use: its a two-fer • Cuts energy use in fertilizer production • Reduces water pollution and subsequent NOx emissions • Focus on gallons consumed; not miles per gallon • Promote mass-transit and car-pooling

22. What Is the Path Forward?Innovation is needed on all fronts to meet future energy demand • Reducing demand from 9 to 6 CMO will be a major international effort requiring new technologies • Our planning cycle needs to • Last for 40 years not four • Transcend the prevailing price of oil • We need a family of innovations • Short term: efficiency, conservation, CSP, nuclear, public education • Intermediate term: Unconventional hydrocarbons, new engines, biofuels, electrify transportation • Long term: Thin-film PV, nuclear fusion,??? • “AND” is the operative conjunction • To make an impact, we need all technology options: • Efficiency AND conservation, AND nuclear AND solar AND wind AND…

23. Plant a TreeUrgent because we are late The great French marshal Lyautey once asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected that the tree was slow growing and would not reach maturity for 100 years. The marshal replied, “In that case, there is no time to lose; plant it this afternoon!”

24. Thank You Don’t waste Be informed Get involved cmo-ripu.blogspot.com

25. Nuclear PowerAn option we cannot ignore • Opportunity • Established scalable technology • Low footprint • Ample reserves • Risks • Fears • Radiation Exposure • Explosions • Political Challenges • Nuclear proliferation • Terrorism • Technical • Long-term storage • Cost (in part fed by fears) • Nuclear fusion, if realized, would ameliorate these risks

26. Direct SolarStorage systems are needed • Cost • PV about 35 cents/kWh • Concentrating Solar Power competitively priced • Intermittency • Reduces availability to 20% • Need > 4 times the installed capacity • Location • Solar homes and offices (PV): close to use, but not enough • Utility scale systems: remote from population centers • Electricity transmission limited to < 1000 km

27. Wind PowerRuns up against NIMBY • Pluses • Huge potential: several CMO per year • Relatively low cost • Minuses • Intermittent: 25-30% availability; needs gas backup and/or storage • Dilute: 8-10 MW/sq. mile • Whose land? Habitat? • Often remote from energy consuming centers

28. BiomassThe only renewable that produces storable fuel • Lots of hope and hype • Global potential: 0.5 to 2 CMO • May not reduce greenhouse gases • Some options release more greenhouse gases than direct use of fossil fuels • Can strain water supplies • Can disrupt food supply and result in undesirable land-use practices

29. Residential and Commercial BuildingsLow-cost options abound • Consumes about 51% of primary energy • 39% in operations: HVAC, lighting, appliances • 12% in materials: steel, concrete, glass, sheetrock • Energy saving practices can pay off • Better insulation, efficient lighting, efficient heating • Smart grid • Allows for added savings and increased use of wind and solar sources • Green construction materials Commercial Residential

30. The Cost ChallengeMeeting the Chindia Price • Opportunity in developed countries • Over $500 billion in renovations in the US • Impact of adopting green practices is ~0.1 CMO/yr • Bigger opportunity in developing nations • New construction equivalent to the entire US is projected for China/India over the next 10 years • Several trillion dollars • Potential impact of adopting green practices • Ca. 2 CMO/yr • Cost of using green materials in construction is prohibitive CHINDIA • Major innovations needed to produce cost effective solutions