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The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO

The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO. Edward Berry, NOAA/NWS DDC and Klaus Weickmann, NOAA/ESRL PSD. NOAA 33 rd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Predictability Workshop Lincoln, Nebraska October 20 th , 2008. Venice, Iowa (was Cedar Rapids). OUTLINE.

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The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO

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  1. The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO Edward Berry, NOAA/NWS DDC and Klaus Weickmann, NOAA/ESRL PSD NOAA 33rd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Predictability Workshop Lincoln, Nebraska October 20th, 2008 Venice, Iowa (was Cedar Rapids)

  2. OUTLINE The Global Wind Oscillation: Introduction Schematic GWO/MJO phase spaces ENSO precipitation signals for 1993 and 2008 GWO/MJO phase spaces during 1993 and 2008 May 22-26 case study: SNR 250 hPa PSI composites and potential predictability Summary

  3. Purpose is to examine the interannual-subseasonal relationships of the global atmospheric circulation that may have contributed to the “great floods.”

  4. L L H H L L • Want: • > 1 region • monopole The Global Wind “Oscillation”

  5. Models Struggle

  6. Models Struggle

  7. 2008 1993 La-Nina El-Nino

  8. GWO 1993 GWO 2008 El-Nino El-Nino Weak subseasonal variations. Large subseasonal variations June May July June La-Nina La-Nina

  9. MJO 1993 MJO 2008 Weak subseasonal variations Large subseasonal variations May June July June

  10. Case Study Severe Local Storms/Heavy Rainfall May 22-26

  11. MJO GWO H H L L L H H H L L H L L H H H Centered on 15 May

  12. H H L L H H

  13. WK-2 CPC WK-2 GEFS WK-2: May 23-29 See May 10th and 15th blog postings for details WK-2 500mb Zt OBS WK-2 500mb Za OBS

  14. May 23-29 Air Temperature Anomaly Forecasts CPC OBS

  15. Summary Jun-Jul 1993 mean anomalies imply “flood”; May-Jun 2008 anomalies do not => suggests larger subseasonal role in 2008 “Synoptics” of these spring-summer central USA floods may be similar when ENSO decays rapidly and during a large subseasonal oscillation Real-time monitoring utilizing SNR composites for both the GWO and MJO offered ~week-2 forecast opportunities at times when operational model predictions failed 250 hPa PSI SNR for tropics ~0.6-0.8σ versus ~0.2-0.3σ across the extratropics for both MJO and GWO => weak but useful signals

  16. Questions ?

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