Research priorities for HELCOM monitoring and assessment purposes

1. Research priorities for HELCOM monitoring and assessment purposes Juha-Markku Leppänen, HELCOM (presented by Timo Vihma, FIMR)

2. Helsinki Convention • 1974, 1992 The aim of the Helsinki Convention is, inter alia, • to protect the Baltic Sea (water, seabed, biota) from any kind of pollution: • land-based sources • airborne • marine transport, including dumping • seabed and subsoil exploitation and • to restore the ecosystem into a balance; • to conserve natural habitats and biological diversity and to protect ecological processes.

3. Helsinki Commission(HELCOM) • Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission • Governing body of the Convention • Secretariat in Helsinki

4. STRUCTURE OF HELCOM CONTRACTING PARTIES Denmark, Estonia, European Community, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Sweden HEADS OF DELEGATION HELCOM RESPONSE HELCOM LAND HELCOM MONAS HELCOM HABITAT HELCOM MARITIME Ad hoc groups and projects Seminars, symposia, informal expert meetings

5. Priorities of HELCOM Monitoring and Assessment Group MONAS • To produce assessments, which cover • nutrients, • hazardous and radioactive substances, • various components of the marine environment (hydrography, chemistry, biology). • To develop procedures to accelerate publication of assessments • operationally produce annual indicator reports, thematic reports and periodic assessment with a frequency of ca. 10 years. • To coordinate, update and develop monitoring programmes according to • assessment requirements, • scientific knowledge in the Contracting Parties. • To promote and develop the application of new and effective methods for monitoring and assessment. • To identify gaps in knowledge and promote corresponding scientific research.

6. Some questions to be answered • What is the state of the Baltic Sea marine environment today • Future prospects for the Baltic Sea marine environment • Which are the most severe problems • Origin of the pollution • Natural background forcing vs. anthropogenic effects • Effects of hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea environment • Effects of nutrients in the Baltic Sea environment • Monitoring, prediction and regulation of excessive algal blooms • Contaminants in Baltic Sea fish • How to manage fish stocks sustainably • Threats to biodiversity – endangered species – alien species • State of the populations of seals and harbour porpoises • Effects of an oil accident – combating tools • How will the Baltic Sea ecosystem be influenced by the increasing maritime transport • Possible new upcoming threats for the Baltic Sea and how can we detect them

7. Need for Improvements in Monitoring and Assesment • The present monitoring program and time series should be guaranteed in the future, including “background information”. • Despite the varying scientific priorities of the responsible institutes, CPs should keep their commitments in supporting the joint program. • Monitoring and assessment should be a regular and integrated process including regular data flow form measurements and QA procedures to assessments. • Numeric models, automatic sampling and recording systems including satellite imagery should be developed and implemented more effectively. • Assessment work should be made interesting for the scientists. • The workload should be divided in a more effective way. • A fully functioning database as well as effective and continuous data exchange is a prerequisite for the effective assessment work. • Socio-economic driving forces should be included.

8. Assessment products • Indicator Fact Sheets • Thematic Reports • varying themes • special events • Comprehensive scientific background assessments

9. Indicator Fact Sheets • Communication is the main function of indicators. • Provide information that is considered to be critical in mitigating environmental problems. • Possible actions by decision-makers (weather consumers or high level policy makers) could be based on this information. Indicator • simplifies complex reality • distils information derived from monitoring or observation data • Raw data or statistics do not make an indicator without analysis and synthesis.

10. Thematic Reports • Covers a one current theme • Prepared by experts • Published in HELCOM Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings after the approval by the Commission Holistic Assessments • Covers the whole DPSIR chain

11. HELCOM Research needs • Continuously updated information on physical, chemical, and biological oceanography, linked to living marine resources and environmental quality; • Studies on biology and ecology of all living marine resources, including topics such as taxonomy, genetics, behaviour and migration, trophic relationships, distribution, abundance, and population dynamics; • Marine biodiversity and habitats, effects of contaminants on marine living resources, scientific aspects of introduction of non-indigenous species;

12. Development of scientifically sound indicators, especially aggregated indicators with reference and target values/levels showing the good ecological status; • Development of additional assessment tools, such as statistical methods; • Scenarios for the future of the Baltic Sea (short-term and long-term)

13. Proposal for collaboration between HELCOM and BALTEXJuha-Markku Leppänen, Mikko Alestalo and Timo Vihma Assessment of impacts of climate change on the Baltic Sea • comparable to IPCC Assessment Reports and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). • collaboration includes research and writing of the assessment report Topics: • review on the observed relation between the regional climate and the state of the marine environment in the Baltic Sea • strategy for joint monitoring of this relation in the future • regional climate change scenarios

14. Impacts: • predicted sea level change  effects on the coastal environment • predicted changes in evaporation, precipitation, and river run-off  changes in salinity  effects on the marine biota and chemistry • predicted changes in river discharge of nutrients and sediments  effects on the marine environment • predicted changes in air-sea exchange of heat, moisture and momentum •  effects on air-sea-ice exchange of chemical compounds and micro-organisms • predicted changes in the ice cover  effects on air-sea-ice exchange, ice biota and early-season algal growth • predicted changes in wind and wave conditions  effects on marine environment Time schedule • assessment ready by the end of 2006 Funding • HELCOMwill help in finding funding for a Project Manager for 3 months per year • Other possibilities: • Ministries of Envorinment in the HELCOM member states (as in ACIA) • collaboration of national funding agencies, such as BONUS • research frameworks of the EC (not much hope with the proposed time schedule) • other funding instruments of the EC