Assessing Consequences

1. Campaign Goal 2a Risk Technology Workshops Assessing Consequences

2. Adverse Consequences • Sources of adverse outcomes of a uncertain event or sequence of events • Economic • Direct--NED (traditional benefit-cost values) • Indirect--RED (impacts of event on regional and national economy, e.g., income, employment, competitiveness) • Human health and safety • Environment • Social, cultural, historical

3. Adverse Consequences (cont.) • Failure to meet scheduled completion • Disappointed sponsor • Foregone benefits • Increased cost • Failure to realize outcomes as intended • The “as planned” outcome is not realized • Economic benefits • Environment outputs • Cost overruns • 902 bust--reauthorization

4. Opportunities for Gains • Examples • Economic benefits realized • Economic costs avoided • Acres of wetlands restored • Lives saved

5. Consequences • Predictive models useful to quantify but not always necessary • Models problematic for some consequences • Human health and safety • Social and cultural • Models and evaluation approaches frequently used to estimate adverse consequences for hazards and potential for gains.

6. Economic Analysis • Need to predict economic consequences part of risk • Requirements, approach, and models depend on project purposes • NED benefits from an Federal investment arise from • Reduction in costs • Increases in output

7. FDR Economic Models • Flood Damage Reduction • HEC-FDA – engineering-economic model • Estimates stage-damage • Inventory of damageable property • Relationships describing water damage susceptibility • Incorporates limited risk of levee failure

8. FDR Economic Data • Data requirements similar to feasibility study • Property inventory • Value • First floor elevation • Location • Occupancy type • Include infrastructure and vehicles • Depth-damage by occupancy type • Uncertainty

9. Orleans Metro 5: Elevation - Flood Damage (mean values)

10. Sometimes Ignored Direct Economic Consequence • Infrastructure • Roads, Pavements & Bridges $1.05 to $1.58 bil. • Railroad Line Access $45 to $60 mil. • Airport Facilities $65 to $73 mil. • Electrical Distribution & Transmission Grid $1.1 to $1.4 bil. • Gas Distribution $490 to $515 mil. • Drainage, Sewage, & Potable Water Services $510 to $620 mil. • Telecommunications Networks $340 to $380 mil. • Public Transit Vehicles and Equipment $690 to $760 mil. • Waterborne Navigation $140 to $170 mil. Total $4.4 to 5.6 Billion

11. Inland Navigation Economic Models • Inland Navigation • WAM, TC/EQ, NavSym, LCLM, LockSym, ORNIM, NaSS (indevelopment) • Estimate NED values of improvements • Some explicitly incorporate multiple outage type probabilities • Repair cost and time • Some consider locks in system • Problem of shipper response to unplanned outage • Wait in queue, delay, divert, change mode • Each has its own cost

12. Inland Navigation Economic Data • Data requirements similar to feasibility study • Traffic • Commodities • Types of vessels • Transportation cost savings • Frequency of traffic • Unplanned outage probability • Repair time • Repair cost • Post repair unplanned outage probability • Pre and post repair O&M • Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage

13. Coastal Navigation Economic Models • Coastal Navigation • Risk issues typically channel dimensions related to sedimentation and navigation structures • Jetties and breakwaters • HarborSym-traffic model • No explicit channel dimension reliability • Individual application spreadsheets

14. Coastal Navigation Economic Data • Data requirements similar to feasibility study • Traffic • Commodities • Types of vessels • Transportation cost savings • Frequency of traffic • Channel dimensions probability • Structure failure • Dredging time • Dredging cost • Post repair unplanned outage probability • Pre and post repair O&M • Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage

15. Hydropower Economic Models • Hydropower • Hydro-Repair • NWP model • Estimate costs of unplanned outages and benefits of major rehabilitation in life-cycle framework

16. Hydropower Economic Data • Data requirements similar to feasibility study • Energy value • Capacity value • Existing and future unplanned outage probability • Repair cost and time • Post repair unplanned outage probability • Pre and post repair O&M • Rehabilitation costs • Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage

17. Other Economic Consequence Categories • Recreation • M&I Water supply • Agricultural water supply

18. Take Away on Quantifying NED Economic Consequences • Many models exist • Theory well developed • Some models have capability to include uncertainty in variable and parameters • Allows quantifying uncertainty in outcomes

19. Indirect Economic Consequences • Objective • Estimate local/regional economic impacts of adverse consequences from a multi-regional national economic and demographic model accounting for: • Disruptions to lives and livelihoods • Inherent resiliencies in economy • Examine changes in structure of regional economy from pre-event levels • Time paths of recovery • Location decisions by households and businesses

20. Example of Indirect Economic Consequences from Katrina • Approach • Summary statistics examine general market outcomes • Population recovery • Capital formation • Labor market recovery Katrina

21. Example from Katrina:Forecast for New Orleans 5-parish region: Employment (1,000’s) Katrina

23. Health and Safety Consequences Human Health • Describe full range of specific exposures to source of risk • Describe potential physical & mental health effects • Describe other health effects that can be expected in near or longer term based on empirical studies

24. Potential Loss of Life • Need predictive modeling of LOL • Used extensively in dam safety evaluations • Corps is modeling for dam and levee safety programs • Model in development • LIFESim--a spatially distributed, dynamic simulation model with resolution of population at census block level

25. USACE Life Loss Estimation Methods • Dam Specific • Modified USBR Method • Screening - Minimal resource requirement • HEC-FIA • Screening validation, issue evaluation and periodic assessments - Moderate resource requirement • LifeSim • Support modification studies – Large resource requirement • Levee Specific • Simplified Jonkman’s Method • Screening - Minimal resource requirement Scalable methods – effort from one applicable to more rigorous method

26. Life Loss Estimation – Basic Approach • Initial distribution of people • Redistribution of people • Warning and response • Evacuation potential • Shelter provided by final location • Flood characteristics • Arrival time, depth, velocity, rate-of-rise

27. Example Results from Katrina: Stage-Potential Fatalities (Mean & 90% CI) for St. Bernard Parish Sub-basin 1

28. Environmental Consequences • Predict adverse or beneficial consequences to ecological resources • Focus on ecological resource condition as indicators of environmental condition and consequences • Riparian habitats • Fisheries • Wildlife • Pest species • Special status species—threatened and endangered

29. 1.4 mg/kg CONTAMINANTS MODEL RESULTS FOR LEAD IN SEDIMENTS MAXIMUM LEAD CONCENTRATIONS ADDED TO SEDIMENTS BY BASELINE WATER PUMPING SEDIMENT MEAN Pre-Katrina=17.5 mg/kg Post katrina=25.3mg/kg 7.0 mg/kg MAXIMUM LEAD CONCENTRATIONS ADDED TO SEDIMENTS BY ACTUAL WATER PUMPING

30. Restoration Failure

31. Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences • Prediction of adverse consequence difficult • Data • Demographic Data • Qualitative Data • Timeframes • Immediately Before Event • Short-term • Long-term • Scope • Locally • Direct impact • Regionally • Surrounding area • Nationally for large events

32. Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences Methodology • Units of Analysis • Neighborhoods • Communities • Social Institutions (schools, health care) • Data • Existing Sources • Observational Data to Support short-term and long-term estimates

33. Example from Katrina: Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences Population Estimates