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Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment ( VTRA)*

Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment ( VTRA)*. Todd Hass, PhD Program Manager: Marine and Nearshore Special Projects Puget Sound Partnership

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Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment ( VTRA)*

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  1. Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment (VTRA)* Todd Hass, PhD Program Manager: Marine and Nearshore Special Projects Puget Sound Partnership *Updated from presentation with Chad Bowechop/Makah at BC Ministry of the Environment: “Land Based Spill Preparedness and Response Symposium” - March 2013

  2. Outline: • PSP – role • Background & funding • Collaboration • VTRA model • VTRA status & next steps

  3. About PSP The Puget Sound Partnership has legislative mandate to recover the health of Puget Sound by 2020 • Also: “independently assess and advise Washington State’s oil spill programs” • Consensus from PSP Oil Spill Work Group to use maritime risk assessments and develop/apply risk reduction measures (NTA C8.1.2)

  4. VTRA Background… Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee (HSC) expert mariners contributed judgment for the ~$1M BP-Cherry Point VTRA study completed by GWU et al. in 2008…study released and presented to HSC in April 2012 Makah Tribal Councilretained GWU via late-summer grant to researchers; updating the VTRA baseline traffic scenario from 2005 to 2010 and extending offshore

  5. Funding for VTRA… • US Environmental Protection Agency • Approved Makah Tribe’s proposal to update with 2010 VTOSS data (US/Canada VTS) • $200K to PSP to advance risk assessment and update VTRA

  6. VTRA Steering Committee formed in fall 2012 • Integrating State and Federal regulatory agencies, Tribes, Industries and Stakeholders into a VTRA update process • Agreed that GWU VTRA is common language by which region evaluates relative maritime traffic risk systemwide • Intangible “social license” via legitimacy, credibility & trust

  7. Others involved… PSP and PSHSCco-chair the Steering Committee USCG, Ecology and Makahare the government leads, guiding the update process

  8. About the model: (1) Collaborativevsadversarial analysis in environmental policy (Busenberg 1999) • Adversarial (debate) approach led to “distorted communication” and stalemate • Collaborative approach gave all stakeholders oversight of joint research team—promoting mutually credible results and resolution

  9. About the model: (2) Past VTRA (van Dorp and Merrick 2009) quantified contribution of different interventions on reducing spill risk (oil outflow) Risk reduction measures Tug escort = 61.7% Double hull = 23.6% 1-way zone = 6.3%

  10. VTRA “2010” – Status • Makah phase ended: final report/analysis issued • PSP phase 1: modeling 3* “What if?” scenarios • VTRA simulating projected traffic from the following potential projects: • Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (Kinder Morgan) in B.C. • SSA Marine Gateway Pacific Terminal near Cherry Point, WA • Delta Port, Neptune, etc. expansion in Port Metro Vancouver, B.C.

  11. VTRA 2010 Past (winter/spring): • Researchers expanded classes of Focus Vessels, now includes cargo and bulk carriers (overall: FV=25%, nonFV=75% of exposure time) • 10Ks of actual routes/segments and VTOSS data scrubbed • VTRA SC obtained/shared the best available data projections on “What If” projects to be simulated

  12. VTRA 2010 DRAFT DRAFT Present (summer): • Researchers simulated “What If” changes in traffic (+>1500 trips/year) & noted changes in potential ship interactions • VTRA SC proposed mitigation measures to be simulated in model • Researchers produced draft report (Stage 1) reviewed by VTRA SC

  13. VTRA 2010 Future (winter): • Report/results used in revised Risk Management Strategy for Puget Sound • (Voluntary) changes to Harbor Safety Plan, SOCs, BMPs, etc. • Regulatory changes considered by USCG, WA-Ecology • Northwest Area Committee and its “2013-Emerging Risks Task Force” apply findings to contingency planning, GRPs, etc.

  14. More info: • todd.hass@psp.wa.gov; (360) 280 1588 • http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/tab4/publications_VTRA_Update.html

  15. Incident Data Expert Judgment Oil Outflow Model Maritime Simulation RISK MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS One-Way Zone Escort Requirements Double Hull Requirement Situations Oil Spill Incidents Accidents Kaplan’s (1997) Risk Definition About the model: (2) continued… Risk Management of a Causal Chain

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