Known Unknowns: The Problem with GMO Research U. Minnesota 29 Sept 2011

1. Known Unknowns: The Problem with GMO ResearchU. Minnesota 29 Sept 2011 Glenn Davis Stone Anthropology and Environmental Studies Washington University

2. India Research 2000-2010 funded by: NSF Grant 0314404 NSF Grant 0078396Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthro. ResearchWashington University

3. Bt Cotton in India • Larger context of one crop’s yields • Why we haven’t been able to measure it • Still 2 well established (if wildly contradictory) narratives • This case tells us less about the performance of a specific technology than about how we create and authenticate narratives about technology

4. Global GMO debates US: cotton, soy, maize US: FlavrSavr tomato Europe: soy collapse of Euro markets GM plants 3W framing recombinant bacteria

5. Spring 2000: Council for Biotech Info Focus: “Small Scale Third World” farmers

7. NY Times, Dec 2000 Time, July 2000

10. Farm size of all soy planters (no data on GM planters) • overall 72 ha. • 501 ha in Mid-West where most soy expansion • (R. Zanon & M. Saes 2010, “Soybean Production in Brazil: Main Determinants of Property Sizes”, IGBE)

11. Farm size of HT soy planters • overall 496 ha. • early adopters 1,084 ha; late adopters 316 ha • (Qaim & Traxler 2005 Agric. Econ. 32:73–86; • Finger et al. 2009 AgBioForum, 12[3&4], 404-411)

12. 3W Smallholders Planting GM Crops

13. Opportunities Challenges • Largest cotton acreage • 17 million cotton farmers • Lepidopteran crisis • Scientific establishment & biosafety regulation • Hybrid seeds • Strong NGO sector • Free & vigorous press • Monsanto reputation • Complex agro-entomology

15. 1998 Suicide Crisis, Warangal (Andhra Pradesh) Family after father committed suicide by drinking pesticide

17. Bt cotton approved 2002; rapid adoption 2005-2008

18. Narrative : Failure and Disastercausing widespread farmer suicide

20. Narrative : Remarkable Successfastest adopted farm technology in history “On average, Bt-adopting farmers realize pesticide reductions of roughly 40%, and yield advantages of 30–40%” (Sadashivappa & Qaim, 2009:172).

21. Ongoing Contestationscontinued focus on field-level findings The write up was re-print of a story from the Times of India, Nagpur edition, October 31, 2008 and it was being published under the TOI’s “Consumer Connect Initiative”, a benevolent nomenclature given to paid news… “The trip to Yavatmal was arranged by Mahyco Monsanto Biotech”…

22. Sub-Door to Door survey Bhamraja and Antargaon of Bt,cotton farmers in order to counter False advertising campaign by Mahyco Monsanto Biotech . This sudden spate of fraudulent advertisements is because the Biotechnology Regulatory Authority of India (BRAI) Bill is shortly coming up in Parliament. There is deliberate intent  here of Monsanto to mislead members of Parliament into favouring its utterly dishonest claims about Bt cotton.  Mahyco Monsanto has been on this offensive for sometime now, with various … Hence very serious survey of these villages is must hence we have decided to do door to door survey of these villages to expose and we will do it in this week • Data collection details • Farmer’s details family member details and income source and land holding, irrigation facility and crop pattern followed for last six year. • The changes in income pattern, cultivation cost, use of pesticide, expenses on public health.net cotton production and income growth. • Water level in last six year and data on water consumption for cotton cultivation…

23. Anti-GMO Empirics Dec. 2002 meeting & farmer open mike by Deccan Development Society

24. Failure Narrative and the Reciprocal Authenticity Dynamic • [collusion between international and local NGO’s] prevent confrontation • with empirical findings … and simultaneously reinforce diffusion of a consistent narrative to the international advocacy network. GM Watch [UK-based anti-GM group] learns that there are GMO catastrophes in India from the Deccan Development Society. These networks of course have deep interests in promulgating their findings to journalists so as to broaden communication. Through these flows, a reciprocal authenticity dynamic develops: ex-colonial powers and their press authenticate global narratives for local networks; local reports legitimated by indigeneity provide confirmation for global narratives. • Herring, R. (2009) Persistent narratives: Why is the "failure of Bt cotton in India" story still with us? AgBioForum 12(1):14-22. • But GMO critics do collect data and publish empirical findings (albeit with credibility problems) • And empirical findings authenticated through conventional channels have their own credibility problems…

25. Success Narrative and the Scientific Expertise Dynamic 2003 Science 299:900-902

26. Success Narrative and the Scientific Expertise Dynamic • Field studies yield contradictory results from contested data. To investigate explanations for this phenomenon, a team of social and natural scientists* visited Warangal district in December of 2006. Team composition was intentionally broad and consequential: we had linguistic competence… we had expertise in molecular biology, plant genetics, agronomics, political economy, rural administration and regulation. All these strands of expertise turned out to be useful. • Kameswara Rao, S. Shantharam, Ronald Herring • Herring, R. 2008 Whose numbers count? Probing discrepant evidence on transgenic cotton in the Warangal district of India. Int Journal of Multiple Research Approaches 2:145–159.

27. Conventional Scientific Empiricseven at face value: highly variable • Smaleet al. 2006 : • Overall India balance sheet “promising “ but “mixed,” “inconclusive” • Yield advantages vary by hybrid and by region and by year • Smale M, Zambrano P, Cartel M. 2006. Bales and balance: a review of the methods used to assess the economic impact of Bt cotton on farmers in developing economies. AgBioForum 9:195–212. • Tripp 2009 : • highly variable yield advantage • Transgenic cotton: Assessing economic performance in the field, in Biotech-nology and agricultural development Maharashtra: where studies show a “complex, confusing picture of farmers’ spraying behaviour and a startling degree of variability in their cotton output” (Bennett et al. 2006; Glover, 2009:16).

28. Beyond Face Valueserious problems with the counterfactual Selection Bias Cultivation Bias Early Effects Bias

29. Selection Bias • Hybrid adopters in Iowa: • More formal education • Higher income • Larger farms • More cosmopolitan • Maize adopters in Turkey: • Higher educational level • Higher income • Larger farm size • More travels to nearest town • Greater use of extension personnel • More mechanization level • More credit use • Higher agricultural investments • Boz & Akbay 2005 Factors influencing the adoption of maize in Kah. province of Turkey. Agric Econ 33:431-440. • Precision farming adopters in U.S.: • Higher income • Larger farms • Higher expected yields • Daberkow & McBride 1998 Socio-economic profiles of early adopters of precision agriculture technologies. J. of Agribusiness 16(2):151-168.

30. Selection Bias in Bt Adoption in India • 2002-5 studies focus on early Bt adopters: • Own 58% more land (Morse et al. 2007) • Own 36% more land (Sadash. & Qaim 2009) • More educated, diversified (Lalitha et al. 2009) • Produce 29-43% more on non-Bt fields (Morse et al. 2007) Non-Bt only Growing both Mohan Reddy, wealthy farmer and early Bt adopter in Saireddipally, Warangal, AP Bt 29-43% higher yield

31. i.e., None Data from Monsanto-Mahyco probably None Dev & Rao 2007 2004-5 None

32. Cultivation Bias 1st Bt adopters in Perkevedu village, Warangal Dist. Bt seeds initially Rs 1600 (cf. conventional Rs 400) Anecdotally: Bt seeds on best soils Bt seeds get better water Bt seeds get added attention & labor

33. Early Effects Bias

34. Percentages of proprietary hirsutum hybrid cotton seeds

35. Rapid Adoption of Insecticides & Proprietary Hybrid Seeds

36. Sucking pests (Hemiptera) Caterpillars (Lepidoptera) domalu purugu

37. Cotton aphids 99% sample farms sprayed for sucking pests at least once in 2007 Similar problems now in China with mirids; “secondary pests have completely eroded all benefits from Bt cotton cultivation” (Wang et al. 2006)

38. Field-Evolved Bt Resistance

39. The India Case Helps to Authenticate Parking Lot Sciencea much-watched case of African small farmers: 2010 Bt cotton significantly increased cotton yields by an average of 18.2% over conventional cotton reduction in insecticide costs over conventional cotton Bt cotton producers earned a profit of $39.00 per ha, a $61.88 per ha increase in cotton income over conventional cotton

40. Characteristics of households … but no data on adopters vs. non-adopters Measurements of yield advantages over conventional … but who were the conventional growers? So what was the counterfactual? Why didn’t they explain it? Do journals now accept comparisons to unnamed counterfactuals?

41. - senior author, July 2011

42. working example of how African countries can enhance sustainability using modern, science-driven technology to increase production levels while reducing input use and energy consumption.

43. Can Its Impact Be Measured? well it can be measured better… • Reducing (not eliminating) problems in selection, cultivation and early effects bias • Stone, G. D. 2011 Field versus Farm in Warangal: Bt Cotton, Higher Yields, and Larger Questions. World Development 39(3):387-398.

44. Gudeppad Indigenous population, range of castes Black cotton soils common High commitment to cotton (59% in 2003) Saireddipally Immigrant Andhras, mostly Kamma Prosperous, high education & info connectivity Kalleda Indigenous population, range of castes Black cotton soils rare Low commitment to cotton (16% in 2003) Ravuru Largely tribal population Poor, low education & info connectivity

45. Panel Study 2003 - 2007 • Village populations stratified on land ownership (as index of wealth), sampled randomly • Interview design, checking and collection done in collaboration with agricultural economist A. Sudarshan Reddy, Ctr. for Env. Studies • 2003: only 5 of 243 cotton seed purchases by 144 hholds were Bt (excluded) • 2007: virtually all Bt • Avoids selection & cultivation biases • Possibly confounded by different conditions in 2003-2007

46. 65% farms in 4-village sample had irrigation (the synchronic studies didn’t take differences in irrigation into account at all)

47. Overall modest advantage but… • Highly variable yield advantage • Greatest in poorest villages • How meaningful is the 18% average when yield advantage ranged from -10% to +60%?

48. Consistent sharp decline • But rising problems with flies

49. Known Unknowns • Performance of Bt cotton in India was and is a headline issue • Impact was very hard to isolate among other factors, and we never did it well • Can’t do it now: non-Bt cotton seeds too rare for useful comparisons • Moreover Bt seeds changing too quickly for meaningful analyses (by scientists or farmers) • (But field peformance has been overrated anyway; “farm level” more important than “field level”) • But this case can teach us much about the processes by which we create and authenticate narratives

50. thank you