Design Criteria for a National Climate Service: Insights from a RISA Program

1. Design Criteria for a National Climate Service: Insights from a RISA Program Edward L. Miles, Amy K. Snover, and Lara Whitely Binder Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System JISAO, University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195

2. Outline • Why a National Climate Service (NCS)? • What is a NCS? • What functions should it perform? • What services should it provide? • What performance metrics are to be employed? • How should it be designed? • The Climate Impacts Group’s experience as a prototype of a regional NCS office All questions answered from perspective of a RISA program of the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) with 10 years experience.

3. Why a National Climate Service? Why a climate service? • Growing awareness within research and resource management communities that climate variability and climate change are affecting natural and socioeconomic systems. These impacts vary from region to region given variations in climate patterns and natural/socioeconomic systems • Recognized need (and demand) for spatially-relevant research on climate and climate impacts. Demand for this information evidenced by (and due in part to) RISA work across the U.S. • Need for reliable and responsive technical support for the resource management community (if we are going to get broader use of forecasts)

4. Why a National Climate Service? Why a climate service at the national scale? • Climate information is a public good (very important information for public natural resource management) • Need for a global observations network • Need to connect: • nationally/internationally organized climate variability and change research communities to place-based translation and delivery of climate information • basic and applied research on climate and climate impacts to operational entities

5. Why a National Climate Service? (cont’d) • Experience shows that climate forecasts alone (delta T, delta p) are only utilized by the very technically advanced *unless* forecasts are expressed in terms of impacts on resources • Also important to provide information about the linkages between climate variability and variations in natural resources • Every empirical study has shown that climate forecasts aren’t used to their full potential. Reasons include: • Lack of skill (can be interpreted as lack of transparency in tracking skill on part of forecast provider); • Deeply embedded and widespread preference for deterministic forecasts and discomfort with probabilistic forecasts (except in the case of climate change projections); • Demands for finer spatial resolution, i.e., down to watershed scale. (see Chagnon, Chagnon, and Chagnon, 1995 ; Pulwarty and Redmond, 1997; Callahan, Miles, and Fluharty, 1999; and Rayner, Lach, and Ingram, 2004, inter alia)

6. A national climate service is not a weather service and the forecast is not “…the thing wherewith we catch the attention of the king”. [with apologies to Shakespeare.]

7. What is a National Climate Service? • A national climate service (NCS) integrates • climate observations, • research on climate dynamics and impacts, • outreach/decision support at a global and regional scale to produce and deliver information on climate variability and change that is useful to decision-makers. • Stakeholders thought of as a continuously involved constituency. • Research should represent a balance between what stakeholders need for managing resources and what experts see as necessary for developing deeper understanding of the coupled climate/resource system.

8. What Functions Should a NCS Perform? • Organize and maintain an adequate observational system • To track climate dynamics/impacts at national/regional scales. • Data sets produced with buy-in from stakeholders; would facilitate co-production of knowledge in provision of services. • Perform basic & applied research on climate dynamics and impacts, with a focus on: • Understanding and explaining interactions among climate, society, and natural resources; • Identifying important climate-related vulnerabilities, opportunities; • Furthering the development of climate forecasts and regional scale climate-based resource forecasts.

9. What Functions…?, cont’d. • Transition new products to NCS member agencies • Including scenarios, climate and resource forecasts, decision tools, planning resources. • Products developed by regional research teams through collaborations with research team, agencies, and other stakeholders • Design and maintain an operational delivery system • Research teams transition new products to NCS agency members (e.g., NRCS) who decide whether to deliver the product themselves or transition it to the private sector. • Develop and maintain a continuing dialogue among research teams, member agencies, and stakeholders • Focus on development, translation and delivery of information that users can use for planning and decision-making.

10. What Services Should a NCS Provide? • Clearinghouse and technical access point • for regionally-relevant information on climate, climate impacts, and adaptation • Development of systematic data bases • with information relevant to specific regional needs. • Education • on climate impacts and use of climate information in decision-making (e.g., via meetings and workshops) • Decision-support tools • facilitating use of climate information in near-term operations and long-term planning

11. What Services cont’d • User access to climate and impacts experts • for technical assistance in use of climate information • to inform climate forecast community of their information needs • Researcher access to users • to help guide research direction • Represent regional climate needs/concerns in regional and national policy arenas • facilitate regional-national communication on NCS needs and performance.

12. What Performance Metrics are to be Applied? • Degree of collaboration between: • Regional research teams and NCS member agencies • Regional research teams and observations component • NCS and regional stakeholders (users) [all NCS functions] • Relevance and quality of regional research efforts. • Relevance and quality of decision support and decision tools. • Evidence of impact on regional planning and decision-making by user communities. • Assessed via periodic detailed systematic investigations

13. How Should a National Climate Service be Designed? • Basic approach: the NOAA/CPO vision of regional components as basis for national climate service be implemented as an inter-agency partnership authorized and funded by U.S. Congress. • Approach recognizes that RISAs have demonstrated proof of concept: • RISAs have developed the capability to understand the relationship between climate and natural resource variability and to make use of such information to add value to climate forecasts. • RISAs have developed the capability to identify and evaluate adaptation strategies in response to perceived climate-based regional vulnerabilities is a matter of some urgency.

14. RISA climate Research Community CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE humans nature Regional Climate Impacts Assessment Climate impacts research is retrospective, contextual, interdisciplinary & integrated. Resource Mgmt. Traditional research products are often not directly applicable to management decisions and decision-making environments. RISA strives to conduct and integrate research to inform “real world” choices.

15. NCS Design, cont’d. • A partnership among Depts. of Commerce (NOAA = NWS, RISAs), Agriculture (USFS, NRCS), Interior (USGS, BOR, BLM), Health and Human Services (CDC), Defense (ACOE), Homeland Security (FEMA), EPA, Housing and Urban Development • Directed by Director of NOAA/Climate Program Office (CPO) • Interagency partnership will require explicit budgetary support to facilitate research planning and operations at the regional level. Requires an act of Congress. • Interagency unit provides coordination at Federal level and operational participation at regional level. • Interagency coordination expected over time to induce greater coordination among state agencies. • At regional level, all stakeholders, public and private sectors included. • Regional working groups comprised of research teams and member agency field offices.

16. Local, state, tribal, federal resource managers Interior (USGS, BOR, BLM) Defense (ACOE) Elected officials HUD Private sector resource managers Homeland Security (FEMA) NOAA (NWS, RISA) NOAA/CPO NGOs Research community HHS (CDC) EPA General public Agriculture (USFS, NRCS) Designing a National Climate Service National Climate Service (Fed Level) Regional Climate Service Centers (RCSC) End Users USGS, BOR, BLM HUD ACOE NWS, RISA RCSC FEMA EPA CDC USFS, NRCS Regional offices could be grouped by major river basins and/or geographic areas with enough linkages to facilitate collaboration across sub-regional offices (e.g. Western States, New England States, Plains states)

17. The Climate Impacts Group: Implications for a Regional Climate Service Center 1995-2005

18. The Climate Impacts Group First of 8 U.S. regional integrated assessment teams (RISAs).

19. Key Stakeholders

20. Research CIG Decision-support Outreach How Does CIG Support Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change? Decision-support tools: Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning Research: Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities Outreach: Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community

21. CIG Decision-support Outreach Supporting Adaptation: Research Decision-support tools: Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning Research: Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities Research Outreach: Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community

22. CIG’s Approach to Integrated Research • First vertical assessment, then horizontal • 1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and uncertainty • Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and consequences of human choices and activities • Understand the institutional context of these systems, e.g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs under which human choices are made • Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.

23. CIG Contributions to Regional Climate Impacts Science • Defining the PDO • Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate and key natural resources • Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature, precipitation, and snowpack • Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow, forests, and summer sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca • Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change on PNW climate and resources • Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information and characteristics of adaptive institutions

24. Research CIG Outreach Supporting Adaptation: Decision Support Tools Decision-support tools: Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning Research: Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities Outreach: Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community Decision-support

25. CIG Contributions to Decision Support • Climate forecasts for use in resource management • Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based on ENSO/PDO • Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for Oregon coastal coho salmon • Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts • Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts • Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow scenarios • Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate change on streamflow management

26. Recent Examples of CIG’s Influence on Operations and Policy… • County government departments in King County, WA reviewing policies and procedures to include preparation for climate change as a result of October ’05 climate change conference (1/06) • Joint Corps/CIG effort to develop national guidance for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on incorporating analysis of climate change impacts into Corps projects (’05-’06) • CIG commissioned by Puget Sound Action Team (part of the WA State Governor’s Office) to prepare a report on the projected impacts of climate change on Puget Sound (released Oct ’05) • Northwest Power and Conservation Council incorporating climate change streamflow scenarios into hydrologic planning tools and major planning documents (e.g., Fifth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan) (’05) • CIG asked to participate on WA and OR advisory committees for West Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative and write a high-level briefing memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the governors’ offices (‘04)

27. Research CIG Decision-support Supporting Adaptation: Outreach Decision-support tools: Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning Research: Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities Outreach: Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community Outreach

28. Outreach • Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder relationships, and allow for feedback on research needs, products, and services. Investment in outreach should not be overlooked. Interest in using climate information comes with increased understanding of impacts and research. • Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource management. Activities include: • Workshops and meetings (4-5/year) • Presentations and briefings (75+/year) • One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds) • Work with the local media • Web site development and maintenance • Graduate-level courses on climate impacts at UW

29. Work with the Media • CSES has established an important and valuable working relationship with local and national media • Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97 • Major Seattle P-I special report on 11/13/03 • Stories in San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle P-I, Idaho Statesman, Albuquerque Journal, The Oregonian • Featured in radio, television programs (KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM), PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer)

30. A Sea Change in Perceptions Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change… 1995:Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info 1997-98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information about climate variability and in CIG Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information 2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning 2001/2:50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work  public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning  significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts 2003 to present day: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups

31. Implications for a Regional Climate Service Center • Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires: • Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications • Producing very specific, mutually defined products • Building trust with stakeholders over time • Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation

32. Conclusions • A NCS is essential for developing national capacity to understand and manage climate impacts • A NCS integrates observations, research, outreach, and operations • A NCS is most effectively achieved as a Federal interagency partnership • The regional level is most effective for integrating research and decision support with stakeholder needs • The RISAs have shown the way