DEMIFER: DEmographic and MIgratory Flows affecting European Regions and cities

1. DEMIFER: DEmographic and MIgratory Flows affecting European Regions and cities Johanna Roto and Mark ter Veer on behalf of the DEMIFER team ESPON Evidence for Regional Policy-Making Alcalá de Henares, 9 June

2. The DEMIFER project team • NIDI (co-ordinator) (The Hague, Netherlands) • Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper • UNVIE (Vienna, Austria) • Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer • IOM/CEFMR (Warsaw, Poland) • Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska • Nordregio (Stockholm, Sweden) • Daniel Rauhut, Johanna Roto, Jonathan Metzger, Lisa van Well • University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom) • Phil Rees, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett, John Stillwell • NEAA (The Hague, Netherlands) • Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer • CNR (Rome, Italy) • Frank Heins, Corrado Bonafazi, Giuseppe Gesano

3. Demographic State • Main demographic changes across Europe: • slowing of population growth • ageing • decline in the growth rate of the working-age population • migration as main driver of population growth • No one unambiguous effect of migration and demography on the competitiveness of European regions

4. Demographic State • 1/4 regions experience population decline • Migration: • not sufficient to compensate the decline in the potential labour force • May lead to an increase in regional disparities • Affects also age structures of populations and labour force resources • The size of the working-age population declined in 25% of all NUTS2 regions in 2000-2007 • In over 50 regions the working-age population increased by > 1% per year

5. Typology of the Demographic Status in 2005 • Retaining favourable trends: • 'Euro Standard' • 'Family Potentials' • Dealing with population decline: • 'Challenge of Labour Force' • 'Challenge of Decline' • Challenging disparities: • 'Challenge of Ageing' • 'Young Potentials'

6. The impact of migration on population change • Migration, both intra-Europe and especially extra-Europe, have and will have a significant impact on demographic and labour force development of regions. • Migration will be a strong factor increasing regional disparities. • Population decrease in most regions due to natural change. • Most regions gaining population do so mainly due to extra-Europe migration.

7. The impact of migration on population change • Under the Status Quo scenario the population declines by 40 million over the next 45 years. • Over 75% of the regions are gainers of migration, and in 1/4 of the regions the 2050 population size will be 30% higher. • Losers of migration mainly in EU-12 and Northern/eastern peripheries • Without changes in demographic and migratory flows, migration will worsen existing disparities

8. Future trends in the labour force • The age pattern of female labour force participation differs considerably across types of regions • Regional disparities in activity rates depend on economic developments • If the rates would not change, the size of the labour force in the ESPON area will decline by 17 % until 2050 • Only in 1/4 of the regions the labour force would increase. • In 90 % of the European regions the labour force would be smaller without extra- European migration.

9. Growth enabled by technical and social innovation Economy-Environment Growing Social Europe Expanding Market Europe Limited Social Europe Challenged Market Europe Growth limited by environmental constraints Collectivism Individualism Distribution-Fairness Four policy scenarios

10. Growth enabled by technical and social innovation Economy-Environment Growing Social Europe Expanding Market Europe Limited Social Europe Challenged Market Europe Growth limited by environmental constraints Collectivism Individualism Distribution-Fairness Aspects of policy scenarios • Fertility • Mortality • Inter-region migration • Inter-state migration • Extra-Europe migration • Labour force participation • High vs. low • Convergence vs. divergence

11. Policy scenarios • Population scenarios: important devices for thinking about alternative futures • Explore the linkages between economic and social policies and demographic and migratory developments • Policy scenario implications for: • Mortality: expected to decline but not in all regions to the same degree • Fertility: expected to increase or to be maintained at the current level -> vital to pursue family-friendly social welfare policies • Migration: constant internal migration; international migration is assumed to increase • Population ageing remains the most important demographic challenge in all scenarios • Both the old-age dependency ratios and the very old-age dependency ratios rise steadily, but slightly more in the social scenarios than in the market scenarios. The gap between the ODR and VODR is larger in the ‘successful’ scenarios (GSE and EME) than in the ‘unsuccessful’ scenarios (LSE and CME).

12. Population Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios • GSE: most likely to come true when economy-environment policies result in sustainable growth and effective cohesion policies. Large decreases in mortality, large increases in fertility. Migration levels and regional inequalities increase significantly. • EME: sustainable economic growth and strong competitive goals. Less favorable developments in mortality and fertility, large increases in migration • LSE: relatively small decreases in mortality, constant fertility patterns and declining migration levels. • CME: low economic growth, environmental challenges are not met, and strong competitive goals. Decreasing mortality and fertility, constant migration levels. Least favourable scenario

13. Labour Force Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios • The growth of the labour force does not just depend on the size of the working age population but also on the level of labour force participation rates • GSE and EME: high economic growth will lead to an increasing trend in labour force participation rates. • LSE: the poor economic and environmental developments lead to falling activity rates everywhere • CME: activity rates are falling due to a sustained economic downturn. Disparities are growing • In the future a lot of regions will be struck by a shrinking labour force. The LSE scenario sketches the most dramatic setback. Least dramatic is the setback in the EME.

14. Policy Bundles/Combinations - Migration • Immigration • May be an answer in many regions and help narrow the gap between Eastern/Southern regions and Northern/ Central Europe. But these policies must be complemented by policies to help the integration of newcomers (language, skills). • Inter-regional migration • Policies aimed at increasing mobility between European regions may reduce cohesion, not increase it. Thus policies aimed to stimulate migration are only effective as part of policy bundles to improve living condition in poor regions (jobs, housing, schools). • Extra-European migration • Immigration policies to facilitate economic migration must be coupled with successful integration policies to attract higher skilled migrants

15. Policy Bundles/Combinations - Labour markets and economy • Increasing number of persons and years on labour market • Policies aimed at increasing the age of retirement should be combined with policies stimulating healthy behaviour • Raising labour force participation results in decreasing disparities only if the labour market performs well. Thus policies to reduce gender equalities and improve work/child care balance and integration of immigrants are needed for this. • Economic growth/labour supply • Growth in labour productivity can be raised by technology, capacity building and investments in education and training, but to be effective these measures need to be complemented by measures to compensate the effects of ageing

16. In conclusion… • Policies aimed at affecting demographic and migratory flows should not be considered in isolation from other policies, such as housing, labour market, integration of migrants, education, innovation and environmental quality

17. DEMIFER dissemination plan • Final seminar • a lunch seminar in Brussels in cooperation with DG Regio • the main findings and policy implications of the DEMIFER project are presented to invited EU policy makers, elected representatives and national/regional representations • Policy briefs • 2-4 page leaflets that very briefly introduce some of the main findings and policy implications, aimed at policy makers • Papers/presentations in seminars & conferences • EPC2010 in Vienna, VASAB in Vilnius, … • Popular scientific articles • the main findings and policy implications • Journal of Nordregio (reaches 4000 practitioners & policy makers in Europe within the fields of spatial and regional development), … • Publication in social science journals

18. Johanna Roto Johanna.roto@nordregio.se NORDREGIO Mark ter Veer Mark.terveer@pbl.nl NEAA Thank You!