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DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS. Warren Smith Data Analyst, Barnstable County Dept. of Human Services and Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod. “CHARTING THE COURSE” Power in Aging Collaborative Planning Summit November 9, 2007 Barnstable Senior Center.

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

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  1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Warren Smith Data Analyst, Barnstable County Dept. of Human Services and Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod “CHARTING THE COURSE” Power in Aging Collaborative Planning Summit November 9, 2007 Barnstable Senior Center

  2. Today’s Presentation“What We Know About Older Cape Codders” DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS: Cape Cod’s Older Population Individuals Households with Age 65+ Persons

  3. Demographics of Cape Cod’s Older Population

  4. Older Population at 2005 0 36,000 Men 45,000 Women

  5. After 10-Years: 2015 58,000 Men 74,000 Women

  6. 2015

  7. Primary Reason For This Population Growth “Baby Boomers”

  8. “Baby Boomers”(19-Year Cohort: 1946-1964) • Post WWII Babies • Youngest is Age 44 • Oldest is Age 61 • Started Turning 60 Last Year

  9. Cape’s “Boomers” in 2006 (latest US Census estimates) 59,000 “Boomers” (Ages 43-60) 26% of Total Population: - 31,000 females (53%) - 28,000 males (47%) Oldest “Boomers” Became Eligible For COA Services in 2006 (the “leading edge” is here!) Turning Age 60 at rate of 8 per day (one every 3 hours!)

  10. “Boomers” plus Senior/Elders Comprise 55% of the Cape’s Population

  11. Older Population’s Income • Aggregate Social Security Income $562 mil • Aggregate Retirement Income $630 mil _______ $1.2 Billion plus earned income, dividends, etc. Now That’s POWER IN AGING!

  12. Individuals “Independence” is key!

  13. Aging in Place “Aging in place is growing older without having to move.”[1] “Some 70% of seniors spend the rest of their life in the place where they celebrated their 65th birthday.”[1] FUTURE: 90% of “Baby Boomers” plan to “age in place” (Would mean about 70,000 on Cape by 2015, 100,000 by 2025,. . . . ) 1. Source: “Resource For Aging In Place,” www.seniorresource.com/ageinpl.htm

  14. Mobility(“Getting Out and About” on Cape Cod) • 65+ Drive an Automobile = 45,000 .. 5,800 are ages 75-84 .. 2,500 are age 85+ • Non-Drivers = 13,000 • Can’t Walk ¼ Mile = 13,000 (to bus, etc.) • Have “Go-Outside-Home" Disability = 11,000 (alone, to doctor or shopping)

  15. Illness Annual Diagnoses: Cancer.……………………….925 Heart Disease……….2,625 Respiratory…………….1,500 Total Cases: Alzheimer’s = 1,500 persons (includes undiagnosed cases) Impaired Vision = 11,000 Impaired Hearing = 21,000

  16. Mortality Life Expectancy:(USA-level data in 2003) At AgeMalesFemales 60 80.4 years 83.7 years 65 81.8 84.7 70 83.4 85.9 75 85.5 87.5 80 87.9 89.5 85 90.9 92.0 90 94.3 95.0 95 98.1 98.5 100 102.2 102.5 Deaths: Age 60+ persons are dying at a rate of 6 per day (death rate is slowing down!) Note: People are turning age 60 at a rate of 8 per day Age 60+ Net Gain = +2 per day

  17. Households With Someone Age 65+

  18. Household Profile(Someone in household is age 65+) • Number of Households = 35,000 36% of all households • One Adult LIVING ALONE = 29% • Average Size 2.0 persons • AT LEAST ONE PERSON Retired = 81% • EVERYONE in Household Retired = 61%

  19. Household Profile(continued) • Have disabled/chronically ill person(s) = 25% • Include “Frail” Elders = 20% • Receive Home Health/Aide Services = 7% • Uses PUBLIC Transportation (RTA) = 5% • Uses PRIVATE Transportation = 13% • (includes taxi, family/friends, • COA, P&B, etc.)

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