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Demographic Trends in Religion: Impact of Affiliation and Fertility

This analysis delves into the demographic trends in religion, highlighting the power of religious institutions, individual piety, and the implications of affiliation data on country projections. Exploring secularization, stability, and resurgence, the study emphasizes the link between religiosity and fertility rates in Europe and the USA, projecting growth in conservative Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. With a focus on the interplay of values, fertility, and religious conservatism, the research offers insights into future religious landscapes.

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Demographic Trends in Religion: Impact of Affiliation and Fertility

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  1. Demographic Trends in Religion Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

  2. 2 Aspects of Religion • Power of Religious Institutions over State • Individual piety • I focus on second aspect – tends to affect the first

  3. Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians) • Applying affiliation data to country demographic projections

  4. Church of England Baptisms as % of live births

  5. Broad Trends • Secularization: Catholic and part-Catholic Europe + Canada/Australasia/’blue’ states + southern cone of Latin America + global elite • Stability: Protestant Europe + USA+Hinduism • Resurgence: Islam, Pentecostalism (Asia, Latin America + Global South)

  6. Demography is Key • Inglehart: more are born in religious countries, so make up a larger share of global total. ***Send immigrants to nonreligious countries • Lesthaeghe: once everyone has access to contraception and family planning, values matter more for fertility • Conclusion: Some may become secular, but more will become religiously conservative

  7. Religiosity and Fertility: Europe and USA United States, 2006 (GSS)

  8. Will They Keep the Kids? • Yes • ‘Strict’ religions more successful in inspiring commitment, retaining members • High fertility + high retention = high growth • Hutterites: 400 in 1880, 50,000 today. From .7% to 3.3% of Canadian prairie farm population, 1951-81 • Mormons: now outnumber Jews for those born after 1945

  9. Muslims will grow from 3-5% of W. Europe’s population to region of 12-15% by 2050

  10. Projected Muslim Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios Source: Goujon et al. 2006

  11. Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios Source: Goujon et al. 2006

  12. Similar Dynamics in USA

  13. Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

  14. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

  15. Conclusion • Religious – especially conservative religious, have larger families, retain members well • State religious authorities matter more for fertility in authoritarian societies; conservative movements and individuals count for more in democratic ones • Expect a growth in conservative Islam, Judaism and Christianity; Some erosion of moderate religion; Only Catholic Europe will see much secularization

  16. Demographic Trends in Religion Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

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