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NMM, ARW in NCEP Operations

Pre-WRF NMM at NCEP May 2000 : nonhydrostatic option released in upgrade to NCEP’s workstation Eta May 2001 : NMM model equations, solution techniques & test results published in Janjic, Gerrity, and Nickovic , 2001, Mon. Wea. Rev. also Janjic , 2003, Meteor. & Atmos. Phys.

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NMM, ARW in NCEP Operations

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  1. Pre-WRF NMM at NCEP May 2000: nonhydrostatic option released in upgrade to NCEP’s workstation Eta May 2001: NMM model equations, solution techniques & test results published in Janjic, Gerrity, and Nickovic, 2001, Mon. Wea. Rev. also Janjic, 2003, Meteor. & Atmos. Phys. February 2002: HiResWindow runs upgraded to use 8 km NMM replaces 10 km Eta (hydrostatic) February 2002: On-Call Emergency Response (OCER) capability begins using 4 km NMM to support HYSPLIT May 2003: Fire Weather / IMET Support runs implemented using 8 km NMM WRF-ARW at NCEP September 2004: HiResWindow first WRF implementation of 10 km WRF-ARW v1.3 June 2005: HiResWindow upgraded to use 5.8 km WRF-ARW with explicit convection December 2005: Short Range Ensemble Forecasting system adds 3 members using 45 km WRF-ARW v2.0 September 2007: HiResWindow expanded domain and upgraded to 5.1 km WRF-ARW v2.2.1 October 2009: SREF WRF-ARW upgraded to v2.2.1, add 2 members and increase resolution to 35 km NMM, ARW in NCEP Operations

  2. April 2004 thru present: NSSL/SPC Spring Program, daily developmental run of 4.5 km WRF-NMM with explicit convection September 2004: HiResWindow first WRF implementation of 8 km WRF-NMM v1.3 replaces pre-WRF NMM June 2005: HiResWindow upgraded to use 5.1 km WRF-NMM with explicit convection December 2005: Short Range Ensemble Forecasting system adds 3 members using 40 km WRF-NMM v2.0 June 2006: NAM runs use 12 km WRF-NMM v2.1 & WRF-GSI replacing Eta & Eta-3DVar September 2007: HiResWindow expanded domain and upgraded to 4 km WRF-NMM v2.2.1 December 2008: final major NAM/NMM upgrade WRF-NMM in NCEP Operations

  3. Runtime & optimal node apportionment for NMMB nesting with a Fire Wx nest over CONUS (30 nodes): 12 hr fcst in 1619 s [Matt Pyle] 12 km parent 3/30 or 10% 6 km Alaska nest 2/30 or 7% 4 km CONUS nest 17/30 or 57% 1.33 km CONUS FireWx nest 5/30 or 17% 3 km Hawaii nest 1.5/30 or 5% 3 km Puerto Rico nest 1.5/30 or 5%

  4. WRF-NMM takes 3.6 times longer to run comparable nesting with Fire Wx nest over CONUS (30 nodes): 12 hr fcst in 5857 s [Matt Pyle] 12 km parent 30/30 or 100% 4 km* Alaska nest 30/30 or 100% 4 km CONUS nest 30/30 or 100% 1.33 km CONUS FireWx nest 30/30 or 100% 4 km* Hawaii nest 30/30 or 100% 4 km* Puerto Rico nest 30/30 or 100%

  5. More Stats Showing Improved Computational Speed & Efficiency • Runtime for NAM with 5 nests on 72 nodes: Current opnl code: > 4 hours New code: 70 minutes • New NAM is doing 11 times more work than the current NAM, but uses only 7.7 times more compute resources! • IBM estimates the NMMB will easily scale to at least 24,000 processors (if we could ever get them)

  6. Why Does NMMB Run So Much Faster?

  7. Hypothetical NMMB Simultaneous Run Global [with Igor & Julia] and NAM [with CONUS nest] 12 km NAM NMMB 9 km Julia NMMB 4 km NAM-nest NMMB 9 km Igor NMMB 12 km NAM NMMB 27 km Global NMMB 27 km Global NMMB

  8. Movable Storm Scale • SPC’s 2022 Requirement • Inside every HRRRE member • Movable domain update SSEF: • 1 km movable regional domain • 20-30 member storm scale ensemble • advanced state-of-the-science DA • run every 1 hr with forecasts to 18-24 hr • focused on “severe weather of the day” areas • In 2014, NAM upgrade could include • Movable FireWx nest tracking tropical storm • Movable FireWx nest with prescribed motion

  9. Superstorm Sandy was ‘contained’ in fixed domainNAM 1.33 km nest from 18z 10/29/12SLP, 1-h Accum Precip (in), 10-m wind (kt)

  10. Superstorm Sandy was ‘contained’ in fixed domain NAM 1.33 km nest from 18z 10/29/121-h Maximum Wind Speed Gust (kt)

  11. Hurricane Irene was not ‘contained’ in fixed domainNAM 1.33 km nest from 18z 10/29/12SLP, 1-h AccumPrecip (in), 10-m wind (kt)

  12. Courtesy Brad Ferrier, Eric Aligo & Dusan Jovic 1.33 km Moving nest

  13. Courtesy Brad Ferrier, Eric Aligo & Dusan Jovic 1.33 km Moving nest

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